Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 02/7/2019 22:18

Chart looks interesting. Complete inverted head and shoulders and consolidate?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[actybod] 02/7/2019 21:59

I'm sure he will be back in at 660. Maybe that's the point. Range bound so trade it.

[my retirement fund] 02/7/2019 18:07

Sold at 720 on the basis that its been lower hmmm. Think I'll stick around for 8 and over and keep collecting the staggeringly large and reliable dividend meantime.Of course if you can tell me where I may get a similar large and safe dividend meantime, I'm all ears.

[riverman77] 02/7/2019 15:40

Thanks Aleman. Phoenix appear then to hedge away their market exposure, which gives this a different risk profile from other insurers.

[rcturner2] 02/7/2019 13:49

I must admit I have sold up at 720p today. Had a fantastic run with these and managed to bag the steep drop at the start of the year. They tend to be very range bound and I can see them slipping back in due course.

[aleman] 02/7/2019 13:24

PHNX quote here that a fall of 0.8% in risk free interest rate makes virtually no difference to shareholders' capital or cash generation from 2018-22 and then compares a 1% fall to other insurers which also shows a negligible effect for PHNX while others take a hit. (See pages 48-50).




If PHNX is a steady flow of cash into the future that is little affected by normal market variations in asset values and interest rates, then you would expect that flow of cash to be valued like a bond.

[riverman77] 02/7/2019 12:48

Aleman - lower bond yields are usually bad for insurance companies as it increases the present value of their long term liabilities (lower discount rate).

[edmundshaw] 02/7/2019 12:34

It's been £8+ before, I see no reason to suppose we will not be back over £8 in the future...

[aleman] 02/7/2019 12:19

Last August the 10-year gilt yield was 1.7%. Now it's 0.8%. Where is the corresponding fall in PHNX's yield through a higher share price?

[bluemango] 02/7/2019 12:09

Nudging one year highs, strong resistance level. Clearing above 735p level would be very positive move.

[edmundshaw] 26/6/2019 09:20

Would seem a tasty morsel...

[stemis] 25/6/2019 13:20

hxxps://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/quilter-said-to-consider-sale-of-closed-book-uk-life-insurance-portfolio--6754576.html

Wealth manager Quilter is said to be considering a sale of its closed-book UK life insurance portfolio.

According to Bloomberg, Swiss Re's UK unit Reassure Group and Phoenix Group Holdings are among those considering bids. It was understood that the assets could fetch about $500m.

[aleman] 18/6/2019 13:24

That often happens. A big float leads to weakness in others in the same sector ahead of the float, as institutions put aside a bit of money that otherwise might have gone into the others, or even sell some to balance out weightings. It would not be unusual at all. PHNX should see some relative strength once it is out of the way, especially as longer bond yields keep falling.

Government bond yields are running scared of inaction from central banks to deteriorating economic indicators. Stockmarkets are getting the wrong message on rate cuts - too slow and too late. Stockmarkets should be falling unless rate cuts speed up. Deteriorating liquidity conditions are driving yields down, causing banks to withdraw excess reserves from the Fed. The entire US Treasury curve is now near enough flat, at +0.17%. UK 10-years yield only 0.79% currently - down 0.06% today and from 1.79% in early October. Stockmarkets and PHNX's yield are yet to adjust but they should do before long. At £10, they'll yield around 5% and that will still look favourable compared to Gilts yields which are getting ever closer to zero and will stay there a long time if central banks don't pull their fingers out.

[bothdavis] 18/6/2019 11:58

Are people selling out to buy Swiss Re?

Regarding recent weakness......

[jonwig] 14/6/2019 07:37

This is the IPO notice for the Swiss Re company ("ReAssure Group) next month:

[jonwig] 10/6/2019 06:29

Yes, it's their intention to lead the consolidation race, but the new superfunds will have the edge, I think, in terms of size.

[lauders] 10/6/2019 02:11

Thanks jonwig and Skinny. Still expect PHNX to make another M&A deal one of these days. Could be sooner rather than later but I have no idea so will just sit back and collect the dividends in the meantime.

[skinny] 09/6/2019 10:55

Lauders - here is .

[jonwig] 09/6/2019 06:45

Thanks Lauders. Another, clickable link:



£3.5bn MCap is short of our £5bn. PHNX held merger talks with this firm in 2013 but they were broken off.

[lauders] 09/6/2019 05:13

Some more activity in the sector looks imminent: hxxps://www.proactive....investors.co.uk/companies/news/221714/reassure-to-float-in-london-as-part-of-spin-out-from-parent-swiss-re-221714.html

Have to remove the periods between "proactive" and "investors" to make the link work.

ReAssure, which buys up and manages life insurance policies from other insurers, has 4.3mln policies and £68.7bn of assets under administration, making it the sixth largest life insurance group in the UK by total assets.

If it floats it will join fellow listed closed-book life insurance consolidators Phoenix Group Holdings (LON:PHNX), valued at around £5bn, and £0.5bn valued Chesnara PLC (LON:CSN).

In a statement on Friday, ReAssure said it was well positioned to benefit from “significant closed book market opportunities” and has a five-year target to generate a cumulative surplus of £2.1bn, and from 2024 onwards of £4.1bn.

[ianood] 06/6/2019 19:29

Also, the RR / L&G transaction adds a bit of interest to the sector

[aleman] 06/6/2019 11:40

Bit perkier. Finally strarting to respond to falling long bond yields and the prospect of a growing number of interest rate cuts to come? (2 to 4 in the US, depending who you want to listen to. I think it will end up more if they don't get a move on.)

[ianood] 27/5/2019 08:19

I believe it is an actuarial/dcf valuation driven by selected/negotiated assumptions on inflation and gilt yields. From my limited experience it is not a cheap solution for an underfunded scheme more a release of an administrative burden.

[jonwig] 27/5/2019 06:43

ian - thanks, so the same thing. What I've never seen is any figure for the actual sum.