Pensana Share Discussion Threads

[advfnsta] 29/11/2020 16:14

What about PEK or EMT?

[yumyum] 29/11/2020 11:52

GGG....great ticker but cannot see they ever got up to speed with anything. I remember them over 10 yrs ago (15 ?) as a uranium company. Capital cost is very high and they need to deal with the uranium. Maybe that is why Trump wanted to buy Greenland :-)

Shenghe as a shareholder is a plus...insofaras they have expertise and potential access to China capital markets...but the uranium is a minus (Denmark not pro-nuclear...although I am).

Pensana is my only REE investment so far and I do not really see something more attractive in that space.

[chinasyndrome] 29/11/2020 08:58

Yumyum, Nobody can claim a "Proven" Ore Reserve until they run the economics thru an accurate model. Proven Ore has to be able to carry the full cost of the operation that mines it, including rehabilitation and finance costs. Something I doubt MP will ever be able to do ! 1Mt @ 7% with 70% recovery and 25%NdPr content equals around 12,000t which when refined is worth $735M. That is if they produce NdPrO ? but they are not yet and wont till 2022 !,

Now the sucker share holders have just paid US$2B for it and the US Tax payer has also contributed, Fortress and the previous Chinese owners have made a killing on the IPO !

What are your thoughts on GGG, you forgot to comment on them ?

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 23:59

Chinasyndrome, you say ''Not even Lynas has ever achieved that and They DO have an Ore body, Mine, Processing Plant and Refinery. The only reason MP is US$22 is because it has been pumped up with cash and they have people like you suggesting that it is the best thing since Eldorado !..''

It cannot be the only reason because Lynas is also pumped up with cash for their new processing/refiney.
I doubt people like me make any difference to the share price. I hope not.

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 23:52

Chinasyndrome, is it right Pensana so far have zero ''Proven'' or reserve ?

Maybe I missed something but the last I saw was Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource estimate of: 313 million tonnes at 1.43% REO including 0.32% NdPr for 4,470,000 tonnes of REO including 990,000 tonnes of NdPr

Better resources for Pensana compared to MP, albeit at lower grade ?

I obviously missed something. Sorry for that. What is Pensana's proven ore reserve ?

I understand that we need the BFS (due mid-Oct but delayed to January 2021 at the earliest) for that ? Please correct me if that is wrong.

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 23:42

It looks very expensive Chinasyndrome, I agree. I am not promoting them. Never have. Just your knocking made me over react. They have a plan...is it good ?...time will tell. Pensana has a plan, hopefully they know what it is soon. Is it good?....time will tell....but at Pensana's low share price that is a better bet than MP or Lynas....or any other on the horizon so far. Peak may be ok....but tricky politics and behind the curve without sudden financing.

$250m EBITDA end-2023 is not to be sneezed at for MP. Is it realistic ?

Increased reserve MP will have to prove up fairly soon ....or not. I think you may be wrong about that. As you know they stated earlier just this WEEK that their recoverable reserves and resources are 948k mt tREO at approx 7%. That is massive and high grade. I assume you are an ex-Molycorp investor and lost your shirt. I am sorry about that. Bad timing all round, including the management choices.

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 16:43

MP estimate approx $250M Adj. EBITDA for 2023
This is basis expected production of ~6,075 mt NdPr in separated and refined form.

No idea with BFS (was due mid-Oct, now due hopefully in January) .... perhaps Pensana too could do something reasonably close to that ?

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 16:15

If they could get full equipment financing and a bank loan/bond funding for the rest it would be fantastic news of course. But a kindof miracle.

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 16:13

Not really conceivable.

[herlat1] 27/11/2020 16:08

YUMYUM you keep banging on about an equity raise.

What do you think the PRE share price would go up to if Pensana didn’t do an equity raise and was funded another way?

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 15:53

...let's say Pensana issue 130m new shares (big equity stake in UK refinery)...then Pensana would have 320m shares, double those of MP. MP shares up US$1 today would equal Pensana up $0.50 or £0.37 or AUs$0.67

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 15:47

To be clear, I think MP is probably overvalued. Maybe not. The higher MP goes the better for Pensana.

MP and Pensana are at different stages, to a certain extent. But if we pretended they were similar - MP has approx 160 m shares, whilst Pensana has approx 190 m shares...similarish.....MP plans ro resume onsite refining in 2023...similar timing to Pensana (in the UK) ?

I recommend MP's Q3 report/overview. It puts down some numbers that we can try and extrapolate over to Pensana.

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 13:28

cyberbub, that is a very good point. If the Chinese are making the equipment for mining, and also for initial processing, then I suppose it would likely still make sense for them to provide financing. Obviously not really for the UK refinery/processing.

[robbiekeane] 27/11/2020 13:11

UK processing plant will be there to supply the worlds largest wind farm project (Dogger bank), UK's defence / aerospace industry and European EV market. The sooner the Pensana mine starts producing the better, probably a couple of years away but should be in time for peak demand shortfall estimated to be in 2023.

[cyberbub] 27/11/2020 12:56

One thing I don't quite understand about the idea for a UK processing plant. The only way this makes sense is if they expect to sell most/all of their end product into the UK or EU market (rather than China). But in that case will the Chinese banks still be willing to lend the Angolan project 85% of its capex? The Chinese don't usually lend unless the project directly benefits China politically and economically. Any comments?

[merie] 27/11/2020 10:59

The stooge finally reveals his hand!

[yumyum] 27/11/2020 08:30

Hahahahaha. MP seem perfectly open about that. I mean that is the PLAN !

Through the business combination and related PIPE transaction, MP Materials raised $545 million to fully fund its three-stage business plan to restore the full rare earth materials supply chain to the U.S., closing a critical defense and economic security gap
• On November 17, 2020, the Department of Defense (“DoD”) announced that MP Materials was awarded a Defense Production Act Title III technology investment agreement, which includes a $9.6 million DoD contribution to MP’s Stage II optimization
• Completed front-end engineering design (FEED) and all circuit designs for Stage II optimization

[chinasyndrome] 27/11/2020 04:19

If ever you needed a reason to build and operate your own "In-House Processing" here it is

I imagine Mountain Pass who are currently selling their Concentrate @ $3,193/t to China are keeping very quiet about how much they are currently missing out on. Great business case  Trump/Fortress have, Sink a Billion dollars (inc Tax payers money) into a worn out mine so that you can supply your competition with cheap raw product;  that they can then make massive profits on by selling the processed product back to you.!

Praseodymium Oxide (USD/mt)
56,269.49-57,790.28
57,029.88
+2,281.2


Neodymium Oxide (USD/mt)
77,560.64-79,081.44
78,321.04
+1,520.8
Nov 27, 2020

[value viper] 26/11/2020 10:54

Now trading on SetsBetter for liquidity and allows institutional interest

[chinasyndrome] 26/11/2020 01:23

Herlat1, see there was method behind her not so subtle Trolling, She was just trying to screw the share price down before she bought in.... lol

I doubt if she holds GGG, If you/we think MP is a basket case, then they are the full truck load. Ten years in transition from a Uranium hopeful to a RE wanabee without yet getting an EIS, ML or BFS, Cold climate operations full of Uranium, Thorium and Lead that they can't export to their Chinese partner because of US/EU restrictions !

LYC might be a possibility, although they are probably more concerned with how they are going to make ends meet with their Kalgoorlie plant and the crop of other explorers who will be in competition for Oz Govt hand outs.

Whatever, she has quickly become irrelevant, this game is about to change with the current NdPr supply/price skirmishing set to become an all out trade War. Even the Wannabee's are going to ride on the back of the coming wave, Pensana will be near the crest.

[yumyum] 26/11/2020 00:39

...and I was jumped on by you and China....rampers only club.