Phoenix Copper Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 25/5/2024 17:24

From the FT..think this guy might be long the metal !!Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand expects the price of copper to almost quadruple to $40,000 a tonne in the next few years as soaring demand causes global stockpiles of the red metal to run low.Andurand's conviction on the copper market has helped his $1.3bn Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund rebound from a 55 per cent loss last year that came as his bullish oil wagers backfired badly. The fund is up 83 per cent this year, with the gains coming from a broad range of commodities, according to people familiar with the performance.Copper, a critical metal at the heart of the energy transition, has risen almost 20 per cent this year, touching a record $11,000 a tonne this week. But Andurand, one of the world's best-known commodity traders, thinks the rally has much farther to run, as supply struggles to keep up with demand."We are moving towards a doubling of demand growth for copper due to the electrification of the world, including electric vehicles, solar panels, wind farms, but also military usage and data centres," he told the Financial Times."I think we could end up to $40,000 per tonne over the next four years or so. I'm not saying it will stay there then; eventually we will get a supply response, but that supply response will take more than five years."Miner BHP's bid for rival Anglo American has also been seen as a sign that it is more difficult and expensive to build new supply than to buy a rival with copper mines.

[kooba] 24/5/2024 18:03

I hope you are right ..the order of the moves is somewhat unusual compared to traditional mine development it seems to me ..that doesn't mean it won't all end up flowing well to production , but it's looking odd at the moment ..re share price maybe I am not the only one yet to be convinced ..if the management can convince that all will be delivered with solid economics and the development completed on a relatively short timeframe ( before end 2026??) then I'm sure the price will better reflect the opportunity.

[retirementplan] 24/5/2024 15:52

Choreographed to perfection I think. We just can't see the whole picture. I have no doubt they have a very clear plan: this from yesterday's RNS is the most important bit short term:

"I would like to provide a brief update on the feasibility engineering for our Empire Open-Pit Mine. We recently reported that the Company's corporate copper bond issue has been fully subscribed for a principal value of US$80,000,000, which will be drawn down and used for the construction of the open pit mine and processing facility. While this funding will not have an impact on the mineral reserve estimate or the metallurgical and design engineering completed to date, it will provide the Company with the opportunity to outfit the open pit operation with lower-cost, pre-owned equipment. Much of this equipment has already been identified and is currently located within a 550-mile radius of the Empire Mine. The purchase of this equipment is expected to have a material impact on overall initial and sustaining capex, as well as on certain aspects of the process design detail, construction logistics, and the overall equipment procurement schedule. We have already procured pre-owned ball mills, assay laboratory equipment and disk filtration units, at an estimated capex reduction of US$8 million."

What I believe we will get out of the AGM is the resolution passed allowing shares headroom for financing to go ahead. Then drawdown (preferably with an announcement in the AGM result RNS). Then Ryan can go (carefully) shopping. I'm sure the $5m, $5m and then $20m drawdowns were carefully chosen so that money was available when required, saving some interest.

Anyway, I remain astonished at where the share price is atm, given what I feel is a significant de-risk. Prepared to sit tight as value will out. Views expressed here are my own - DYOR.

[kooba] 24/5/2024 15:24

Thanks..maybe they will rerun the presentation to shareholders who certainly will be interested. Hopefully the presentation deck will get up on the website too.Now they have the funds and are out buying equipment it would be helpful to have some timeline as to when real development starts (and likely finishes to give a producing mine) or whether there are permitting hurdles to jump first and how long that will take. It's either a jumble of finance , feasibilty and deliverability , project economics, permitting, plant acquisitions etc etc..or very carefully choreographed to perfection and will all pull together..hopefully they can explain better at the AGM !

[retirementplan] 24/5/2024 13:44

kooba: I don't know anyone who attended. Paul posted on Telegram that he felt his presentation went well. He mentioned that the audience were not typical of those that would buy pre/near production miners. So, that presentation won't be a game changer. IMO, the AGM & successive drawdowns (with the associated equipment buys, mine build, PFS and license application) will be. Plus, a bit (more - yawn) patience.

[bigboyblue] 24/5/2024 10:49

Not sure if this Allenby Capital research note has been posted here before: hxxps://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/05/20240524-Allenby-Capital-Commodity-viewpoint-May-2024.pdf?c4164=on
See page 12 for a section on PXC. Their summary:

'The Phoenix news flow has been positive of late on both the technical and financial fronts. In addition, the commodity market backdrop in terms of copper, gold and silver has been propitious for a company approaching mine development. The stock has reacted positively to the news flow. At the May 17 close of 20.0p/share Phoenix was trading 86% above the recent March low. From a longer-term perspective, however, the stock is still trading at a depressed level which is possibly a reflection of the long lead times and financing risks associated with mine development. As of mid-May 2024, Phoenix with a market capitalisation of US29.8m was trading at 20% discount to book value of US$37.2m. We regard this as decidedly undemanding given the advanced development status of the Empire mine. The copper equivalent valuation however is relatively high at US$560/tonne. Exploration upside particularly regarding the Empire sulphide ores could bring the valuation down significantly on this parameter.'

[kooba] 24/5/2024 10:15

Any feedback from anyone from the presentation last night? DP how did it go?

[london07] 23/5/2024 13:28

And a 500k buy just goes through!!

[zaphod99] 23/5/2024 12:10

Not if it turns out to be a Carlin type deposithTTps://www.mining.com/web/everything-you-need-to-know-on-carlin-type-gold-deposits/

[onedayrodders] 23/5/2024 12:06

I might be missing something but aren't those grades pathetic at best ?

[investorman33] 23/5/2024 11:41

Interesting update on Navarre Creek.

Its worth saying that many of the world's biggest gold mines are 'low grade, bulk tonnage' operations (of which the Carlin Trend gold mines in the next door state of Nevada are a prime example) - totally different from most people's perceptions of finding gold nuggets - so these sort of findings are absolutely consistent with what might be expected from early drilling into a 'low grade bulk tonnage' operation.

These are the first drill holes into Navarre Creek (which is a huge area at 4,000 acres) so finding gold in many of the drill holes is very encouraging - it'll give Ryan and co a lot of information to understand the geology so as to plan future drilling, and its the information that will be of value atm, rather than precise grades.

This first drilling campaign confirming the airborne geomagnetic survey now turns it from a piece of scrubland into a very interesting potential gold project that a lot of investors/other mining companies would like to have - so it starts to have a real value which can only increase with further successful drilling.

[sportbilly1976] 23/5/2024 08:24

Also in the rns:

""In addition to reporting the Navarre Creek drilling results, I would like to provide a brief update on the feasibility engineering for our Empire Open-Pit Mine. We recently reported that the Company's corporate copper bond issue has been fully subscribed for a principal value of US$80,000,000, which will be drawn down and used for the construction of the open pit mine and processing facility.

While this funding will not have an impact on the mineral reserve estimate or the metallurgical and design engineering completed to date, it will provide the Company with the opportunity to outfit the open pit operation with lower-cost, pre-owned equipment. Much of this equipment has already been identified and is currently located within a 550-mile radius of the Empire Mine. The purchase of this equipment is expected to have a material impact on overall initial and sustaining capex, as well as on certain aspects of the process design detail, construction logistics, and the overall equipment procurement schedule.

We have already procured pre-owned ball mills, assay laboratory equipment and disk filtration units, at an estimated capex reduction of US$8 million. These items all form an important part of the feasibility work, which is now being updated accordingly." "

[donald pond] 23/5/2024 08:05

The presentation itself won't be recorded but I will speak to the board about how to share the message

[kooba] 23/5/2024 07:56

Can shareholders remotely access your presentation this evening after the event? It's good that the presentation shared with the investor event will be available to share holders in due course i guess.

[donald pond] 23/5/2024 07:50

I'm presenting today at Mello. There won't be any new information but the updates presentation will be on the website in due course

[kooba] 23/5/2024 07:44

Thanks DP one for the bottom draw then i guess for now. I note the company are presenting today at some investor shindig..slightly surprised at the timing so close to the opportunity to present to their shareholders directly at an AGM but I'm sure they thought that through.Is there likely to be any new information on the economics of the development and timetable before the AGM as you indicated everything would be open and be explained to shareholders then ..and there still appears little to go on the cost and delivery side even with the uncertainty around funding apparently now resolved favourably?

[soulsauce] 23/5/2024 07:34

Spot on DP.

[soulsauce] 23/5/2024 07:33

I think you seem to forget that is what these carlin type deposits are, high tonnage low grade.
Lots of companies making big money mining this stuff near by.

[donald pond] 23/5/2024 07:31

Navarre Creek is a huge site and is full of surface anomalies. Whenever you drill 28 holes in a 4,000 acre site that has never been drilled before the results will only give the barest hint of what lies beneath. This is the first step in a long process of understanding what is the source of the extensive surface alterations you can see all over the area, and does it present in the form of a resource that has commercial potential. It is one for the future though, the priority now is Empire

[bumpa33] 23/5/2024 07:29

One word. Pathetic.

[kooba] 23/5/2024 07:16

"..worthy of further follow-up."Not sure on the commercial nature of those grades happy for those with a better mining knowledge base to explain the significance.

[investorman33] 22/5/2024 17:43

Sportsbilly

The other way to look at it is (and its very crude) the average ebitda is about equal to our current market cap (or might be circa 125% of market cap assuming 100% conversion of all outstanding warrants etc).

But either way, any investment where annual earnings is anywhere close to market cap means market cap needs to go u by a decent multiple, whether that's 4x, 6x or 10x !

Might take a little time to get there but that's fine by me.

[sportbilly1976] 22/5/2024 16:16

So $250mln over 8 years...very crudely $31mln per year.

average EBITDA multiple of 6-9x would put the valuation around the $180-270mln (£144-£216m) range...Which is a £1.20-£2 equivalent share price currently

[kaos3] 22/5/2024 15:51

nothing to be afraid of. there is enough value for all

go go go