Petards Share Discussion Threads

[mikeh30] 13/8/2014 10:46

Orrrr maybe not ..... :/

[mikeh30] 13/8/2014 09:42

Rivaldo - good morningI think there is a possibility the seller we have seen is now gone. For peel to accumulate what they need they are going to have to raise the bid to tempt sellers. They have picked up the 1st 12.2% of the company on the cheap IMO. Let's see what they will pay for the restAtb

[rivaldo] 13/8/2014 09:33

Good to see the price picking up nicely on very low volumes. Not much stock around?

[mikeh30] 05/8/2014 17:26

Excellent for ushttp://www.globalrailnews.com/2014/08/05/class-700-thameslink-rail-carriages-to-be-unveiled-at-innotrans-2014/

[rivaldo] 05/8/2014 11:49

Here's the latest major shareholder info from the web site in summary form. I can only think Peel Hunt are picking up shares for another interested party, as others have suggested. Which at least makes things here interesting to say the least!



Name of holder Number Percentage held

Peel Hunt LLP 4,229,716 12.2%
El-Khereiji Financial Company WLL 2,871,756 8.3%
Mr A Perloff 1,750,000 5.1%
Charwell Investments Limited 1,694,592 4.9%
Mr RM Abdullah 1,206,118 3.5%
Mr O Abdullah 1,208,198 3.5%

[opaldouglas] 04/8/2014 21:39

Mike - Certainly gives added confidence to the downside risk when PH are happy to mop up sells.

I'm wondering if anyone has better knowledge than I regarding the board?

El-Khereiji have got an 8.3% holding ( Andrew Perloff has a decent wedge, he has a number of holdings in listed companies and is the chairman of Panther Securities and is respected in the city.

Cherwell Investments also have a holding but I can't see how any of the above have a connection to the board or may want to stage a takeover? The most obvious would seem to be El-Khereiji who are based in Saudi and are likely to be onboard via the Abdullah's? (who both hold 3.5% respectfully).

Basically I'm still as lost as before but would be grateful if anyone could shed any further light on PEG's shareholder base?

OD

[mikeh30] 04/8/2014 19:10

OD - Definitely worth noting. The 92121 post was just to show that even though we obviously have a seller in the market, hopefully no one will get spooked by it as they are being taken (happily) by PH. I know it was a bit crudely put but looking at it in the right light, the sells are actually buys, which can't be bad :)

[opaldouglas] 04/8/2014 19:06

Mike - Worth noting that PH have picked up an additional 360,346 since the 23rd of July. The 92,121 shares was just the notifiable cross over point when they went above 12% as buying between percentage points doesn't require notification.

[tiltonboy] 04/8/2014 18:39

mike,

Very much depends on how many more Peel want to buy, and if there is any catalyst to move the price out of the current price range.

Peel's seem happy to sit on the bid, and pick up all the loose stock that comes available. I'm surprised they haven't dropped the bid a little, as they would still be picking up the lower levels.

I would guess the stock is coming from placees in last year's fund raise, bored holders waiting for the next contract announcement, and a little bit of loan conversion.

[mikeh30] 04/8/2014 18:24

Tiltonboy - do you think there is a possibility it could get very hard to buy here soon?

[tiltonboy] 04/8/2014 18:20

i2,

It's an odd and intriguing situation. I would guess that only Peel's dealer...and a possible buyer of the stake know what is going on.

[jungmana] 04/8/2014 18:09

Imo PH are buying for someone. Similar thing is happening with AEY. Morgan stanley have been buying on tsx from last week and imo is for a client. Interesting weeks ahead here.

[mikeh30] 04/8/2014 17:59

It's baffling me too why they are holding so much. Is an unwanted takeover on the cards, PH accumulating a large amount for someone to vote NO? Other answers on a postcard.

[interceptor2] 04/8/2014 17:56

So if every sell is being brought by Peel Hunt, then the next disclosure at 13% would be appx 131k additional shares.

Friday had 57,944 sells and today was 49,559, which = 107,503, so could we see another holding RNS later this week.?

I can't pretend to understand why Peel Hunt is holding all these shares, but it is an interesting situation.

[tiltonboy] 04/8/2014 17:46

Every sell is also a buy!

[mikeh30] 04/8/2014 17:35

Peel hunt picked up another 92121 shares.The sum of all the PI shares sold on 31/7/14 is 92121.Every sell can be classed as a buy ;)

[interceptor2] 04/8/2014 17:33

very true opaldouglas re no restructuring cost or finance charge expected this year. With only 4 weeks to wait for the half year results, I will be very interested to work out the likely earnings for the full year.

Attractive risk/reward at today's valuation imo.

[mikeh30] 04/8/2014 17:26

Peel hunt at it again

[opaldouglas] 04/8/2014 08:14

Only a month, good stuff. Looking forward to figures.

[cfro] 04/8/2014 07:49

3rd September it is then.

[opaldouglas] 03/8/2014 21:23

interceptor2 - worth noting that last year they had restructuring costs and interest payable on debt which isn't the case this year (apart from CLN's).

OD

[interceptor2] 03/8/2014 17:49

Some excellent posts here which are much appreciated, also excellent point about market and certainly AIM being guided by psychology and sentiment. Spot on imo.

Back in December I worked out some conservative estimates for 2014, much has happened in the past 8 month's, which have made my forecasts look even more conservative.

Sector average net margins are 5.7%, and PEG made 5% net margins in 2009, so I have used 5% net margins. I think £13.0m revenue is fair considering we know that £10,0m is a starting point already mentioned by management. So my PAT figure came to £650k, which = 1.94p EPS.

The future for PEG is very exciting imv.

[opaldouglas] 03/8/2014 01:00

re - psychology & sentiment = spot on.

[mikeh30] 02/8/2014 23:23

Re: the seller, I'm not worried about it. It is not tanking the price on a daily basis, but small buys will make it tick up.I'm sure ph will accumulate over 15% and all will become clear

[mikeh30] 02/8/2014 23:10

OD - very informative thank you.The upside on top of what you have mentioned is that the market and especially aim, is guided on mass psychology and sentiment.On a positive statement based on conservative pat figures of between 500k-£1m with future contract wins imvho I think we could see a spike to the 42p level, settling around the 30p mark you mentioned.Lots of upside.