Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 06/12/2016 10:11

A brief mention of Phoenix in the IC, in an article about rights issues:

"Phoenix Group's recent decision to buy Abbey Life for £935m looks to be a much shrewder move. After much media speculation, the life insurance fund specialist finally convinced Deutsche Bank to cede its ownership for 23 per cent below the traditional measure of the book's value. Deutsche's perilous financial situation made it an eager seller, leaving Phoenix, and those who backed the £735m rights issue, with a potential bargain.

Abbey Life's unit-linked vehicles require less capital than guaranteed products such as annuities, so there's a chance it will lift Phoenix's Solvency II ratio. Marcus Barnard at Numis reckons the acquisition could boost future cash flows by £1.6bn, and ensure that the extremely attractive dividend continues to grow. Based on these estimates, the shares, which have barely moved since the agreement was first announced, are worth picking up."

[orinocor] 01/12/2016 11:26

Weakness here may just be general market jitters due to the Italian referendum this week-end.

[speedsgh] 01/12/2016 09:07

Brief written interview (2 pages) with Phoenix Life's Andy Moss...

Firing Line: Phoenix Life's Andy Moss -

[rcturner2] 01/12/2016 07:32

Anything under 750p is a bargain in my opinion.

[jonwig] 01/12/2016 06:51

Regarding the share price, MCEV is sensitive to interest rate increases/swap rates. There's reference to this in the annual reports and we discussed it here, though not recently. The market tends to get jitters from time to time about this sort of thing.

PHNX has made two decent acquisitions this year. Chesnara has just bought L&G's Dutch life business at a very big discount. I think Solvency II is causing big companies to dispose of non-core operations at a discount, benefiting both parties. The only constraints will be the appetite of shareholders for more fundraising and the time and effort in integrating new operations. I imagine there won't be more for a while.

[garycook] 01/12/2016 04:00

Just think long term,and a possible 25% upside,and a juicy 7% Dividend yield,if you buy now around 710p

[rcturner2] 30/11/2016 18:36

A large increase in the number of shares will have some effect and may drag on the price for a while.

[orinocor] 30/11/2016 18:22

So can anyone explain the continuing weakness in the share price? That's quite a share price drop the last couple of weeks.

[jonwig] 30/11/2016 17:36

Longevity swap: 2014 AR, p.11:


We completed a transaction to re-balance exposure to longevity risk from the PGL Pension Scheme. This involved Phoenix Life Limited de-risking certain with-profit funds (via the closure of a legacy longevity indemnity agreement with a Group holding company) and
entering into a longevity swap insurance (covering approximately £900 million of PGL
Pension Scheme liabilities) which was simultaneously reinsured on a 50% quota share
basis. The overall impact of the transaction on the Group MCEV was a gain of £91 million.

Surrender and transfer penalties. Addressed as a risk in the latest prospectus. Revision of pension freedom policies by new chancellor should (imo) limit the scope for these.

As danger said (post #2002) your arguments were largely content-free.

[dangersimpson2] 30/11/2016 16:54

That's a bit of a vague analysis without any figures or back up info.

I personally doubt that these factors will have much of an impact - certainly compared to the management actions of removing admin costs and freeing reg cap from the combined businesses. AXA & Abbey Life transactions alone should generate £0.8b by 2020 and £1.3 from 2021 onwards. I would imagine these figures would dwarf the factors you are concerned about.

[andrewbaker] 30/11/2016 16:14

I had this on my watch list, but am removing it now, because whilst it's possible to make more money by managing closed life and pension funds, because there are no new business costs, and administrative costs, both investment and management, will be less; there are other factors in play now that will affect the profits. Firstly, Phoenix took out a longevity swap in 2014 on its own company defined benefits pension scheme, which involves it in making annual payments to cover the longevity risk of its own pensioners, and these payments increase costs: and also, the government is passing legislation to prevent the large early surrender and transfer penalties on pensions, which penalties are particularly high on the old pension contracts that Phoenix are and will be managing. The loss of this not insignificant revenue - which is not spoken about or advertised for obvious reasons - will significantly affect the company's future profits.

In short, managing closed arrangements is cheaper, but the extra costs and lower profits of the above items will eat into these potentially higher returns. If you've got a profit from holding PHNX, I suggest you take it now before the share price falls back even further.

[rl34870] 27/11/2016 17:38

Edmundshaw - re the current price of 748p being equivalent to 888p old money. I held 2285 shares pre rights purchased at 875p costing £20k. I let my rights lapse and received a payment of £2538. Based on your figures I should be breaking even at around 735p but find at this price I am around £500 down. Is that correct?

[edmundshaw] 10/11/2016 11:55

Current price 748p equivalent to 888p old money. Very fortuitous if you are Chinese!

[rcturner2] 10/11/2016 09:35

I'm back in here now, happy days at this price.

[budsman] 10/11/2016 09:33

Selftrade did credit the new fully paid shares yesterday afternoon.

Glad to see a bit of a bounce this morning.

[thamestrader] 09/11/2016 16:03

yep, Halifax have caught up now

[budsman] 09/11/2016 15:43

Still waiting for Selftrade

[wllmherk] 09/11/2016 15:08

Got mine too, also, topped up this morning.


wllm

[skinny] 09/11/2016 14:40

And HL now.

[jimbox1] 09/11/2016 14:19

Mine now all combined in one holding at the Share Centre.

[garycook] 09/11/2016 11:31

Still have my Paid rights showing at a price of 717,with HL.

[thamestrader] 09/11/2016 11:09

Anyone had their new ordinary shares credited to their trading account yet?
(today is the day, isn't it?)

[orinocor] 04/11/2016 11:37

Thanks. I'm a very busy man and I appreciate your comment. I'm in now. Fingers crossed Trump loses but after Brexit nothing would be a surprise.

[rcturner2] 04/11/2016 11:28

er this has been discussed to death already on the thread

the general view seems to be that the post rights div will be lower, probably about 50p a share