Petrotal Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 02/2/2021 08:49

Nice moves finally

big old coupon ffs on that bond

[sleveen] 02/2/2021 07:50

New drilling to commence within 8 weeks.

[mount teide] 01/2/2021 16:08

L2: 2 v 7 / 13p v 14p (then 1 x 15p)

[qs99] 01/2/2021 16:03

Looks like bottom was hit

DYOR

[thommie] 01/2/2021 11:12

just a thought on production figures... maybe they had to shut in some wells because of commissioning of the new cpf 2 parts. they should be on site now after delivery started in early january from ecuador. I remember production last year 19/20 were lowered as well for nearly 1 month as cpf commisioning Was ongoing

[thommie] 01/2/2021 09:54

new production numbers btw online. last days werent really big, but lets see, sometimes it gets reported later on top.

[pro_s2009] 31/1/2021 14:47

PTAL in there.


Malcys 2021 bucket list.





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[jailbird] 29/1/2021 15:47

I agree MT I noticed more on the bid was a positive sign when turning . Nowadays just one MM can sit on the bid but actually it does not signify it will drop further . A bit of a false market nowadays with regards to true quotes .. market knows many using L2

[mount teide] 29/1/2021 15:28

jb - that comment was purely an observation as to what was happening at that point in time.... L2 rarely provides a signal to more general market moves, like the recent sell-off across the O&G and mining sectors. These tend to be rapid, sharp and of short duration.

I use L2 mostly to guide me when I'm averaging up on pullbacks as the investment case strengthens.

For that it's been invaluable over the years ...... paid for itself many, many times over.

[jailbird] 29/1/2021 15:09

MTLook below what you said the other day and look what happened after that . I find L2 nowadays does not tell the direction even in the short term nowadays , i find it can end up going either way Long term this is going only up L2: 3 v 1 - 16.0p v 16.5p / (then 2 x 17p, 3 x 17.5p, 1x 17.75p and 1 x 18p)A buyer is absorbing any selling including 6figure size transactions at circa 16.15p

[fozzie] 29/1/2021 15:08

Thanks for the G&R piece MT. All my oilers have sold off over the last month which is surprising given the strength of the rising oil price.

[mount teide] 29/1/2021 15:00

L2: 4 v 1 / 12.5p v 13.2p (1 x 13.5p, 5 x 14p, 1 x 15p)

[jailbird] 29/1/2021 14:47

I disagree , I expected 12p to be the low according to support technicals but I am not sure now , we may just have seen it today

[78steve] 29/1/2021 14:35

People probably waiting for 10p or thereabouts for top up. This has become a traders share these days.

[mount teide] 29/1/2021 14:28

Gold - Oil Ratio hits 160 year high



'Between 1900 and today, one ounce of gold has purchased 20 barrels of crude oil on average, with a standard deviation of 8 (using monthly data). Eighty percent of all observations are between 10:1 (gold is cheap relative to oil) and 30:1 (oil is cheap relative to gold).

The gold-oil ratio has been a reliable indicator of when to invest in oil and when to invest in gold over the past 120 years. Since 1900, crude has averaged a 12-month gross return of 7% while gold has averaged a 12-month gross return of 5%. Oil has generated a negative 12-month return 39% of the time while gold has generated a negative return 32% of time.

However, looking only when the gold-oil ratio has exceeded 30:1 (i.e., oil is cheap relative to gold), crude has returned 32% on average over the next twelve months (over four times its long-term average), while gold has returned 4% on average. Oil was lower only 13% of the time (70% less often). On average, oil outperformed gold by 28% during these periods compared with 2% normally.

We last used this analysis in early 2016 to justify our investments in oil-related securities. At that point, the gold-oil ratio hit a then-record 47:1. We argued that oil prices were set to surge and invested in oil-weighted E&P securities as a result. Over the next 30-months, oil rallied by 191% from $26 per barrel to $76 per barrel by October 2018. Oil stocks (as measured by the XLE ETF) advanced by 56%.

Given today’s ratio, we believe an extremely strong buying opportunity is presenting itself in oil and oil-related stocks. Nearly every example of an extreme high reading in the gold-oil ratio is followed by a full reversal to an extreme low reading of 10:1. If that is correct, then oil prices are set to increase dramatically.'

Source: Goehring & Rozencwajg - Nat Resource ~Investors

[sleveen] 29/1/2021 09:32

Great podcast from Art Berman

[pec2004] 28/1/2021 12:06

I am going to start adding here if we get anywhere near 10p, obviously should have sold out as soon as that last RNS hit but that doesnt change PTAL's prospects.

[sphere25] 28/1/2021 10:59

Shorted these on those big sells reported at 10p by Gran Terra. Don't highlight shorts because it makes you look bad and part of some evil shorting group, but a short term trade is a short term trade, so might highlight a few more going forward if it doesn't wind folk up. My small trades aren't going to shift the dial.

Important to note that noone here can influence the price of a share, the market does what it wants, so don't get wound up. This one was just a play on the discount that the sell had been booked at relative to the market price. It was strikingly large, you don't often see that much of a discount.

Ultimately, the rationale comprised a large sell showing a price of 10p to reflect the true near term value here, a continued overhang of shares held by Gran Terra to the tune of 16.8% of the shares in issue, possible hedging or selling by the buyers of the placed shares to take the price back down toward 10p and a chart that was rolling over.

This has also been reflected in there being no bid in the market. There are two market makers on the bid here at 13p currently but they're not offering a price at that level. There is an offer for 50k at 12p at the moment so well below the bid.

I suspect this could trend down toward that 10p level. As per long trades, selling into spikes, cover into plunges here.

If it turned, cover on a break of 14p and move on - simple. Going forward, I'd be watching this one for the placement of the remaining 16.8% as highly speculative long play because that is clearly holding the price back in a material way here so a possible rally contender then.

Shorting is alot harder, far more perilous than trading long imo. Markets go up most of the time, and with unlimited losses, always exit quick if things change!

All imo
DYOR

[sturm2] 27/1/2021 14:17

Fiscalized = means it's up for taxation - in this case it's measured for royalty purpose (or just measured "officially" for sale)

Petrotals production is published @ Petruperus website - I wrote a longer post yesterday not realizing it was eaten by the bit- & link police since it contained said link.

Crude oil is blended with ~3.5% natural gasoline, sales are therefore ~3.5% higher.

Perupetro fiscalizes at Bretaña to calculate royalties, Petroperu fiscalizes at Saramuro (AKA pump station 1) for invoicing.

[sleveen] 27/1/2021 08:02

Thanks Sturm2

[fardels bear] 26/1/2021 17:21

Wtf does fiscalized mean? Monetise was bad enough..

[sturm2] 26/1/2021 16:32

Great day to add some more. In the latest company presentation (p13) they're calculating with 8K BOPD in Q1, but according to the latest RNS / production update, they're already above 10K So there's probably a nice stock piling up in their own storage :)
It's just not fiscalized yet.