Paysafe Share Discussion Threads

[jarega85] 31/7/2017 10:25

It's creeping up.Just hope the TU has a little more meat to it, previous TU's tend to be brief with little detail

[lomax99] 31/7/2017 10:23

Sure would, provides a decent base to chase the gorilla (Paypal!)

[eh9] 31/7/2017 10:21

You have got to imagine that the wallets franchise and capability must be worth much more than 590 for a big brand seeing the direction of market travel

[lomax99] 31/7/2017 10:14

M&A teams must have been working overtime, what we really need is at least one more party to declare an interest and this will be at least north of £7, pending other developments.

[eh9] 31/7/2017 10:08

I think Barclays is spot on. Any offer would have to start with a 7. They can save face by ascribing the increased offer to the new acquisition and YTD strong trading

[uncle andy] 31/7/2017 10:05

I think you're being wildly optimistic, Wolfhound.

But I sincerely hope the current derisory offer is not accepted.

[wolfhound1] 31/7/2017 09:20

"Private equity is trying to take all the upside."

The sale of Asian Gateway is a condition of the deal so 850p it should be, then we need to see what the TU on 8th tells us about actual 2017 performance - I suspect 20%+ - and not 10% in forecasts , that in effect is equivalent of the US acquisition, now we are into the 1000p range from 850p - bidding war brings this closer to market levels of a PE 30 - 1200p range

And if Asia has truly been a concern but is sold then it should remove the percieved poison pill to takeover offers and we should see more appetite from others.

GLA

[eh9] 31/7/2017 08:42

Paysafe also announced a $470m cash acquisition of Merchants' Choice, a US in-store payment vendor. "Investors have been waiting for the divestment of the Asian Gateway and details on M&A - the details released today suggest that management has delivered on this but that private equity is now trying to get all the upside," said Barclays, which raised its target to 700p, based on the US acquisition boosting 2018 earnings by 11 per cent. A successful sale of the Asian Gateway business would lift the potential upside to 850p, Barclays added.

[lomax99] 31/7/2017 08:41

What share price range does a PE of 25 - 30 give us if we strip out the Asian network, and sell it at the suggested PE of 9?

[wolfhound1] 31/7/2017 08:36

Eh9 - does it explicitly state that in Barclays note - seems low based off PE. We are buying US business at what looks to be a PE 25 - yet it margin is only 15% compared to PAYS 30%. We know 590p is a PE of 15 so ramping it up to 25 or 30 to reflect market levels should put share price in 1000-1200 range before we get trading update of hopefully 20%+ organic growth on 8th.

[aspex] 31/7/2017 07:33

Buying above the prospective bid price happened on Friday.Someone is prepared to wager on a higher bid.

[eh9] 31/7/2017 06:53

Barclays value at 850p with Asia gateway disposal taking into account the new acquisition

[wolfhound1] 30/7/2017 23:32

Oohrogerpalmer - 700-800p is still too low IMHO

590 =PE 15
590×25÷15 = PE 25= 590×1.66=983p
590x30÷15 = PE 30= 590×2 = 1180p

So in cold light of day you can see 1000-1200p is actuaĺly where the market is - why would anyone take less than market value ?

[stuart37] 30/7/2017 23:17

Recent acquisition will help towards taking up some of the lost revenue - along with 20% plus organic growth (hopefully).

[nurdin] 30/7/2017 22:48

Dont forget we would lose a third of our revenues and similiar level of profit should we succeed in disposing off the Asia Gateway business.That will no doubt have to be considered in the rating equation post disposal...

[stuart37] 30/7/2017 22:15

I think 25 - 30 is achievable if Asian Gateway is sold but if not then may only achieve early 20's due to PAYS "unclean" gambling business. Let's hope it's getting sold right now, regardless of whether a deal is done.

[wolfhound1] 30/7/2017 21:11

BOD rejected other low ball bids and should have done same here - why ?

1. Worlpay is being acquired at PE30 - Pays at 15 - nuff said !

2. Market manipulationa of share price - per previous post - just too many coincidences - price was clearly manipulated and now we know why - attempt to facilitate a takeover on the cheap

So BOD would have been perfectly within their rights and those of shareholders to disregard any opening offers at under 800p IMHO - with a view to securing a sale at a more reflective PE of 25-30

[zcaprd7] 30/7/2017 19:59

Doesn't it have to be formal before they can reject it "out of hand" and why antagonise a large shareholder?

[oohrogerpalmer] 30/7/2017 18:37

Wolfhound ,
What you say is probably nearer the mark than current valuation, however the fact that the BODs have given airtime to it instead of rejecting it out of hand indicates they must be willing to do a deal at a price i would suspect nearer 700p than 800p.
Not too long to wait before something happens one way or another.

[wolfhound1] 30/7/2017 15:19

Zcaprd7 - had looked at them and my thoughts were:

* JL shares - market knew that date was coming for 3 yrs, that was an issue created and ultimatly resolved by JL - not his finest hour but you do have to say he did repay loan so market had misjudged his actions.

* buyback - last trade in early March- a positive step by bod IMO - however it did mean less was available to pay down debt - that said share price reacted better by buyback than if we had just paid down debt. The bigger issue IMHO is that the short distracted management from executing on M&A - I think the PE forms knew H2 2017 was time for payment sector consilidation - how convenient was it that a spurious shorting attack managed to twart Pays M&A ambitions ahead of a bid -huge !!

Had we not had a spurious short and JL had executed on M&A 6-8 months earlier I bet the opening salvo would have been 800p+ and it would have risen to probably 1000-1200p to close deal

We are where we are but lets assess the offer from the basis that without a spurious short ( intentional or otherwise) what value is fair value - I would say it is in the 1000-1200p range and that the 590p offer is derisory and should be rejected out of hand - green thumb if you agree :)

[zcaprd7] 30/7/2017 02:04

Wolf. You didn't incorporate the share buy back timings, nor the loaning out of the CEOs shares...

[deadend] 28/7/2017 19:38

Spot on Wolf,we are talking lumps of cash both short and long.

[slaccs] 28/7/2017 18:58

Have been in PAYS since 90p and have made some good money en route. Unfortunately, Wolfhound1 although your knowledge is far greater than mine I can't say I have the same confidence in JL and the board as you do. I completely agree, the whole sorry episode stinks but when you have had investments that turn out to be scams even though the company's are audited every year and quoted on bona fide exchanges, nothing surprises me anymore. Most of the financial bodies appear impotent to do anything, even if they wanted to.

[lomax99] 28/7/2017 18:37

Unless there is some sort of side deal with JL to compensate him, I'd still back him over the PE boys to engineer the 'right' outcome.....