Phoenix Spree Deutschland Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 25/3/2022 09:00

Should we expect this to perform poorly so long as the situation with Russia is uncertain?

Will Berliners be able to pay for their rent and their heating bills?

[cerrito] 21/2/2022 10:03

Featured in Questor in the DT a couple of days back.

[spectoacc] 14/2/2022 09:52

Finally sold the last today - only because of liquidity fears over Ukraine.

Good luck holders and HODL'ers.

[cerrito] 12/2/2022 19:58

Thanks for that feedback .
I have read the Edison report and I thought it was an excellent review.

[jonwig] 11/2/2022 09:50

carlopig - "The question was totally ignored. "

They've no choice, if they give you an answer they have to give it to everyone. Mind, most companies find a form of words which is at least civil.

[carlopig] 11/2/2022 09:15

They also emphasized the gap between selling condos above NAV and using proceeds to do share buybacks (alongside new debt facility) at discount to NAV. Makes sense. I specifically asked whether they thought PSD was a target for acquirers like KKR and other PE that have been looking at buying portfolios in the space. The question was totally ignored. Make your own judgement.

[davebowler] 11/2/2022 09:02

Hi Cerrito
It was an encouraging update but no revelations particularly.
They made this point -as does the Edison research-
.... 75% of the Berlin portfolio has been split into condominiums, less than 5% is valued
as such.....
This is just out.

[cerrito] 09/2/2022 19:09

Thanks davebowler for alerting me to the Numis update.
Too bad timing does not work for me and any feedback appreciated

[davebowler] 08/2/2022 09:42

Numis 30 min update this Thursday at 3.15

[davebowler] 08/2/2022 09:40

Liberum;
Event

Phoenix Spree Deutschland's portfolio value rose by 3.7% on a like-for-like basis in H2 2021 to €801.5m. The valuation uplift reflects increased market rents and progress in condominium splitting. Based on the valuation uplift, the EPRA NAV per share is expected to be within a range of €5.60-€5.66 at 31 December 2021, representing a NAV total return of 7.5-8.6% for 2021.


The portfolio value per sqm was €4,225 at December 2021 (Jun-21: €4,075; Dec-20: €3,977). Eight of the properties have been valued as condominiums, with a total value of €39m. The gross fully occupied yield on the portfolio is 2.8%.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland has notarised 23 condominium sales in H2 2021 for a total of €10.9m. The pace of condominium sales has picked up considerably from the first half of the year (€4.3m in H1). The average price achieved was €5,031 per sqm, representing a 19.1% premium to the December 2020 book value. 75% of the Berlin portfolio has been legally split into condominiums and applications are in progress for a further 10%. Legislation is likely to impact the ability of landlords to split condominiums in future. The legislation is not retrospective and should be positive for future sale prices.

The removal of the Mietendeckel has led to the resumption of uplifts on new lettings (28% uplift to passing rents on new leases in December 2021). The company achieved a rent collection rate of 97% in 2021. All of PSDL's leases had been structured to allow for the back payment of rents due for the period during which the Mietendeckel (rent freeze) was in place. PSDL has collected 95% of the €2.1m of back-dated rent which could be claimed from tenants.

Liberum view

The resumption of the asset management strategy to capture the significant reversionary potential across the portfolio will underpin the long-term return profile. Despite the rent freeze legislation, the company was still able to achieve an 8-9% NAV returns during this period. The risk of new legislation remains the key concern, but the company's flexible strategy and efficient capital allocation should enable it to deliver value for shareholders. The material level of buybacks demonstrates a clear belief in the value of the underlying portfolio.

Transaction activity continues to highlight institutional investor demand for Berlin assets. Heimstaden acquired a €5.3bn portfolio of German residential assets (80% in Berlin) from Akelius in September 2021 at a 22% premium to book value. The supply-demand imbalance remains acute, as evidenced by a 9.7% increase in condominium asking prices in the nine months to September 2021. We believe the shares are materially undervalued at a 20.5% discount to NAV.

[jonwig] 08/2/2022 08:19

Cerrito - I'd turn the question on its head, and ask what proportion of your portfolio do you want invested in the UK?

[cerrito] 08/2/2022 07:40

Solid results and well done for what they have done with condominiums.
For me this is largely a FX play and how many of one's assets do you want to have in Euros. The difference in performance of the EPRA NAV in Euros and sterling says it all.
I do not see myself buying or selling and like everyone else on this board will go back to sleep.

[jonwig] 16/10/2021 06:10

Edison note:

[jonwig] 14/10/2021 06:14

It seems that Goldman Sachs has appeared with a 5.3% stake (two successive announcements today).

[spectoacc] 28/9/2021 10:20

Hope to see them buy back more shares.

[hpcg] 28/9/2021 10:14

I'm no longer a holder, having waited for the election to see what happened. I am surprised at the drop really as while there will be a left of centre government it will have to include the Liberals, and there is certainly not the numbers to change the constitution. Still watching given the price action, but I don't see a reason for fear.

[spectoacc] 28/9/2021 09:57

2,586 and falling too - probably for the best. Tho none of the socialist attempts at housing control have anything but the opposite effect to the one intended.

[cerrito] 28/9/2021 09:55

I see that the referendum in Berlin passed by 56%. To me the only surprise was that the vote in favour was not higher.I see that the incoming SPD administration in Berlin not very enthusiastic.
With 2586 residential units, PSDL falls comfortably under the 3000 cut off point.
Perhaps people wanting exposure to Berlin property without expropriation risk will buy PSDL.

[riverman77] 24/9/2021 11:37

The only problem with that is the amount of condominiums they are selling is minuscule. Unless they step it up its not going to have any impact on NAV

[cerrito] 24/9/2021 11:18

Thanks davebowler for posting this so promptly

[spectoacc] 24/9/2021 08:04

"...Disposals at a price...representing a 25.3% premium to book value and a 38.8% premium to to the average residential portfolio value at June 2021. At a 13% discount to NAV, PSDL represents an attractive long-term investment."

Hard to argue with that.

[davebowler] 24/9/2021 07:59

Liberum;
Improved rental growth drives H1 performance

Mkt Cap £378m | Share price 404p | Prem/(disc) -12.9% | Div yield 1.6%

Event

Phoenix Spree Deutschland has generated a 3.6% NAV total return in H1 2021. EPRA NAV was €5.42 per share at 30 June 2021 (31 December 2020: €5.28). NAV performance has been driven by a 2.5% like-for-like revaluation gain in the period. The valuation uplift reflects increased market rents following the removal of the rent freeze and progress in condominium splitting.


The portfolio value per sqm was €4,075 at June 2021 (December 2020: €3,977). Eight of the properties have been valued as condominiums, with a total value of €43m. The valuation assumes market rents for the full period (the December valuation had assumed the rent freeze legislation was in place for five years). Like-for-like rental growth of 4.6% for the 12 months to June 2021 represents an improvement on the prior year. New lettings in Berlin were completed at an average 35.8% premium to passing rents. The gross fully occupied yield on the portfolio is 2.9%. Rent collection has remained robust at 97% and the EPRA vacancy rate has dropped to a low of 1.3%.


Phoenix Spree Deutschland has notarised 13 condominium sales in H1 2021 for a total of €4.3m. The pace of condominium sales was hampered by Covid restrictions during H1. The average price achieved was €4,821 per sqm, representing a 25.4% premium to book value. The sale price represents a 15.9% premium to the average value for the Berlin portfolio. 74% of the Berlin portfolio has been legally split into condominiums and applications are in progress for a further 11%.

All of PSDL's leases had been structured to allow for the back payment of rents due for the period during which the Mietendeckel (rent freeze) was in place. PSDL has collected 92% of the €2.1m of back-dated rent which could be claimed from tenants.

Net LTV was relatively stable at 33.7% (33.1% at December 2020). The weighted average maturity of the company's debt is now 5.3 years with an average cost of 2.0%.

Liberum view

The company's outlook is notably bullish and we expect continued strong performance from PSDL's portfolio over the medium term due to the ongoing supply demand imbalance. The availability of rental stock has reduced as a result of the rent freeze legislation. Despite a significant increase in rents over the last decade, Berlin rental costs remain lower than other large German cities. The company's confidence in its long-term growth prospects were demonstrated by the enhanced share buyback programme. The removal of the rent freeze legislation will enable the company to return to its highly profitable asset management strategy. The reversionary upside across the portfolio was evidenced in the 36% uplift achieved on new lettings and the company expects to increase capex spend to capture further gains.

There is always the potential for new rent regulations but PSDL remains well-placed to deal with any material changes in legislation. The condominium disposal programme can be accelerated if required. The upside from condominium disposals was demonstrated in H1 and in transactions post period end. Since June, PSDL has notarised a further €3.9m of disposals at a price per sqm of €5,655, representing a 25.3% premium to book value and a 38.8% premium to to the average residential portfolio value at June 2021. At a 13% discount to NAV, PSDL represents an attractive long-term investment.

[cerrito] 24/9/2021 07:44

Note that cash spent on buy backs in H121 was E7m compared to E1.7m in H120 and E4.3m in H120.
The small reduction in the £ dividend reminds us of the current FX headwind.
The company was correct to remind us of the dampening effect of any interest rate increase.
I have not followed the comments on rent controls in the TV debates.

[cerrito] 13/8/2021 16:20

A confusing RNS ref Thames River
To me it suggests they have come in first time at 8.5% but in fact it is a reduction from 12.68% when the AR was published April time.

[cerrito] 12/8/2021 11:39

Thanks from me as well, Rambutan.
Would have been helpful if the company had clarified that in its last TU.