Petards Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 10/5/2023 08:42:33

Hybridan have issued an update this morning. They forecast revenues rising this year to £11.5m and then to £11.9m next year.

They see 0.53p EPS this year rising to 0.97p EPS.

The cash pile is forecast to rise to £2.5m this year and then £3.2m - almost 70% of the current £4.7m m/cap.

In conclusion:

"Hybridan forecasts: We forecast 2023 revenue to be slightly higher than 2022,
as the demand for the Group’s ANPR solutions continues and the UK rail market for core product eyeTrain has shown signs of recovery in 4Q22, with significantly higher bid levels than have been seen over the last two years, particularly in the new build and retrofit rail rolling stock market."

[nick rubens] 09/5/2023 11:44:29

At the moment the market simply has no interest as the company has been in a stalling mode for some time. It needs some serious corporate action to get a more realistic valuation.

I'm seeing a bargain here, and have for some time and yet find myself hesitant to buy more wondering has the market got this right? I suppose I'm waiting for others to act first? Looking for a flurry of buying perhaps?

[rivaldo] 09/5/2023 07:36:34

Considering the hiatus in UK rail spending - which it seems is now improving - these are imo a rather decent set of numbers.

PEG have a m/cap of just £4.8m, yet have remained profitable despite their main division being so stymied.

They made a £0.52m PAT, and have almost £2m net cash (pre-IFRS), i.e backing up around 40% of the m/cap.

They also have excellent recurring revenues, up another 11% to £5m.

QRO is performning outstandingly, RTS are doing OK and are expected to improve, and Defence should finally pick up traction given the Ukraine war.

Above all, the recurring income and the pick-up in Rail gives encouragement for this year - a "satisfactory" and cash-generative start to trading bodes well.

Plus there's an encouraging note to possible further acquisitions from the cash pile.

And:

"We are now seeing encouraging signs for new projects, particularly in the new build and retrofit rail rolling stock market, for some of which we are currently in active negotiations."

These could be huge relative to PEG's minnow-sized m/cap.

[jeevsje] 09/5/2023 07:13:11

Really disappointing set of numbers. New financial years hasn't had a good start either ("satisfsctory").

[the oak tree] 14/3/2023 08:24:09

Sure enough that first thing in the morning spike has gone. Back to the same old......

[the oak tree] 14/3/2023 08:21:20

Bit of a spike up first thing today, perhaps its nothing and just the market makers trying to find a level.

Anyway......only thing I can see is what appears to be a new ish forecast for 2023.

FY2023 Revenue £21.5m EPS 2.9p up 2.4p giving a PE of 3.62 for 2023. That EPS is 146% up on FY2022. At some point I expect a substantial rerating. Its only a £6m cap so could move alot and quickly.

IMHO

[chunkster] 14/2/2023 16:42:36

Not had a good thing to say about this company for ages! But be realistic at double the share price this company is very cheap in the right hands.

[doug74] 14/2/2023 16:37:13

John Wakefield has a strong CV and, as mentioned above, plenty of M&A experience. Also mentioned above, Petards is sat on lots of cash. 2+2=?

[dave4545] 14/2/2023 15:42:36

Def 1 buyer taking out the max online by the looks of things.

[packman8] 14/2/2023 15:39:33

New director appointment on 1st Feb with M&A experience!! Raschid way past retirement age so might be wanting to sell out.

[faz147] 14/2/2023 15:26:24

Looks like someone started building a stake, or added to an existing hold with +250k shares, broken up into 4 trades.

No way of proving that, but seems the most likely scenario.

Could be someone has caught wind of a contract win, or year-end cash and PBT ahead of expectations (we won't know that til finals in May) or it could just be that someone has recognised how undervalued PEG is with so much cash on their books.

Either way a nice rise, and with the spread currently 18%, I wouldn't be surprised to see the bid back up to 12p or higher by the end of the week. Not selling any personally.

[dave4545] 14/2/2023 15:09:23

2 mm's were on 10.5p offer.

Sent down a 25k fill or kill rejected so decided to take the 10k NMS instead, just as it was going through 3 mm's all moved up to 11.5p offer so I just left it.

Would have been a good trade looking now

[chesty1] 14/2/2023 15:09:12

Very odd...but not complaining.

[partner] 14/2/2023 14:44:50

Someonr know, why the interest today ?.

[effortless cool] 03/2/2023 12:32:52

Looks to me like the decimal is in the wrong place.

[dalmeny] 03/2/2023 12:03:27

Under "1-month >EPS upgrades", Investors Chronicle magazine has PEG down for 2.9p. I can find no reference to this online. Does anyone have access to this forecast?

[jeevsje] 18/11/2022 13:22:05

Continuing its move upwards.

[jeevsje] 16/11/2022 08:16:41

Looks like the drop yesterday was fabricated to fill the buys. Not surprised due to the shares being tightly held. Could easily see a 20% to 30% rise based on a contract award or acquisition. Strong balance sheet.

[jeevsje] 14/11/2022 16:45:27

Weird transactions going through last few trading days, including today.

[rivaldo] 09/11/2022 09:24:01

Chelverton Growth Trust issued their prelims this morning. They have a £180,000 holding in PEG and stated the following:



"Petards has transformed its business to manage the reduction in sales in the railway supply side. It has significantly increased gross margins which has helped to manage the decline in its sales. Its objective two years ago was to move to a higher value-added service with stronger recurring revenue. It is well on the way to achieving this objective. As a measure of its undervalue, some 50% of market capitalisation is represented by cash reserves."

[rivaldo] 08/11/2022 09:36:56

Good to see Eyetrain being used by Network Rail to adopt "novel technology" to spot and alert areas of track and surroundings which are overgrown with leaves/vegetation/branches etc and reduce delays and track problems:

[rivaldo] 07/11/2022 11:58:54

Techinvest's new issue is now out, so it should be OK to post their review of the interims from last month's issue:

"Petards Group
9p (PEG; AIM)

Petards’ results for the six months ended June 30 reflect challenging conditions within the UK retail markets. Revenue was £5.5m, down from £7.7m in the first half last time. However, the result in the comparative period benefited from revenues of £1.8m from two individual shipments of equipment, one relating to Rail and one to Defence. Gross profit margin increased to 49.3% from 39.6% a year earlier due to enhanced contribution from higher margin engineering and support services and a lower cost base. Adjusted EBITDA was 35.4% lower at £0.61m and post-tax profit was £0.1m compared to £0.43m in the first half of 2021. Diluted earnings per share fell from 0.74p last time to 0.17p.

Cash generated from operating activities declined by 32.9% to £1.12m, but net funds at the period end were up by £1.0m to £2.5m (4.3p per share).

One bright spot from the results was the improved performance from the traffic management systems unit, QRO, where revenues were up over 30%. Petards’ defence business also traded above expectations in terms of revenue and margins and delivered a good result for the first half of the year. Activities in the period included the delivery of new equipment to the RAF as part of the JETS threat simulator systems five-year framework contract secured last year. The rail market, by contrast, remains challenging for Petards and the period saw a marked reduction
in eyeTrain revenues. However, revenues from spares and repairs services were back to pre-Covid levels and the company is experiencing a higher level of enquiries and tenders for rolling stock refurbishment and upgrade programmes.

All expiring RTS software licenses and support contracts were renewed with an increased number of users, and the group order book at the period end was £6.0m. Petards added that it expects further progress in the second half, leading to a
satisfactory and cash generative performance for the year as a whole.

Petards’ activities generally performed well during the first half, apart from eyeTrain where delays in order placement for new systems reduced revenues. The order book at £6.0m remains supportive and should be bolstered in the second
half by an anticipated increase in refurbishment and upgrade contracts, which management believe will prove a precursor to securing future larger contract awards as rail passenger journeys continue to recover from the extreme low of the Covid crisis in 2020. Continue to hold."

[jeevsje] 03/11/2022 14:15:12

Tbh, paying close to 10% higher for that £16k. Something is going on.

[the oak tree] 03/11/2022 11:19:11

Up approx 15% on what is a high volume for PEG. No news I can see but perhaps others know something. Having said that its only £16k worth of shares so hardly massive.

Happy to hold.

[chunkster] 12/10/2022 15:14:34

Another person sold out!! Surely this company should delist