Phoenix Spree Deutschland Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 01/3/2023 16:12

Good read that.

All the Teutonic residentials heading south again. eg VNA down 5%+

[davebowler] 20/2/2023 16:56

HTtps://www.edisongroup.com/equity/phoenix-spree-deutschland/?utm_campaign=Real%20estate&utm_medium=

[cerrito] 13/2/2023 22:47

I went through the portfolio valuation. At June 22 it was e820m up from e801m at Dec 21 and then declined to e775m at Dec 22. Adjustments need to be made for capex and condominium Disposals but does show that H2 22 was ugly.

[cerrito] 13/2/2023 22:35

I guess the share price increase today followed the good election result on Sunday for the CDU but my reading of the situation is that we may well continue with the present coalition.
Too bad that as the current share price is just over half EPRA there is no financial flexibility to do buy backs. I guess we need to brace ourselves for a dividend reduction.
It seems the company will be marching on the spot. No purchases of assets and selling condominiums where they can but the figures involved likely to be small.
Sterling investors like me have had a tailwind over recent months with the revaluation of the euro against sterling but my reading of the tea leaves is that this has largely run its course.
Good that no immediate pressure from the banks and at least for now a stable shareholder base with just one change of holdings RNS since last May.
Possible that with the disconnect between the EPRA and the share price we could get taken out but my instinct is that this is unlikely.

[davebowler] 11/2/2023 17:38

hTTps://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/11/berlin-car-free-city-plan-culture-war

[mwj1959] 08/2/2023 13:25

Agree. Bought some.

[spooky] 07/2/2023 08:06

Too cheap IMO.

[spectoacc] 07/2/2023 08:05

Suggestion of bigger NAV falls to come (& what if all those Ukrainians go home?) but there's a lot to like at PSDL IMO.

[hugepants] 12/1/2023 14:55

Still stuck at lows here but the peer group are doing better eg. Vonovia +18% last couple of weeks.

[davebowler] 06/12/2022 16:00

For example, despite 'incredibly resilient earnings', German residential property companies, such as London-listed Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSDL), plummeted 45% on averagehTTPs://citywire.com/new-model-adviser/news/tr-property-slumps-33-in-real-estate-interest-rates-panic/a2404234?re=103675&refea=252901

[kenmitch] 27/11/2022 16:05

Cerrito.

Spot on. As so often when Trusts use buybacks as a discount control mechanism they don’t work. PSDL and SREI are just 2 recent examples.

[cerrito] 27/11/2022 11:38

Especially as per the statement in the interims we are unlikely to see share buybacks any time soon.
With the benefit of hindsight was the E13m spent in H2 2021 on share buybacks a good use of our money, however much it gratified me at the time ??

[skyship] 24/11/2022 10:44

Certainly represents value from an asset point of view; but what is there to close that near 50% NAV discount - certainly not the yield!?

[cerrito] 21/11/2022 11:55

Thanks for that davebowler.
The following is no doubt true
quote
but its strategy for splitting and selling individual apartments into the private market will be more difficult in the current environment.
unquote
but the question is will it be significantly more difficult to warrant the 46pc discount?
Have been watching closely to add but have yet to do so

[davebowler] 19/11/2022 10:29

....Nick Greenwood in IC  ... Property companies have been very out of favour, especially if the yield from the underlying portfolio is quite tight. Many have been hit quite hard, and property yields are lower in Germany. Phoenix Spree Deutschland has been a laggard for much of the year. With the macroeconomic issues in Germany there have been few buyers for a Berlin-focused property trust. Rent in Berlin is still very low, so we aren't concerned about the trust's ability to collect, but its strategy for splitting and selling individual apartments into the private market will be more difficult in the current environment. However, in Berlin there will always be demand as there is a housing shortage – it does not change the structural attractions of Berlin. The trust had a NAV of 488.7p and share price of 264p as of the end of October, and traded at a 46 per cent discount to NAV.  

[hugepants] 13/11/2022 18:51

I'm a bit perplexed Vonovia is +25% the last month and this flat.

[cerrito] 13/11/2022 18:36

a sale later friday of 5407 shares seems to have put the cat among the positionsand as far as I could see no purchase for less than 250.

[ghhghh] 11/11/2022 13:51

Looks interesting but sod all director buying. Why should we if they are not willing to cough up?

[cerrito] 30/10/2022 10:04

With 70pc of the shares held by those with less than 3pc of the company quite a large proportion must be in the hands of UK private shareholders.
Interesting IR that no attempt to take advantage of webinars/IMC type presentations to reach out to us.

[cerrito] 30/10/2022 08:50

I read the latest Edison report which I thought was good with interest as I have been ruminating taking advantage of the sub 250 p price and buy more.
Finely balanced but will sit on my hands for now.
I note that in the interim statement the Chairman continued to be as I read it downbeat on share buy backs.
One issue is that I do not see the evolution of the pound euro FX rate very clearly.
It would be good to have an IMC type event/presentation with management.
One question I would have would be on the vacancy rate. The headline is high at about 7pc but they massage it down considerably for the Epra Vacancy rate.

[hugepants] 27/10/2022 15:13

49% discount now to NTA.
Certainly not partaking, so far, in the commercial property bounce

[cerrito] 21/10/2022 16:44

I was surprised when I read the RNS that has just come out saying that Bracebridge has now 15.54% of the voting rights as it gave to me the impression that they had come i from zero or at least sub 3%. Of course as per the annual report as of March 2022 they had 14.29% of the voting rights.
Attractive pricing of PSDL at the moment but have not organized myself to buy more.

[m_kerr] 29/9/2022 21:07

i noticed the bubble on big box a while back. compounding the issue there is the often 10-20 year leases, which lock in those tiny 3-4% yields (i've seen even less than that in continental europe). once the debt needs refinancing that will probably be above that, and then you're paying the bank to hold property, and you can't pay dividends. business model kaput and the retail investors dump. all goes back to the margin of safety, and if you don't buy with one then you get your comeuppance at some point.

[spectoacc] 29/9/2022 19:49

Whilst I agree - being a holder - I can see bigger contagion. Take SREI: 29% LTV, been buying back its own shares, extensive debt duration (tho not 100%), all good. But what's going to happen to the "V" as interest rates move out? (5.5% next year, says the Futures market). If values dropped say 20%, what does that do to LTV, bearing in mind the gearing effect? And where are the covenants set? Isn't hard to imagine a scenario where dividends have to be stopped.

And if values fell 40%? 50%? Can't see it at SREI, but what about Big Box on its teeny yield?

Totally agree on resi, and some are in for an horrendous shock. Some, on longer term fixes, won't feel a thing, but prices are set at the margins. Good luck meeting your mortgage repayments when your heating bill has also doubled, the govnt is clamping down on your wage growth, and inflation elsewhere is running at 10%.

Halifax's SVR? 5.74%!! Interest rates are 2.25%. Next BoE move forecast to be +1.5%. Nearly 1,000 fixed rate mortgage deals pulled from the market. With that 3.5% SVR margin over base, interest rates at 5.5% = 9% SVR. The most popular fix early last year was a 1.6% 2 year. Yes, a chunk of your monthly is repayment not interest, but if the interest element goes from 1.6% to 9%.........

In many ways the market has got there first - did I see PSN is now on a 19% dividend, with net cash? And I still wouldn't buy it.

There is a lot in the price with the REITs, no doubt, but I fear the "lot" still might not be enough. Perhaps the pound can sustainably rally, Kamikwasi get sacked (ideally Truss too), the war in Ukraine end, gas prices return to normal levels, inflation show an unexpectedly sharp drop - there are bull possibilities which would make the REITs a bargain.

Just not convinced any of that will happen. More convincing is that we've run out of road, can't sustainably QE due to inflation, can't sustainably borrow due to Gilt yields, can't influence the energy price. And if that's right, it's going to have a much larger effect than the market is pricing.