Pendragon Share Discussion Threads

[jaknife] 02/1/2024 11:57

loglorry1,

"Does anyone know what date PDG goes ex-dividend for the cash repayment of 24.5p."

The exact date hasn't been announced. However ...

From:

Pendragon Circular Proposed Disposal Partnership

"The Transaction Dividend is expected to be paid in Q1 2024 to those Shareholders who hold Ordinary Shares (other than Lithia in respect of the Subscription Shares) at the relevant record time. Further details in respect of the intended Transaction Dividend, including the record time for participating in such Transaction Dividend, will be announced by the Company in due course." [my bold] (from page 9)

And more recently from the 28 Dec RNS:



"The Transaction Dividend is now expected to be paid in Q1/Q2 2024."

The subtle change of timing does make it look as if the dividend payment has likely been pushed into Q2 albeit all of the conditions are expected to be satisfied by 31 January and so I don't see what's stopping them paying the dividend much earlier. I had originally expected Feb 14th - two weeks after the conditions are satisfied - but that looks too optimistic now.

JakNife

[loglorry1] 02/1/2024 10:55

Does anyone know what date PDG goes ex-dividend for the cash repayment of 24.5p.

[niklol] 01/1/2024 12:37

Thanks all.
Managed to listen via YouTube.
I feel optimistic now.
Big question is whether one is better to buy before or after.
Need a crystal ball!

[samsj] 31/12/2023 20:41

I’m guessing this, from Nov, makes similar points to Harwood, if you havent seen: hxxps://www.clarksquarecapital.com/p/three-minute-pitch-revisiting-tmp

[niklol] 31/12/2023 17:09

Thanks JakNife
Will try that
Happy New Year all

[jaknife] 31/12/2023 15:52

niklol,

I've just double checked and it's working fine for me as well.

You could also try:



and look for the video posted 12 days ago with the title:

"Vox Markets Fund Manager Series: Christopher Mills, CEO of Harwood Capital"

JakNife

[niklol] 31/12/2023 15:39

Strange!
I'm on my mobile.
When I have time I'll try on my PC

[jaf111] 31/12/2023 15:09

Well the link worked fine for me…..

[niklol] 31/12/2023 14:29

JakNife
Unfortunately neither this nor your previous one works.
The latest one is just dashes and the 1st one nothing was there at all, just a blank space!

[jaknife] 31/12/2023 14:22

niklol,

From my post 3,546:

============================
FWIW, if anyone's interested Chris Mills sets out the bull case for holding Pendragon in this interview with Paul Hill:



the Pendragon segment starts at about 3:35 and is mixed in with a general commentary on M&A.

JakNife

[niklol] 31/12/2023 13:34

Jaknife
Thanks for your post.
I would love to listen to or watch Chris Mill's video.
Is there a link or anything you could post please?
Many thanks

[jaknife] 31/12/2023 12:12

niklol,

"Am I correct that however many shares held in PDG will be the same of shares
in Pinewood but at approx 10p per share?"

Yes ... but ...

The deal structure is (broadly):

1. Pendragon pays a dividend of 24.5p, hence on the current numbers (share price of 32.3p) the share price should fall to 7.8p ( 32.3p - 24.5p ).

2. Lithia will put money into the remaining Pendragon business and be issued shares at 10.3p a share.

3. The business will be renamed "Pinewood Technologies plc".

So nothing ever happens to your original shares, you will always hold the same number.

But the "10p" seems a bit vague at the moment, it looks to me that it could be generally anything in the range of 7.8p to 10.3p but then there's nothing stopping it being less or more! And if you listen to Chris Mills in the video highlighted above I think that he suggests a 40p value for the remaining business, which seems very optimistic!

JakNife

[jaf111] 31/12/2023 11:30

Yes, the same number of shares…...unless they do a share consolidation…..

[niklol] 31/12/2023 09:28

Am I correct that however many shares held in PDG will be the same of shares
in Pinewood but at approx 10p per share?
Thanks

[samsj] 31/12/2023 00:12

thanks yes you're right - I don't live in uk so had forgotten that part which is perhaps one of the few less favourable aspects if caught outside the tax wrappers he mentioned... Will be interesting to see how trades after ex-divi to see if the points he make have any validity...

[jaknife] 31/12/2023 00:07

I presume he's assuming that the recipient earns over £125k and so is an Additional rate tax payer. They would have to pay tax at a rate of 39.35%,

see:

24.5p X 39.35% = 9.64p

so he's rounded up for dramatic effect!

JakNife

[samsj] 31/12/2023 00:01

how does he get to 10p tax on the dividend? edit: ok sorry, I wasn't aware UK resident dividend tax rates went up to just under 40%...

[jaknife] 30/12/2023 10:21

I would concur, the exact times are unknown but Thursday's RNS suggests that we're on target for a dividend probably in the middle of February:



FWIW, if anyone's interested Chris Mills sets out the bull case for holding Pendragon in this interview with Paul Hill:



the Pendragon segment starts at about 3:35 and is mixed in with a general commentary on M&A.

JakNife

[niklol] 30/12/2023 09:49

Thanks for your explanation.
I also thought along those lines, however after noticing so many 'buys' I thought that perhaps I was missing something?

[cb7] 30/12/2023 08:47

I am no longer a holder, but would suggest, (although announcement doesnt say specifically), that it will go ex dividend on the 1/2, meaning the shareprice will fall by 24.5p. All those holding shares at close on 31/1 will receive the 24.5p payment at a later date.

[niklol] 29/12/2023 11:22

Pls could anyone expain what is expected to happen to the share price once the deal is done end January?
Thank you

[hope1815] 27/10/2023 10:12

This means the size of the £260m claim has now been substantially reduced. Some reports suggest this could now be as little as £1m. The claimant said it would argue this part of the ruling in the Court of Appeal.

[niklol] 25/10/2023 14:04

Result of General Meeting
Resolution approved by shareholders

[tr200g] 17/10/2023 23:04

No bidding war sadly but attention should now focus on the value in the N.American JV which surely has to be considerably more than the 0.6p we are held to believe

in simple terms we know Lithia spend $100m now. The JV is on arms length but say they get the $100m down to $80m by using Pinewood. There will be minimal associated sales costs obviously but some management/service costs on those users. So the JV should deliver $60m+ of EBIT (allowing for some sales staff to target non Lithia) of which we have 49%. Put that on 15x EBIT given the opportunity to grow it outside Lithia and our 49% is worth $450m ie. 22p a share on the new share count. The road to the $60m is visible pretty quickly too- the published docs demonstrate the two firms want to get on with the customisation process to ready the package for the US. The rollout is targeted to be done within 18mths. I have seen a JPM note that says Lithia spends $150m per annum on the stuff PW does so my numbers could be way low

PS. you will note that in 2019 PW delivered the same EBIT more or less as now but on revenue of £16m not the £27m we have now -ie. we have put in huge operating costs to build out the product and move into new geogs since then implying the product really has minimal running costs to serve . 2019 saw £18.3m rev and £13.4m operating profit which included a small head office allocation

PPS. the market may have missed that in Lithia's own announcement re its increased bid it noted that it has already secured 7,500 additional potential UK users contingent on this deal going thru. This is pretty amazing and at 90% GM, this could drop £5m thru to the bottom line in short order