Pensana Share Discussion Threads

[lewis winthorpe] 23/12/2022 00:29

When have any timelines been hit? And if the risk reward play is there, why is the volume really low? Next to nothing despite M&G assumed optimism

[cyberbub] 22/12/2022 20:12

It's entirely possible that financing has improved rapidly - or at least that forecasts are that it will improve significantly in the next couple of months. I agree that the 8-9% financing will not return anytime soon, but if we could get 10-12% that would seem acceptable ,to me anyway. Would probably need a bit more equity raising, but remember that the construction period before cashflow is not enormous, less than 2 years if we believe PA. Of course all the enabling works taking place currently will help.

[mwj1959] 22/12/2022 17:35

Investors should be under no illusion that this is continues to be a very high risk / high reward share, despite the obvious merits of the project. That's why I've described the shares as long-dated options in the past...you could lose everything or make multiples. Clearly, most of us think the latter (eventually), but it's for the former reason that my investment remains a relatively modest one and certainly one that wouldn't be the end of the world if I had to write it off.
I am still struggling to reconcile what I heard around financing at the AGM and PA's far more optimistic tone in the recent M&G additional funding announcement. Has the financing backdrop really improved that much in a couple of weeks?

[lewis winthorpe] 22/12/2022 11:38

So, as I said double shares in issue so at this price 22p. Offset somewhat by derisking so 35-40p.Now the plus will be that it should be the start of the upward lassonde curve so entry under 40p seems a good one for long term should the project go smoothly.Dyor

[cyberbub] 22/12/2022 09:22

Yes there will definitely be some equity dilution. 30% or so is standard for mining-related funding packages. Whether it's top-level or project-level it's still dilution. Absolutely normal and nothing to fear. I'm factoring in an 'effective' 500M shares after completion of both projects' funding, I think this is conservative and it may end up fewer shares than that.NAI etc

[cyberbub] 22/12/2022 09:18

Raremurph accusing a company of naked fraud on a public forum, 8 days after he joined Advfn... Draw your own conclusions...

[lewis winthorpe] 22/12/2022 09:16

Acre,PA duting crux and AGM has always said Saltend $250m with $175m bond, $75m from strategic investor equity.

[raremurph] 22/12/2022 08:41

Thanks for that Hogwatch. That doesn’t look good at all and has all the hallmarks of a massive fraud. I hope that I’m wrong, but it seems that PA has been economical with the truth to raise money and has little, or no integrity. I will not be investing any more funds into Pensana until they demonstrate that they can deliver on promises and reply to investors emails.

[mhssh] 22/12/2022 08:08

To me, those photographs look as if 0, of any moment, is happening at either site. Hope I am wrong.

[cyberbub] 21/12/2022 22:52

Hogwatch LOL :-)

[hogwatch] 21/12/2022 21:53

RareMurph - this from LSE chat:
What's happening at Saltend Reedmere & Longonjo?Mon 22:58

See here:

posted 16 Dec 22 - China Blue's comment sums it up.

The good news - it's definitely Reedmere site not the earlier Swamp of Despond site, which is nice. And it's a different excavator to the one they rented for PA & Kwasi's shovel shot. Remember him? (Kwarteng I mean).
Bad news - that large blue pipework looks like standard mains water main gate valve connection so that'll be PX Group's men hard at work, not Pensana's.
Judging by the damage to the access road, I'd guess they rolled 20m of hot tarmac just for the shot, about 10 mins before it was taken... then had to beg a local farmer to bring in his forklift to unstick the digger.
Longonjo looks like a similar story - the Repo company's just seized their only decent sized grader, but the lads have managed to blag a tractor from a local farmer which is just as good - honest.

[raremurph] 21/12/2022 17:33

Hi, has anyone on here actually been to Saltend for a site visit? It’s 5 months now since PA and Kwai Kwarteng “broke ground.” I would like to see what progress has been made. I have emailed Pensana re this, but they haven’t got back to me yet..

[cyberbub] 21/12/2022 14:43

I wouldn't have invested at 120p personally. But I've made plenty of similar mistakes myself, we all have. If you're encouraged by M&G, you could consider averaging down? A lot easier at these prices... Of course it could still fall further, no one has a crystal ball! Good luck anyway.

[mhssh] 21/12/2022 13:53

Invested when optimistic of future, avrge price £1.20. I am with LW, zero trust in management. But I admit I am influenced, to some degree, by M&G continued support. I have to assume that M&G must have dug deep before adding more cash. I am now very much "in for a penny..........", and will stay in for the ride.

[lewis winthorpe] 21/12/2022 13:06

Wise acre, you need to research further. Saltend was bond to tune of 175mill but still 75 mill from equity placing. LJ is another 250, split to be determined.Now you could gamble on the dilution impact being offset by project finance security but that depends upon the equity price. Looking at the latest raise that must have been worked out week's before now (when the share price dropped from 50p+ to 44p), my guess is placing price of 30-35p if the price holds. If long term and believe in project then buy today. If you are looking for short term return then I would wait personally.My avg is 75p, if I can get out at that, fine with me, fed up of missed promises. Zero trust in management unfortunately.

[wiseacre] 21/12/2022 10:16

The current nadir in the share price suggests the fear of uncertainty that, in these parlous markets, the company will fail to get the planned bond issue away to fund Saltend.
The placing of shares with M&G is an indication that the fears are exaggerated and should be a shot in the arm for confidence in the future. In fact now is a perfect buying opportunity. The company has repeatedly said it intends to fund its capital needs by debt (in the form of a green bond) and not equity. Once the bond issue is secured I see the shares bounding ahead in quick order.

[mikethebike4] 21/12/2022 09:56

mhssh

most investment decisions contain a degree of speculation - the trick is to sort out the wheat from the chaf

[sirmark] 21/12/2022 09:55

Good call on the price, so now sorted onwards and upwards the share price should now start to recover.

[cyberbub] 21/12/2022 09:30

You're a glass-half-empty investor msshh! Assuming that you're 'long', why would anyone invest in a share where they're pessimistic about its future?

[mhssh] 21/12/2022 09:20

Well I can only conclude that either M&G know something we do not know, or I am not reading the tea leaves correctly apropos the outlook based on the information currently available in the public forum.

[mikethebike4] 21/12/2022 09:00

Well done Cyberbub - 44p spot on !!

Here we go folks

Further placing - no problem when the time comes!

[mwj1959] 21/12/2022 08:46

"this additional investment will take us through to main financing and the
commencement of main construction at both projects during Q1 of 2023."
Will it? Given what PA said at the AGM about the unacceptably high cost of debt financing at present it felt as if they were a long way from achieving this.
Yields in the HY market (most relevant for the Saltend part of the financing) still remain elevated, albeit off their Q4 highs.
Looks too optimistic to me unless they've accepted that to get the show on the road they're going to have to capitulate on the cost of debt front. That would be a significant shift from what I was told at the AGM by various board directors (including Steve Clarke the NED who is heavily involved in this).
But clearly to get M&G to fork out a further £3m+, on the top of the £10m they provided (at 81p)a year ago, I would like to think that progress has been made. Whether PA has overpromised to M&G is a different matter!

[cyberbub] 21/12/2022 08:36

Well I said yesterday that a placing had probably already been done at 44p... Et voila!!

This weekend's lottery numbers are...

:-)