Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 24/1/2019 11:58

My understanding is first, they have already been stockpiling material ready for treatment - hence a large part of any wc related cash hit will already have been taken. second, capex more than halves to sub $50m inti 2019... both of those have a significantly positive effect on sequential free cash flow into 2019.

[jp2011] 24/1/2019 10:10

In simple terms, until they get high utilisation of the POX plant then C1 costs will be high.Secondly, any new operation requires a cash operating cycle and POG have said absolutely nothing about this. Part of that cycle started in 2018 when they started producing and stockpiling concentrate. All I'm saying is POX is going to suck in $30-50m of cash over the next 12-18 months so I think Au oz will look good but net cash generated less good.

[route1] 24/1/2019 09:43

I'm sure they have had enough time during and before construction started to crunch the numbers for this project,and I'm sure they had a prior ROI projection for this massive investment.I also hope that they had the good sense to Insure the whole Installation on an "All risk basis" to include Business Interruption, for Any reason.As previous posters have said this isa very expensive piece of Kit, that must be protected in every way.

[greenelf] 24/1/2019 09:01

I am holding, hopefully this should run to next resistance around 8.5p. Just need last of 'sell on news' brigade to depart.

[gersemi] 24/1/2019 08:54

Excuse my naive analysis of L2. I only subscribed for it last week

5 v 1 here with 259k bid v 5k so the book is bid (buy) strong

[jp2011] 24/1/2019 08:17

Ignore the capitalisation & depreciation of the assets.More important:1) Working capital required for POX2) production costs when under utilised3) C1 fully utilised4) Cash flow

[route1] 24/1/2019 03:14

The asset value of the now completedPOX Hub must surely have been,or will be added to the Balance sheet,one way or another.I am not an Accountant so don't know how this massive piece of "Fixed Plant" is added "accounting wise ",but of course it can only be beneficial.If anyone has any experience in this field,perhaps you could explain?Thanks.Of course my remarks above exclude the future potential of processing Refactor y ores for 3rd parties.

[greenelf] 23/1/2019 16:37

Blue and above 7.1p...result.

[juju44] 23/1/2019 15:01

Will it end red?

[galeforce1] 23/1/2019 11:54

Undervalued - seems to me that investors definitely knew there was a trading statement coming because it was announced, and they just took a punt by loading up before the day.

Like you I'm in here for the long term. Seems to me that POG could make £100m in 2019 (if the gold price holds, which is a big 'if') and that the share price could go quite a lot higher.

The current board seems very strong and Pavel Maslovsky seems to have done a great job in getting the POX hub launched. It's a complicated bit of kit.

[undervaluedassets] 23/1/2019 11:22

Galeforce I am not arguing that the news is not good .. it is hugely

I am just making the supposition that perhaps some people knew something of today's news yesterday... I dunno good luck to em.

I am here for the long term

[gersemi] 23/1/2019 11:08

1 v 1 - 50k either side...back to normal balance

offer depth > bid depth but not by much....

excitement over

[galeforce1] 23/1/2019 10:52

undervalued - if you look at the news announcements through the autumn there were plenty of hints that things were turning around here. In particular, successful trial of POX hub, and de-risking ofIRC loan by re-arranging at Gazprombank (which POG has close relationship with).

[gersemi] 23/1/2019 10:45

the biggest sell order on the book is now 483k at just over 10p..the decks have been cleared

[davidlloyd] 23/1/2019 10:42

Unusual Volume can be a good indicator, if able to keep your finger on the pulse. I often use this as a 'top up' pointer on shares that I am interested in/follow.....worked this time but not always of course! :-)

DL

[undervaluedassets] 23/1/2019 10:40

It is interesting ... someone clearly knew that some good news was going to be announced today.

yesterdays volume was 39 million shares - 12 X the daily average for the last year.

over the last year the daily average has been just over 3 million shares traded.

someone tipped someone the wink ... or is it just a coincidence. hmmm.

I dunno good luck to em.. the takeaway is that this company is doing better and the outlook is better too.

[book5] 23/1/2019 10:28

Good news and congrats
Irc going down during last few days
GLA

[jswjsw] 23/1/2019 10:14

POG realising its potential now a reality. Which means any kind of discount to NAV ought to be much less significant. Even 15% would give 11.1p
j

[gersemi] 23/1/2019 10:07

300k buy order just below touch at 7.75p...there's now no real order book resistance up to 10p except the usual bits and bobs

[gersemi] 23/1/2019 09:59

There's now no size available on the offer so any proper demand for stock and this will pop

[juju44] 23/1/2019 09:56

Wow , I am in profit after 4 years

[gersemi] 23/1/2019 09:53

All large sell orders matched off! Full steam ahead with the obvious proviso

[jswjsw] 23/1/2019 09:48

Yes, galeforce, and any third party contracts will add value above the previously stated 13p NAV.
j

[galeforce1] 23/1/2019 09:09

Q4 production of 118.8 k ounces is quite a bit better than I was expecting.

The forecast production for 2019 has been revised upwards but is probably quite conservative and should be achieved at the top end which is 500k ounces.

All looking good. Sentiment towards POG is still so negative that if it turns more positive we would see the share price triple.

First target is 15p, which would be £500m mcap, circa £1bn enterprise value.