Phoenix Spree Deutschland Share Discussion Threads

[lookhere1] 09/8/2023 14:34

i am new to this chat,

[cerrito] 03/8/2023 08:40

Just read an interesting up to date report on the Berlin residential property market by Guthman who agree that the market has stabilised. Interesting comments on fuel efficiency which no doubt will be picked up in the interims. According to Guthman the average price per sq m in Berlin is Euro 2800 and no surprise that PSDL is higher at Euro 3800.
I might buy more if it goes sub 190.

[cerrito] 03/8/2023 08:01

Given that 78pc of Properties split into condominiums and the discount of the share price to NAV agree sensible to sell properties at a discount and return funds to shareholders though the question is how many others are doing the same.

[cerrito] 23/6/2023 13:10

News today that German house prices have fallen 6.8pc put the weak share price in PSDL in context.
To get a more Berlin focused outlook if you google Bloomberg Berlin Property prices, you should get an April story which says for already Built Berlin flats, in Q1 prices fell 0.3pc and in q4 2022 5.3pc.
I am not expecting a sudden increase in the price here but as I have no need for cash I will not be selling as I expect the price to bump along in the 185/205 range and not expecting any major change in the euro:£ FX rate.

[cerrito] 06/6/2023 16:26

Thanks HugePants for that.
My main comment from yesterday's announcement is that we are paying the adviser for IR and they do nothing ie no webinars no presentations.
Interesting to read the clear tone in which they said you are not welcome at the AGM.
I ask myself if there are other owners of property in Berlin who are under more financial pressure than PSDL and hence will be willing to sell at a lower price with the result that PSDL will sell little on the wholesale market.
My gut tells me that anyone who bought today will not loose money but have not summoned the energy to buy.

[hugepants] 06/6/2023 13:20

A mention in the recent TRY final results;

Our exposure to German residential was the poorest asset allocation decision of the year. I remained convinced, for too long, that the market fundamentals of virtually full occupancy and (sub-market) regulated rents would underpin investor sentiment. The fact that even at prices a year ago all of these names were trading below the reinstatement cost of the underlying assets mattered not a jot. The market focused exclusively on the impact of the cost of debt. During the year we reduced exposure in the larger names (Vonovia, LEG) but maintained the holding in Phoenix Spree, the small Berlin focused vehicle. It is an externally managed fund which has an annually renewed contract with QSix, the manager. Its assets are all prime Berlin, where open-market rents continue to grow. The share price total return in the year was -50%. I remain convinced that once prices stabilise the smaller companies will benefit disproportionately from the impact of portfolio sales. With a market cap of just GBP190m and the share price at half the asset value, it is an excellent example of a portfolio of assets which are no longer benefiting from being held in a listed company.

[peckers56] 05/6/2023 19:56

Add /a2418556 to the link address to visir pages.

[hugepants] 05/6/2023 08:49

Interesting rns

[davebowler] 20/4/2023 14:49

I'll mention the Barclays problem to PSDL as I have my ISA with them too!

[cerrito] 17/4/2023 16:53

While I am reluctant to make comparisons between PSDL and Vonovia, I see that the share price of both have recuperated abit in the last few days.
I note that my online broker Barclays does not allow me to purchase more PSDL shares no doubt because PSDL have not completed some paperwork.
Anyone else having problems making on line purchases of PSDL??
I need to say Barclays are not very flexible and I would not reccomend them to anyone and indeed if I was younger would close my account with them.
At the same time I get the impression that PSDL probably do not see completing Barclays paperwork requirement as a top priority.

[davebowler] 17/4/2023 06:05

hTTps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/trust-watch-scottish-mortgage-and-a-smaller-band-of-bargains/

[dennisbergkamp] 08/4/2023 09:56

Berlin is very different to the rest of Germany. Property was traditionally cheaper than most other large cities in Germany as the tenancy laws are more pro-tenant.

I can’t recall exactly but something like 10% every 3 years? They had this local rent cap law introduced in ‘19 which was repealed by their highest court a couple of years ago which should have got this moving in the right direction.

Rental income will stay solid but totally right in terms of interest rate hikes affecting underlying profit

Let’s see where it settles

D

[carlopig1] 08/4/2023 08:20

My comments re the business model not working was forward looking. Whilst there is no formal covenant concern, pfandbrief lenders become uncomfortable when leverage gets above 50%.
Ability to raise rents in line with costs becomes harder if tenant churn slows. The gap between revenue and refi costs will increasingly hurt as we approach 2025/26.
In such an environment who knows where NAV will be never mind the share price with no dividend to support it.
Whilst I would like to think more positively the reality is German property has significant headwinds facing them in the coming years.

[spectoacc] 07/4/2023 08:07

There's two angles surely. One is to say PSDL has a NAV of 423p, and is therefore seriously undervalued. Even valuations falling another quarter from here doesn't get to current s/p, albeit NAV would fall further than 25% with gearing, and covenants do need watching.

Second angle is to say it's a £174m mkt cap co bringing in £26m/year in rent, which doesn't seem likely to change all that much. Ignore the losses being reported - non-cash valuation falls.

As to whether the PSDL business model is busted - the one that sells condos is paused, likely temporarily. The one that owns a lot of rentals and brings in decent cashflow looks largely fine.

[carlopig1] 06/4/2023 17:08

Sadly I don't agree. The move in property values post December 22 has been dramatically lower. (Deutsche Bank put out a note that resi rpoperty in GermNy can fall 25%). The PSDL NAV will be down at least 10% next time and possibly up to 25%. All the property companies have cancelled their dividends. This is all about preserving cash. It is clearly far cheaper to rent than to buy although the supply demand equation is getting worse. That said if interest rates stay at these levels or increase then the PSDL model doesn't work. Best you can hope for is a low ball bid for the company at some point but PE buyers are waiting for more pain before tabling a bid.

[dennisbergkamp] 06/4/2023 13:43

This originally came to market at 50p.

Property in Berlin has 10x’d since then

Having exited a physical property recently out there, this would be a way to keep an interest - but a divi resurrection would inspire confidence - I guess the real issue in Berlin rentals hasn’t changed and probably worsened - the tenant has incredible power

D

[cerrito] 03/4/2023 20:38

Thanks davebowler for that link.
Anyone here privileged to be on the conference call he referred to?? They do not believe in IR for private investors.
I have most of my shares with my full service broker and checked to see if there had been any analyst reports out but apparently none--not even from broker Numis.Perhaps we will get some thing from Edison.
Vonovia has a bigger discount but not comparable given geographical diversification and debt structure.

[spectoacc] 03/4/2023 08:54

Averaged PSDL. Not calling the bottom - look at that chart - and a lot of other possible homes for the money atm. But PSDL isn't expensive here.

[gopher] 01/4/2023 01:14

Thanks - very interesting as AH says the problem is that you are not been paid to wait rather than any unsoundness in business.

[davebowler] 31/3/2023 17:48

at 18 minutes -Andrew Mc Hattie -(eventually) a positive slant at the end of the commentary !

[cerrito] 30/3/2023 08:25

Read this in the FT this morning to give some context
Quote
Meanwhile shares in European real estate groups are set for their worst month since the start of the pandemic, as investors bet that the weeks of banking turmoil will tighten access to credit and send property valuations plummeting. The MSCI Europe Real Estate index of large and mid-cap property companies has tumbled close to its lowest level since early 2009, falling 24 per cent since the start of March, massively underperforming the region-wide Stoxx 600 equity index, which is down 2.4 per cent over the same period.

[gopher] 30/3/2023 01:35

The company is trading at 50% of NAV which is likely to be accurate. I am not an expert on the Berlin residential property market and await comment on likely direction. It was rated as one of the cheaper capital cities in Europe so hopeful for a revival when current round of rate rises ceases.I shall be interested to see how far rental revenue increase this year and whilst there is no dividend the company is vulnerable given the NAV discount.

[spectoacc] 29/3/2023 09:15

Not starting that again ;) Buybacks did of course increase the NAV. But agree doing buybacks over being able to maintain divi is daft.

Is it possible the REITs get to that stage? Maybe, but they're compelled by REIT rules to pay out 90% of income, so they don't have the option of retaining it for the leaner times (which we may soon be entering).

Agree with you on Opportunity Cost - there's a lot of other cheap-looking stuff out there atm. Time will tell whether it actually is cheap, or only FV.

[kenmitch] 29/3/2023 09:08

The bears were right. I’ve taken the loss today. Cancellation of the dividend was the key reason as unlike with the likes of EBOX there’s no income while holders wait for that share price recovery. Bearing in mind the still big discount the share price reaction seems over harsh so a good chance this is the low. But my enthusiasm for PDSL was wrong and even when the share price recovers it will be without the added bonus of big dividends available from so many if the alternatives and I would much rather invest the cash raised from the PDSL sale in those.

The buybacks were definitively a waste of money. Other REITS buying back more heavily than PDSL like SREI also wasted a lot of money on buybacks at much higher prices. If nothing else current events just might reduce the clamour for them.