Petrotal Share Discussion Threads

[jbravo2] 05/2/2021 09:22

Yeah and this is really tight now...

[mount teide] 04/2/2021 22:42

Brent hits $59/bbl ....... Petropal's 1.8m bbls due for sale by Petroperu in Q2/3 is shaping up nicely to generate huge net proceeds for the company.

[jailbird] 04/2/2021 16:24

Appreciate your diligence here Thommie

[thommie] 04/2/2021 16:20

sleeven, who knows. maybe I am wrong as well.. Lets see if ptal answers my email :)

[sleveen] 04/2/2021 15:27

Thommie

OK. Clearly I am mistaken , but I do recall discussion previously relating to variations in numbers on Peruvian petroleum websites.

[mount teide] 04/2/2021 08:42

L2: closed last night at 3 v 3 / 14p v 15p

Opened: 1 v 2 / 14.25p v 15.0p (then 1 x 15.25p, 3 x 15.5p, rest 15.75p and above)

Actual current spread is 14.4p v 14.8p - 130k was just unloaded at 14.4p without the MM on the bid with 25k blinking.

[thommie] 04/2/2021 08:26

sleeven, no it is not. every barrel that is produced will be reported on the perupetro (official peru state institution) production website. it has to because its purposes is to apply royalties on the production. so exports via other ways than onp or iquitos refinery have also to be reported here. everything else would be non legal as it would mean peru as a state losing taxes/royalties. also be aware of the difference between the official perupetro that applies royalties and petroperu that owns the onp and runs the iquitos and talara refinery. they look like the same because of similar namens but are completely different ones.

[sleveen] 04/2/2021 08:16

Isn't the difference due to production v delivered?

Also don't forget the 200k tanker that's being filled in Feb that will reduce the delivered numbers.

[thommie] 04/2/2021 07:43

I just emailed petrotal about the discrepancy in production figures between the perupetro site and their own announced daily production figures of 9500-10025 bopd in the 7. and 12.1. rnss. they seem to be spot on in the first january half with 140 000 bbls produced in 15 days. but after that it falls of to 6500 bopd in the 2nd half. I asked for clarification on the process from production on the field to being reported on the perupetro site. the only guess I have is (as production decline to 6500 bopd is unlikely) they had to shut in some wells because of cpf commisioning or that the oil gets reported to perupetro not after being produced but after being loaded or unloaded on barges. so it could be also possible that they stored the missing 40 000 bbls into storage tanks on site on top of the 29 700 bbls they had in store like the rns at 12.1. said before loading it on barges for the 220 000 bbls manaus export in february. on the other hand the whole known storage capacity on site was only around 50 000 bbls...

I'll let you know if I get an answer.

[croasdalelfc] 03/2/2021 22:01

Canada finished at 16p equivalent . Should be up tomorrow

[johnhemming] 03/2/2021 19:21

I asked them whether the bonds would be traded and they said they may be listed in 6 months. I have suggested they keep the minimum size low as to not prevent smaller investors having an interest. I have no response to this as yet. (not that necessarily there would be).

[fictitious1] 03/2/2021 14:41

understate, overdeliver - way to go!

[thommie] 03/2/2021 06:40

this figures are assuming a very bad recovery factor of 13,6% 2P and 14,9% 3P. all other fields with similar api grades are far exceeding these and are still producing. the nearby yanayacu field has a recovery factor of 37% to date. so expect to add this on top of the figures...

[mcfly79] 02/2/2021 21:44

The August 2020 presentation shows the potential 2P and 3P production profiles on page 10:

[mcfly79] 02/2/2021 21:30

The note doesn’t include the workings of a DCF but does include a post tax NAV of 52p (risked) and £1.50 (unrisked).



The largest part of the unrisked NAV is $503m (42p) for the Bretana 2P reserves. I assume this was based on a DCF (as is usual for oil reserves).



By comparison, the company's 2019 Annual Information Form that was released in June 2020 shows a post tax DCF value of $746m for the 2P reserves, using a 10% discount rate (and assuming $163m capex). This was based on higher oil prices though (e.g. $67 for 2021), explaining the increase from the $503m calculated by Auctus.


What's really interesting is the DCF for the 3P reserves is $1,275m. A huge amount of additional value.


I'm hoping the recovery factor proves to be in keeping with analogous fields and the company can move towards the 3P production profile.


Only an additional $100m of capex (including 5 wells) is forecast for the 3P production profile and additional wells would start paying for themselves very quickly as they are brought online (so peak additional cash outflow is less than $100m).


I don't think funding the extra capex would be a problem at current oil prices. The presentation shows $156m of cash in three years time (after repaying the bond) at $55 Brent.

[thommie] 02/2/2021 20:39

if brent really avgs 65$ in q2 like some analysts predict ptal will get net proceeds of around 35mio $ from petroperu when the 1,8mio barrels are sold as planned in q2/3. this would mean that the interest rates for 3 years from the 100mio bond would effectively be paid already :) if demand picks up in summer because of accelerating vaccinations we will maybe even see a greater oil price rise. Lets hope the vaccine will work on all actual and future mutations... :) good to see moderna and especially biontech ramping up production hard in the next months as these mrna vaccines are close to 99% working at all ages compared to vector vaccines like astra zenecas that is only working on 50-60% of people and it sadly looks like mutations might not even be included... at least biontech recently tested the uk mutation as working plus the south african as well. but who knows... but even if it doesnt work anymore they can change the vaccine within 4weeks, so if they build enough production facilities they could be able to produce very fast and high volumes of vaccines if needed. (only biontech confirmed today to be able to produce 2 billion doses in 2021, further expansions planned on top of that) we can not live forever with lockdowns...

[chrysalis99] 02/2/2021 20:16

The cashflows are quite complex with depletions, $145m capex and repayment of the $100m bond so a DCF calculation would be a better than a snapshot EV/Cashflow multiple. Do the brokers include a NPV in their note?

[fictitious1] 02/2/2021 15:32

Super news. On the face of it, some will baulk at the % rate but try borrowing that amount of money from banks or raise through shareholders with the uncertainties that the world continues to face. Moreover, the use of the funds just opens up new horizons and a solid financial base to support the growth. The share price will only go one way imo and all the remaining warrants will get exercise, thus more money in our coffers.

If the strategy of acquisitions and new drills pays off- track record says YES! - , there'll be money coming out of the company's ears and it wouldn't surprise me if the bonds are redeemed earlier, or even consider shares buy back.

IMO. GL.

[mount teide] 02/2/2021 11:35

Great news ...... the coupon will likely prove to be loose change compared to the huge cash flows that investment of the bond's cash can generate over the next 2-3 years - and that's at very conservative production forecasts and $57 Brent.

Today's announcement has considerably strengthened the investment case imo - demonstrating that even in a low oil price world, there is still plenty of investment industry cash and support for the operators of high quality, high growth, very strong cash flow generating O&G industry assets.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mcfly79] 02/2/2021 09:52

The forecast 2022 operating cash flow of $170m from Auctus is based on 14,748 bopd and $57 Brent.


The 14,748 bopd is very conservative imo.


Petrotal themselves are show c.16.8k bopd for 2022 in the latest presentation.

[sleveen] 02/2/2021 09:36

Take a look at the latest presentation in particular the cash flow at various production levels v POO.

Fantastic!


12%, I fart in your general direction.

[mcfly79] 02/2/2021 09:22

I’ve added this morning. The bond issue is overwhelmingly positive news imo. The cash from the bond issue will unlock huge additional cashflow from drilling, dwarfing the $12m annual interest.


There is a new Auctus note out this morning with a 50p price target.


They are forecasting operating cash flows of $90m and $170m in 2021 and 2022 and a EV/Cash-flow multiple of just 0.6 for 2022!

[croasdalelfc] 02/2/2021 09:19

I wouldn't be surprised if they diversify to another country - the only reason to take blocks like 192 or 8 is if they think they can keep the local population happy - improved relations because PTAL is a Peruvian company at heart.

[spooky] 02/2/2021 09:15

Makes no sense to me either and 12% is a red flag for me.

[thommie] 02/2/2021 09:13

mhh, Im no expert, but you are right, 12% is a really high interest rate to pay... the bond holders max have wanted sth on top as the risk of social interuptions was big in the past... I also dont get why ptal wants to pay back the liability to petroperu, as they only have to pay 6,x% interest rate on it. so why change 6% against 12%? doesnt matter for me if they dont free up bretana cpf as security...on the other side we can go on drilling, end the cpf constructions and we dont get more dilution... anyone wanna guess which of the leases they will buy? Lot 192 (8-9000 bopd) , 8 (5-6000 bopd) and 67 (2500bopd) are on the cards if I remember right....