Petards Share Discussion Threads

[pldazzle] 21/2/2024 16:19

One worthwhile fact has been overlooked, I think, both by Hybridan and in this interesting discussion.

Petards has three active subsidiaries: QRO (ANPR), RTS (rail software) and Petards Joyce Loebl (rail systems and defence).

Per Companies House, in 2023 the results were (turnover/pretax/post-tax):
QRO - £4.422m, £588k, £535k
RTS - £611k, £2k, £22k (so it's relatively minor)
PJL - £6.09m, loss (£725k), loss (£329k)
Group, no doubt reflecting intra-group turnover, head office charges and other adjustments - £10.872m, £178k, £524k.

Thus the entirety of trading losses is down to PJL, which in turn must be mainly down to the absence of major rail contracts following reorganisation of the industry. In the past these have been chunky, often several £m at a time. I hadn't realised before to what extent QRO was now carrying the rest of the group.

It seems clear that, once rail orders return, there will be a rapid and potentially dramatic turnround. Naturally there is no guarantee when this will happen - if at all! - but it 'smells' encouraging and I, for my part, have added to my holding.

[rivaldo] 20/2/2024 12:22

Hybridan have a new note out today.

They forecast a £0.3m operating profit this year, or 0.9p EPS, with a £2m cash pile against the current £4.4m m/cap.

They have an interesting paragraph in particular re QRO:

"We believe that QRO Solutions will pursue growth opportunities in ULEZ (ultra low emission zone) charges and car parks in the UK and perhaps expand its footprint to overseas markets."

[smithie6] 19/2/2024 12:34

Here is a copy & paste from the interim results

Which is very positive imo, including the part about "launch of exciting new products...many of which incorporate artificial intelligence.....increased functionality"

"The Group's businesses have good management teams with strategic plans in place, to achieve growth in 2024 and 2025 with an ungeared balance sheet and the financial resources to support. These include plans for the launch of exciting new products over the coming months, many of which incorporate artificial intelligence and data solutions with increased functionality. The successful deployment of these new products and the improved prospects for acquisitions mean the board remains confident for the future."
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Cap. value is now up to ~£4m but it is around half of turnover so not expensive.

[smithie6] 19/2/2024 12:15

...I agree ..

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Interesting that a number of buy trades have gone through "after" rising ~20% (3 buys of 20k shares each time) ,
so despite the big % rise someone has kept hitting the buy button.
Interesting.

[rivaldo] 19/2/2024 11:33

The rise is more a reaction to the current stream of contract wins/extensions - three in three weeks - and the crazy undervaluation relative to the cash pile and prospects, likely caused by forced institutional selling, with the share overhang having been cleared by the two Jons etc.

[glavey] 19/2/2024 10:13

And a just few percent of annual t/o, so a bit of an over reaction perhaps.

[smithie6] 19/2/2024 09:20

.."silly cheap"

I agree.

[the oak tree] 19/2/2024 09:06

350k contract doesnt sound much but it is 10% of the market cap. The stats from this company are silly cheap. Its always about being patient with these companies.

[the oak tree] 19/2/2024 09:02

The part that stands out for me is, this could be sold to many other police forces.

The hard part is getting through the door with org like the police or any other tax payer funded org. So could be quite some roll out.

Not a bad start with 20% up so far.

[rivaldo] 19/2/2024 09:02

WH Ireland's update note this morning talks about the positive start to this year, and rehashes today's contract win news, until this decent summary in the last paragraph given the mere £3.4m m/cap:

"With a range of fundamentally competitive products in their respective markets, we see real potential for improvement as the rail market recovers and highlight the group’s robust net cash position (FY2024E WHI est: £2.7m). Trading on low single digit P/Es for FY2024E and with net cash making up over 50% of the market cap at the year ended FY2023E, we view the shares as undervalued at current levels"

[smithie6] 19/2/2024 08:06

The RNS includes this text
"... for two lanes of ANPR and manages wireless/4G/5G communications for onward transmission of data to the police force back office systems. The DVR option"

Can someone post what ANPR & DVR are ?!

(Sounds like clever stuff....& needed by the police to bring their technology more up to date; surely a lot more potential police orders out there, must be a lot of police traffic vehicles out there)

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Update
ANPR- automatic number plate recognition

DVR - digital video recording

[smithie6] 19/2/2024 07:59

...nice contract win.
Share price doing well recently, well it was/is crazy cheap.

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(Doug74
....agreed that it's great for the UK to have foreign owned car companies doing car production in the UK, but ! generally there is a trend of moving some car factories from Western Europe to eastern Europe where wages are much lower. Some historic British car brands are owned abroad, Jaguar, Range Rover, Mini. If any parts of production are ever moved abroad then it is unlikely they would ever come back !
(Rolls Rolls bodies/chassis are now built abroad, & uses BMW engines I think.
Royal Enfield motorbikes are now I think only made in India.

Strange that most formula 1 car companies are based in the UK I think, except Ferrari, so for racing cars the UK workers/skills are highly regarded)

[rivaldo] 19/2/2024 07:23

Another contract win announced for QRO, this time for in-vehicle ANPR as opposed to the prior contract win for AI cameras.

And it's for a new police force customer too:

[smithie6] 14/2/2024 18:02

...I think you misinterpreted the text in my post. It doesn't say what you seem to think it says.

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(..& would I want a return to British Leyland cars & the culture of a UK car industry kept alive by Govt subsidies ?
No.
...but subsidies is a difficult topic, looks like the UK steel production sector is getting a lot of Govt subsidies in '23-'24).

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(Car industry.
Bit sad that the Germans are able to successfully design & build cars in volume yet the Brits can't. Audi, Opel (owned by GM (USA) ??), Volkswagen, BMW).

[doug74] 14/2/2024 17:50

Smithie, You think like my 82 year old Dad. Sure these companies are owned overseas. But the likes of Nissan and their employees pay PAYE, NI and corporation tax in the UK. Or would you prefer British Leyland again? Austin Allegro perhaps?

[smithie6] 14/2/2024 10:44

..the new big shareholders will be happy with the recent >50% share price rise

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Up about 20% so far today

..while/but is it just £10-12k of shares traded !?
...sure is illiquid

[smithie6] 14/2/2024 10:42

...hang on to your hats

The MM was willing to pay 5.9p to buy £4k of shares. So, imo the MM thinks there is more to come, or is keen to buy shares to fill sell trades he has already made today.

[dave4545] 14/2/2024 10:34

Remember on the update when they marked it down to 2.5p bid on the update trying to flush out anybody but would only offer 25k at 3.27p

mm's are absolute crooks now, no wonder most old school stocks have no volume with terrible spreads.

Value outs in the end though

[smithie6] 14/2/2024 10:25

...."a new era for British manufacturing"

Whatever was the author drinking ?!

Noting that the British own design/label car industry largely collapsed/disappeared in the 60s-70s.
What UK owned car makers still exist, Morgan ?!!!
Did TVR go bust ? Aston Martin, these names are tiny volumes. Jaguar, Mini, Range Rover, Rolls Royce are all owned by overseas companies and are always at risk of losing a % of production to cheaper overseas factories.

And Siemens making Piccadilly trains ...well, Siemens is not a British company. And I think that Britain doesn't even own/have any designs for any current high speed trains.

A new era for British manufacturing, I doubt it.
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Has the Siemens Goole factory or Alsthom one (I think they have built some UK trains in recent years) ever exported any UK made trains ?
I doubt it.

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But the cap. value of PEG is so small if it has just/even small contracts from the UK train/metro sector it can be material to the company's results.

[packman8] 14/2/2024 09:50

Another company to benefit from the Siemens factory expansion should be LPA Group.

[rivaldo] 14/2/2024 09:28

Good (though not particularly material) to see the £300k contract renewal for RTS's software licences, maintenance and support services:



I actually though this news the other day was much more significant - Siemens (a PEG customer) has transferred a load of train building work from Austria to its Goole factory:

"for a busier-than-expected spring opening, creating 2,400 jobs and signaling a resurgence in British manufacturing. The factory will produce 94 energy-efficient metro trains for the Piccadilly Line, modernizing the fleet and easing overcrowding during peak hours"

And:

"Siemens is setting its sights on securing additional contracts for both the London Underground and mainline railways"

I have no idea whether PEG will directly gain work from this. But perhaps it signals that the hiatus in UK train contracts is at last beginning to break. If so, PEG are likely to be one of the beneficiaries:

[fevertreeman] 02/2/2024 10:26

Revenues: 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016

Revenue: 10.87 13.57 13.00 15.71 19.97 £15.6m £15.3m
Op'Profit: £0.22 £0.57m -£1.14m -£1.3m £1.15m £1.24m £1.09m


This was the comment from Raschid Abdullah in the 2023 results...laughable when set against above stats:

"Management is continuing to drive the Group’s development forward, and the Board’s objectives for 2023 are for improved results, strong cash generation and to further strengthen the Group’s portfolio of businesses.”

[fevertreeman] 02/2/2024 10:16

And corporate governance in the form of independent directors is non existent.Many of us were fooled by the pronouncements by the Abdullahs, and have watched as the business has consistently shrank on every metric. Really depressing but lets hope that the new 3+% shareholders will be more engaged & vocal than the offshore holders were

[fevertreeman] 02/2/2024 10:12

They'd be enough suitors I'm sure. The problem is that the awful Abdullahs have driven this into the grounds; its effectively a lifestyle business from them, which they show absolutely no signs of wanting to give up.

My biggest worry is that they attempt a 'smash n grab' at a derisory price dressed up as an MBO just at the point that their main market Rail starts to pick up. Why do I think that? Because all teh signs are there: virtually no investment in the business: R&D has been consistently reduced; not invested in sales & marketing; talked about but not executed on any acquisition; given no updates or explanation about current & future strategy; ignored investor relations or courting new investors- website is a disgrace...if they were truly interested in driving the business forward the above would be very different.