Pcf Share Discussion Threads

[graham1ty] 02/1/2020 17:37

Tongosti......”;I completely agree....merely pointing out an article”.

But your post read:
“PCFs largest holder Somers is having its own financial difficulties at the moment, we may see some selling down here as a consequence.”

Which appears not be what the article was saying, or implying, so I think your post was a tad misleading........

However, peace made. PCF is a great company and we will all hopefully do well ! I do not want to get into an argument.

[tongostl] 02/1/2020 17:32

I completely agree Graham, PCF is a great company and has been a great investment for Somers. In my original post I was mearly pointing out an article I had come across, which to be honest, doesn't indicate Somers will be selling anytime soon.

[topvest] 02/1/2020 17:30

Somers is doing fine when I last reviewed their accounts. UIL, listed in London and Bermuda, hold a large stake in Somers and are doing well. UIL provide regular updates on Somers for those that are interested. It’s the Utilico connection that convinced me to back this. They are fairly sound value investors and good for a 10% per annum return generally, albeit the returns would be better if the 2 founders didn’t skim their high charges off at the top. They also run UEM.

[tongostl] 02/1/2020 16:10

Let's hope it is just a scare story, because if Somers were forced to start selling this would be 10p faster than you can say "let's get brexit done"

[graham1ty] 02/1/2020 10:34

It’s a $9.7m loss in the article. Not $97m as the header suggests.

It also says ( assuming the article is accurate) that Somers has gearing of 12%, and is selling Bermuda Commercial Bank, which will raise capital to pay down debt.

With net assets of $423m, Somers is hardly struggling !

Scare story. Rubbish

[carcosa] 02/1/2020 09:48

Suggest reading their annual report would be a better informed source.

[tongostl] 02/1/2020 09:43

hxxp://mobile.royalgazette.com/local-business/article/20191227/somers-reports-97m-loss-for-year&template=mobileart

[solarno lopez] 02/1/2020 09:38

Very interesting if the information can be verified

[bdroop] 02/1/2020 09:26

That’s interesting tongostl, I haven’t picked up on anything like that. Are you able to direct me towards further information on that score?

[tongostl] 02/1/2020 09:12

PCFs largest holder Somers is having its own financial difficulties at the moment, we may see some selling down here as a consequence.

[cc2014] 18/12/2019 12:24

Hi Graham, I was just about to post. I know we continue to see the constant selling (short term timeframe PIs moving on to the next thing?) but it looks to me like someone is trying to collect shares as cheaply as they can.

Today we have 36k sellers and that 52k buyer. Yesteray we had a 51k of buyers again matching the sellers (I see the 21,892 as a roll-over).

It's peanuts for an institution but it's how they would work in a scenario like this because they know if they are patient the next trading update is for ages and we will probably just see drip selling. Their alternative would be to use the "smash and grab raid" by moving the price to 40p but that's risky on small caps as often PI's see the momentum and join it rather than sell.

I am quite hopeful. The market has gone into depression after Boris' legal one year to leave the EU, but I think that's him testing his MP's to get behind him. It really doesn't matter as they can pass new legislation to change the timeframe and I believe it's their to focus the mind. If he hadn't set a date of end Nov to leave then he wouldn't have achieved Jan, we would still be faffing around now. I think it's the same ploy. Of course the city don't agree, or maybe they want to collect shares cheap! not that I want to leave the EU but that's just my opinion.

[graham1ty] 18/12/2019 12:03

Good, another buy of 52,000 at 35.57p. That should have soaked up the sellers of the last few days. I hope it is an institution using the (slight) liquidity.

PCF has completely avoided the Boris Bounce and constant selling has been boring. It is depressing that PCF will end the year DOWN, despite being so far ahead of where they thought they would be.....

Our time will come

[graham1ty] 13/12/2019 12:10

It was interesting listening to Scott at MELLO. He reflected what a lot of us knew: that businesses, people, departments were deferring decisions because of uncertainty.

Uncertainty about Corbyn, a hung parliament, Brexit.

I wonder whether that will now change and an appetite for making that investment decision, whether a car, horse box, or capital equipment will re-emerge.

PCF would benefit from this ( as would many, many other businesses)

[paleje] 12/12/2019 23:51

Early election results if they continue as indicated might not do us any harm either.

[graham1ty] 12/12/2019 16:35

Saved by the bell. Stonking 353,000 buy at 36p. Hopefully cleared out the market.

And might just halt this nervous slide

[graham1ty] 12/12/2019 11:02

Blimey, what did Scott say last night !!! Knocked a couple of pennies off

Only joking, everyone a bit tentative today. Will be disappointing however if the shares end the month well down on prior to the results. And obviously well down on the year, as they started 2019 at about 36p.......

[macc1] 10/12/2019 20:35

CEO Scott maybury discussing PCF's results:

[graham1ty] 04/12/2019 21:51

Here is what he wrote:

“For a company earning ROE of 12.6% and with the potential to earn 15% and higher, I think this might possibly undervalue its prospects. I would say that the upper end of fair value is probably around 2x book balue, i.e. 47p per share.”

[topvest] 04/12/2019 21:02

That's not quite what he said. He said that upper valuation was 2x book or 47p versus exiting 1.5x book I believe. For me, the business is doing fairly well, but I'm probably a profit taker above 40p at this point in the cycle.

[graham1ty] 04/12/2019 12:54

Graham Neary positive on SCVR

hxxps://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-wed-4-dec-2019-lgrs-quiz-pcf-saa-534771?order=createdAt&sort=asc&mode=unthreaded

Suggests fair value might be 47p

[graham1ty] 04/12/2019 11:42

Just come off analyst call. Remarkably little new ( they presented recently in Manchester and at MELLO). Prudent lending, cheap borrowing from customer deposits, good systems. Tight controls. Very public KPIs ( I like a company where we can hold them to account against specific targets).

Growing strongly. Will just wait for Mr Market to catch up. As an aside, Scott has always said that some instos will just not look at a sub £100m market cap company. At 42p they get to £100m and a whole lot more potential institutions will look at it.

May not be until into next year, but 42p is not a million miles away. And PCF did hit 42p in the middle of last year

[cc2014] 04/12/2019 11:20

Looks to me like the traders/rampers sold out this morning in the first hour and will now move onto whatever target they have next.

Which does my head in really as looking at the figures in post 2715 what's not to like?

Happy they are gone. The market happily absorbed their shares within the hour telling me there are plenty of long term investors out there happy to absorb stock at these prices.

I know it's difficult to do nothing, but sometimes sitting in a share for years on end is the easiest way to make money. When you find a good one why sell it?


So, market cap of £90m. Forecast profit of £21m in 2022. I can't even be bothered to work out the P/E as it would be so low. Even if they miss the profit and only turn £15m (which given the directors always careful to underpromise seems about as likely as me bedding Taylor Swift) the P/E would still be crazy low.

Oh and of course by the time we get to 2022, the forecast will be another 2 years out and showing well my guess something in the range £30m-£40m

Here is the chart from 2009 after the crash. Once you've got a good share just stick with the trend and ignore the noise.




I suppose some people might see this post in itself as ramping but I write it more to remind myself not to go anywhere near the sell button as from time to time those thoughts cross my mind however hard I try to be rational about it.

[cheshire man] 04/12/2019 10:38

Thanks Graham,,,,excellent stuff ;-)