Pcf Share Discussion Threads

[graham1ty] 07/2/2020 07:44

Very good write up. Hope this reverses the drip, drip of selling

[1jbrisky] 06/2/2020 20:39

I see ST has included PCF in his bargain shares portfolio for 2020. Very detailed assessment & reads well. Full article online for IC subscribers or on newsstands tomorrow. Should give us a nice lift.

[cc2014] 28/1/2020 10:21

Nothing we can do about it Graham.

I note the selling kicked off yesterday morning. It's difficult to say because FTSE gapped down yesterday aggressively but I'm more minded to think it was the collapse in the Amigo share price that did it.

I'm afraid part of the challenge of the stock market is that not all holders will fully understand what PCF do and we've seen PCF come under pressure as PFG, NSF, FCF and others in the sub-prime sector's business models have proved to be flawed. We had the fall on the PCP finance too, which I think Scott must be tired of repeating endlessly PCF don't do.

We know that PCF's business is in excess of 75% prime and growing) and it's cost of financing are low as it's a bank and the interest rates it charges aren't under srutiny by the government, but nevertheless there are always holders who will sell on a bad day on FTSE or on news which they think is related but actually isn't.


As we've said before the company will keep on delivering, profits will grow, eventually the market cap will reach £100m and then the share price will start to get re-rated. Market cap currently £85m so not so far to go.

I expect it will gap-up on the next trading update/results.

[graham1ty] 28/1/2020 09:24

This sideways drift is getting really dull ! The Annual Report is due soon, but unlikely to contain anything new.

Then we have to wait for the AGM and accompanying trading statement, but that will not be until early March, probably another six weeks.

The share price burst through into the mid 30s almost two years ago, and cannot get back to those heady levels. Despite the loan book being a year ahead of forecasts then; NIM being stronger than people feared; impairments apparently under control; acquiring Azule, which seems to be a cracking good acquisition; and building a team for bridging finance.

Oh well, patience is required

[cc2014] 24/1/2020 12:16

What a frustrating day again. All my banks are blue but sellers again today. I've got that sort of feeling that someone is dripping shares into the market at or just below 35p.

[cc2014] 23/1/2020 10:29

I'm inclined to agree Graham. The 400k at 35.5p will be a delayed trade so can't have been a sell as the price has never reached that. Along with the 2 350k trades on 14th Jan it looks like someone has been accumulating some stock without disturbing the price too much. No idea if they've finished.

I'm guessing that someone has felt comforted by the election result, but also falling interest rates. I assume what PCF will save in paying savers less will be generally counterbalanced by charging customers less, but the political stability and likelyhood of falling rates leads to lower impairment rates.

[graham1ty] 22/1/2020 16:40

Another reasonably chunky trade of 400,000 shares. I hope this is an institution soaking up the selling and using the chance to build a position while the share price languishes in the mid 30s.

[cc2014] 21/1/2020 15:29

Last MM at 36p has moved up at last, which hopefully means we are ready to move up again.

(Note I'm a little nervous we still have a seller releasing stock into the market in drips at 35p but as long as the buys keep outweighing sells I don't care)

[graham1ty] 15/1/2020 16:40

At c40% growth forecast, this gets 1% cheaper every ten days !

[cc2014] 15/1/2020 14:47

34p on the bid, 36p being paid which is the most we've seen for a while.

I feel quite optimistic.

[cc2014] 14/1/2020 15:36

The 350k must be a buy as it's a sell of that size surely would have gone through at 32p or lower. The question is where the MM have got the stock from to fill that order. Perhaps we will see another large trade later, perhaps the 350k scoops up all the stock the MM had spare and they are looking to find part of it from sellers at 34p.

[graham1ty] 14/1/2020 11:32

350,000 gone through at 35p. I hope that is an institution slowly accumulating stock.

Share price dead in the water until the AGM. As PCFs brokers do not use Research Tree, Private investors are in the dark. It is a real issue now. Maybe each company should be encouraged to have at least one broker whose research is available to smaller investors ? On the PCF website there is only Brokerlink and that is now seven months out of date. On Research Tree, nothing since Stockdale, ten months ago.

Scott, how can this be addressed ? You do the rounds of MELLO, ShareSoc etc, and are very good at seeing private investors. But we are locked out of research ?

[lees65] 13/1/2020 13:57

Thanks. It must just be a lack of coverage, being a small company. I think the AGM update should be healthy and give it a bounce. I suppose also being compared to other banks might not help, when PCF has no legacy problems and is growing.

Maybe also when it hits £100m mk cap it will get onto funds radar screens?

[topvest] 11/1/2020 10:51

BCB sold their holding to Somers, I believe. Already announced.

[graham1ty] 10/1/2020 19:23

Lees, are Bermuda Bank not just selling their holding to Somers ? There is no one selling in the market

[the millipede] 10/1/2020 16:51

Volumes are very small so I doubt there is an institution selling down. But WDIK

[lees65] 09/1/2020 17:33

We have a P/E ratio of 10, similar to the main clearing banks, no legacy problems and fast growth. I would have thought this should be higher. Some possibilities:

Is it Bermuda Bank selling down its holding post or pre sale?
Just as a small co investors lose interest between announcements?

I don't mind as I am a major long term holder but it would be nice if some of the potential came into the share price now rather than later. I think, given growth, and a higher P/E perhaps a 50% increase this year? Just sit tight it will come.

[lees65] 09/1/2020 17:32

We have a P/E ratio of 10, similar to the main clearing banks, no legacy problems and fast growth. I would have thought this should be higher. Some possibilities:

Is it Bermuda Bank selling down its holding post or pre sale?
Just as a small co investors lose interest between announcements?

I don't mind as I am a major long term holder but it would be nice if some of the potential came into the share price now rather than later. I think, given growth, and a higher P/E perhaps a 50% increase this year? Just sit tight it will come.

[cc2014] 07/1/2020 15:58

Hi Graham,

By this board I meant ADVFN not this thread and I agree this thread is pretty good.

I take it you don't spend much time on Twitter which is another world of ramping/deramping. It's the same as it's always been whatever the media. PCF with it's tightly held share register is a target. Can't say I'm that bothered. Happy to hold for the long term and as the market cap grows the share register will become populated with more and more institutions.

[graham1ty] 06/1/2020 14:12

CC this Board has actually been pretty good quality.

There are stocks that are fundamentally “dodgy” (WSG), or speculative ( UKOG) or just impossible to value/understand ( BUR). Those kind of stocks get deramped.

PCF fits in to none of those categories, so I would have hardly thought it was worth the derampers effort. PCF will just stick to its knitting, produce the results, and the share price will look after itself.

[cc2014] 06/1/2020 10:57

The challenge with this Board is that posters can write whatever they want. It's not moderated or fact checked.

We have rampers/de-rampers/posters with multilpe logins most of which are working on short term timescales looking for a quick turn.

History shows that most of these posters don't suceed financially but as one loses their pot, there's always a never ending supply of replacement posters.

I'm very tired of it and read and post less and less. Which is a great pity as there are some very good posters on here too.

[graham1ty] 03/1/2020 18:23

Tongosti ......are you wanting it to fall ?

U hope for a better entry point ?

I hope there is next to no chance of it getting down to 30p

[tongostl] 03/1/2020 17:21

What's the chances of this getting to 30p?

[topvest] 02/1/2020 18:17

Somers AR is also available. All looks OK to me. The loss is due to forex movements. Post year end they have successfully listed MJ Hudson on AIM. They have increased the dividend and carried on buying back shares. Somers is fully invested, but will have funds to invest again once the Bermuda bank is sold- it’s awaiting regulatory approval.
If you research Utilico, UEM and Somers you will understand two things:
-ICM who manage all of these interconnected companies are sound investors and the two owners, Jillings and Saville, are astute and successful managers.
-The structure of their personal holdings and multiple listed holding companies, means that many of their investment valuations are discounted.
PCF are a controlled company of Somers. Somers has a very low valuation in Bermuda versus its intrinsic value. PCF similarly will never achieve a toppy valuation until Somers exit.
Understand all of this and you will understand the PCF valuation better.
For what it’s worth, despite the relatively high ongoing costs, I do follow and hold UIL and UEM as they are sound investment vehicles generally hitting my targeted 10% annual return. Management will always do better than investors but they are well worth following in my view. I can’t think of many failed investments that they have made over the last 10 years or so and they have done some fairly eclectic ones, including a gold miner!