Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[robsy2] 18/8/2015 09:11

When you look at the share price over the last month or so ,it seems evident that there is a large community of people who already know the results and have a view on what the herd is going to think of them.
I will be surprised if we move much tmw one direction or the other.
R2

[stevenrevell] 18/8/2015 08:41

Results Tomoz ?

[aleman] 13/8/2015 13:23

Results are a week from today.

[jonwig] 06/8/2015 07:16

This is exactly what management were looking to when they restructured the debt last year. Apart from the obvious advantages, it shows we have excellent management quality here.

Two things, though ...

"Issue hybrid securities". This could mean lots of stuff, from very subordinate debt to convertibles, to - - - . Whatever, I doubt ordinary PIs are going to be offered a chance to subscribe.

No mention of debt use to do sector consolidation. They've been quiet about this since the Swiss Re thing fell through.

[rcturner2] 06/8/2015 07:10

Yep pleased about that, glad I got back in here.

[skinny] 06/8/2015 07:09

Phoenix Group Holdings ("Phoenix" and, together with its subsidiaries, the "Group") is pleased to announce that its two principal operating life companies, Phoenix Life Limited and Phoenix Life Assurance Limited have been assigned the Insurer Financial Strength ("IFS") ratings of "A" with a stable outlook by Fitch Ratings.

This is Phoenix's inaugural rating and reflects the Group's strong capital position, cash flows and track record. The rating also reflects the strength of the Group's competitive position as a leading closed life fund consolidator.

The "A" ratings for the Group's life companies and investment grade ratings for the Group's senior and hybrid debt mark the achievement of an ambition set out during 2014.


more....

[robsy2] 05/8/2015 07:58

yes lets see. Looking good for the next milestone,900p.
R2

[scburbs] 03/8/2015 14:46

Half year results due 20 August.

Looks like National Provident Life Assurance merger into Phoenix Life Assurance completed on 30 June which should provide a benefit to capital surpluses.

hxxp://www.phoenixlife.co.uk/site-services/npi-policy-transfer.aspx?from=NPI-Home

[mister md] 20/7/2015 13:01

making a bit of a comeback of late ...

[rcturner2] 27/5/2015 09:34

I sold yesterday, took my profits here, great run from 650p. It seems to have run out of steam a bit and I needed some funds for a small cap investment (AMO). Good luck to all who remain.

[stevenrevell] 15/5/2015 09:58

Will we hit £9 ?

[jonwig] 30/4/2015 09:36

Right, thanks scburbs. So it's not quite trivial, but not particularly significant.

[scburbs] 30/4/2015 08:38

Hi Jonwig,

5% decrease in annuitant mortality takes £140m off MCEV and a 5% decrease in non-annuitant mortality add £15m to MCEV.

The 5% is PHNX sensitivity analysis, the change per the article looks more like 2% on life expectancy. By the time this comes to pass the PHNX annuity book will be much smaller anyway given new pension freedoms.

[jonwig] 30/4/2015 08:20

Longevity greater than assumed by the ONS:

... researchers, from Imperial College London, predict by 2030 men will be living 2.4 years longer than official estimates from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) suggest. And women gain an extra year.



So some provision will need to be made here, and the MCEV reduced, though I don't know how much.

[rcturner2] 24/4/2015 07:59

Fair point. About £200m of continuing costs in last years finals.

[scburbs] 24/4/2015 07:50

They are committed to sustaining the dividend and it is covered by the c. £1bn of parent company cash, but they won't cover this years dividend with £250m of cashflow. There are multiple other parent company level costs (interest, pensions etc.). However, they are set to make up this years shortfall over the remaining target period and so parent company level cash should recommence increasing next year.

[rcturner2] 24/4/2015 07:44

Annual dividend payment is £120m, so well covered by the cash generation.

[jonwig] 24/4/2015 07:11

£87m for the quarter against target £200 - 250m, so that's OK. At least the market was warned about lower target.

[skinny] 24/4/2015 07:04

Phoenix Group announces cash generation of £87 million in the three months to 31 March 2015 and remains on track to meet all its financial targets

Financial and operational highlights in the three months to 31 March 2015

· £87 million of cash generation1 in the 3 months to 31 March 2015 (3 months to 31 March 2014: £235 million).

· Total holding company cash2 of £1,032 million at 31 March 2015 (FY14: £988 million).

· Estimated IGD3 surplus of £1.2 billion at 31 March 2015 (FY14: £1.2 billion).

· Estimated PLHL ICA3 surplus of £0.7 billion at 31 March 2015 (FY14: £0.7 billion).

· Estimated Phoenix Life free surplus of £271 million at 31 March 2015 following distribution of cash to holding companies (FY14: £196 million).

· The Group continues to expect to be well capitalised under the Solvency II capital regime, with the Group capital position under Solvency II expected to be in excess of the current PLHL ICA surplus, subject to regulatory approval.

· Continued discussions with rating agencies to seek an investment grade rating for Phoenix Group, with process expected to complete during 2015.

· Impact of new pension freedoms within the expected range of outcomes, with the existing partnership with Just Retirement expanded to allow Phoenix Life to offer a wider range of products and services to our customer base.

· Acquired a £0.3 billion portfolio of equity release mortgages, in line with the strategy to diversify the asset portfolio by investing in new asset classes to support the Group's annuity liabilities.

· On track to meet financial targets, comprising
o operating companies' cash generation of £200 - £250 million in 2015, and £2.8 billion between 2014 and 2019; and
o cumulative incremental MCEV enhancements of £400 million in the period from 2014 - 2016.

[scburbs] 23/4/2015 12:55

Q1 IMS up tomorrow. Q1 cash flow likely to be rather underwhelming given low target.

Also debt presentation on website from beginning of the month.

hxxp://www.thephoenixgroup.com/~/media/Files/P/Phoenix-Group-V2/Attachments/pdf/2015-phoenix-group-debt-investor-update.pdf

[envirovision] 22/4/2015 14:03

Canaccord Genuity broker note out today, verdict "Hold" price target £8.50

[jonwig] 10/4/2015 11:35

Hyden - your analysis makes sense.

[hyden] 10/4/2015 10:31

And this benefits PHNX because the LifeCo will have reserved on the basis of the GAR being exercised and if it isn't then the reserves are instead returned to the parent. :-)

[hyden] 10/4/2015 10:28

Enviro, I don't think so. I admit I am no expert on GAR's but I expect the policy conditions state that the insured has the option to purchase an annuity on very specific terms at a guaranteed rate. This would imply that if the insured chose different terms then the GAR would not apply. So, if the insured elects to receive some or all of their 'pot' in cash then they simply receive the value of their pot and the GAR does not apply.

[rcturner2] 10/4/2015 09:53

Some of the cash figures I have seen bandied about for cashing in annuities have been pretty poor, no one is going to get their money back.