Pets At Home Share Discussion Threads

[zoolook] 24/5/2018 09:38

Ok so I take it that it is heavily shorted.

I assume the other main concerns are the Vets strategy/investment, potential Amazon competition and eroding margins.

An share price drop is generally attractive. Just trying to weigh this one up as I’ve quickly dipped in and out here twice

[yump] 24/5/2018 08:59

You could have asked the same question about loads of shares in the last 6 months or so.

Any of the larger shares which has any worries at all, even if results are OK, has been hammered down.

BAB, TATE, INCH, RMG, SAGA... there's a long list.

MTC was struggling already.
CLLN was full of crooks and only running 2% margin.
CNA has a long running regulatory issue.

So if you take away the ones where the whole thing looked like it was actually running into permanent trouble, you're left with shares that have recovered from a 'suspicious' drop.

SAGA hasn't recovered properly yet, but that had a big hit all in one go.

Whether its really iffy or not depends on the business itself.

[zoolook] 24/5/2018 08:16

Something doesn’t smell right here. Is this being heavily shorted?

[yump] 23/5/2018 23:35

My previous business loans weren't taken off my profits, the interest was and the total loan was only used to value the business overall ie. net assets.

I suppose we could have taken the entire loan value off the profits, which would have led to a kitchen sink job with amazing bottom line growth the year after, when we sold the business. But I think very awkward questions would have been asked.

[cantrememberthis2] 23/5/2018 21:43

Well I'm adding another £5k tomorrow
Intrinsic value 213p FRS
hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/retail/lse-pets/at-home-group-shares?unique_symbol=LSE:PETS&l=1&amp;t=znetvaf&s=2&id=320732&utm_source=post&utm_medium=finance_user<=CTA_ticker&amp;utm_campaign=CTA_ticker

[cantrememberthis2] 23/5/2018 20:41

Well all bad news out of the way now let's move on. Priced in with all the doom and gloom

[henchard] 23/5/2018 20:28

Extract from ftalphaville markets live yesterday:

Pets at Home Group PLC (PETS:LSE): Last: 145.58, down 12.42 (-7.86%), High: 165.80, Low: 144.30, Volume: 3.52m
BE
The big news here is that they've broken out the vets JV stuff for the first time.
BE
You'll remember the concerns around the vets JVs, which seem to consume a massive amount of cash and quite often fail.
BE
Pets has to write loans to practices just to keep them going.
BE
So ...... today we get Pets breaking out £29m of profit for the division in YE 2018.
BE
Except it doesn't, because against that there's £15m of operating loans
BE
And guidance for a further £20m working capital outflow this year
BE
Plus a £5m bad debt provision for YE2019 against these operating loans
...
PM
Why is the vets side so problematic? ...
...
BE
... read this summary of a very good note from Geoff Rudell at MOST:

[cantrememberthis2] 23/5/2018 20:19

Says the TCM dude...move on dude

[bones30] 23/5/2018 20:15

Pays to subscribe to the FT :)

[cantrememberthis2] 23/5/2018 20:10

Feels a no brainer... Shorts increased marginally tody but I suspect they didn't want to see the Director RNS landing... Could be a strong 5% rise tomorrow.

[linton5] 23/5/2018 20:05

I’m in tmmw aswell will also buy some for my 4 Pooches 🐶

[cantrememberthis2] 23/5/2018 19:42

Short sellers will have to pay out the 5p upcoming dividend in a matter of weeks
Director buys £100k on the open market... Trade no. 208 140.1p this morning.
Schroeder's reducing caused BOTS to go overdrive knocking 4% in minutes. However a Director has called time and effectively puts his mark.
Debt is little unlike AA etc and this is making profit
PE ratio low
Oversold and hitting historical lows due to fear and sentiment
Pets and animals are recession proof..you don't stop caring for loved ones...just not cricket
Think we may have had a lot of fear but in takeover target.
KKR bought Pets near to £1bn
Market cap below revenues value.
Enterprise value 164p
I'm being greedy
Buying more and for div tomorrow
GLA DYOr

[cantrememberthis2] 23/5/2018 18:18

I'd suspect this could be hitting takeover territory... Ffs it's profit making and I find it's future strategy compelling. Little debt too. Divi looks great regardless... 150p return or 130p I'll buy more

[spotdog40] 23/5/2018 17:39

Home retail group was almost 10% short prior to takeover. Not sure that was "arranged", probably just another struggling retailer.
Sainsburys was 12% short prior to ASDA announcement. Nice to see fingers get burnt there!

[cantrememberthis2] 23/5/2018 17:23

Oversold.. Going for more tomorrow am

[john09] 23/5/2018 14:46

New CEO has just bought shares

[yump] 23/5/2018 13:21

Sometimes the conspiratorial side of me wonders if the shorting is 'arranged' to drop prices for a takeover, but so far its never happened with any share I've watched.

I guess the shorters have only to get the scent of anything average or slightly below average to result in an exaggerated share price movement downwards. The same violent movements seem to happen upwards as well and can only conclude its a lot of programmatic buying or selling, with no strict rationale.

I mean Royal Mail cannot be worth almost twice its lowest valuation within a few months, just because there wasn't a strike.

[spotdog40] 23/5/2018 12:44

Interesting that PETS have decided to separate out retail and veterinary for 2019.Makes it easier to see the value in the veterinary business.

CVS revenue £271m, for profit before tax of £14.5m, EPS 18.5p, share price 1000p
Pets VET REVENUE £94m, EBIT £29m, contributing 33% of the basic EPS 13.5p, share price 140p.
In terms of EPS (4.5/18.5 x 1000p)a standalone PETS veterinary business on a CVS valuation would be worth £2.43 per share.

PETS veterinary business should attract a higher valuation though, as the businesses are immature, and we can expect double digit growth for the next few years.
CVS have been collecting mature businesses which are unlikely to grow at the same rate.

15% shorting of this stock has made it vulnerable to a takeover or buyout. The price has been mostly under £2 since early 2017. Anyone want to rescue a pet shop chain- free to good home?

[hatfullofsky] 22/5/2018 23:24

Very flexible NT bid supporter of PETS then big shorter, agree with him that this is a trading stock and wouldn't be surprised if he reccomends it in his next update, he closed his short some time ago.

[hatfullofsky] 22/5/2018 23:22

What are you talking about? Jack of all trades = one stop shop. One trip for all your pet needs. Pets are big business and will continue to be. They are moving to higher margin services. Do some more research then review the financials and then comment.

[insideryou] 22/5/2018 22:48

robbie burns called this well again, as he usually does...

[fabius1] 22/5/2018 22:22

Not convinced about the veterinary route at all. I would want my local vet of choice to look after my animals on a personal level. My feeling from the word go was that this was a window dressed debt for equity swap warehouse business with limited growth potential. Been in the stores and I find them depressing and a jack of all trade pet store. As with most retailers in the pet business, their most profitable items are dry stock items like food, health treatments, collars, cages etc that do not have a habit of dying. Fine, but the trouble with that is that the internet does the same thing for less.