Paysafe Share Discussion Threads

[eh9] 08/3/2017 06:43

Interestingly Stockopedia now showing as a stock rank of 85 today vs 49 yesterday now that 2016 numbers are loaded- I suspect all the value screens around the world will flag paysafe for investing now....

[geraldus] 08/3/2017 04:13

Deloitte in and KMPG out.Is that right?

[rhatton] 08/3/2017 01:37

Paysafe Group's (NVAFF) CEO Joel Leonoff on Full Year 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript $NVAFF


Mentions progressive dividend

[kuss1] 07/3/2017 23:53

China is the biggest market going forward first of all. Second you are making assumptions that the problem with Pays share price is all down to China, it isn't. Third you are focussing on on-line gambling but what about e-commerce. Forth an admission of wanting to withdraw from China would be an admission of irregularity, or at least that's how the market would interpret it. All just a lose, lose scenario.

And also an immediate loss of revenue and profit... ta boot.

Share price a generous £2 the next day imo...

[malcolmmm] 07/3/2017 23:32

There are 15 pages of the results transcript on 'Seeking Alpha', copyright only allows 400 words that can be copied but it looks likwe they will be declaring a dividend at some point

or indeed in due course a progressive dividend policy

[scothernman] 07/3/2017 21:44

Great analysis Wolf about giving up China business. At the CC they should have highlighted this bit......but we know the analysts have already done this in december 2016. PAYS share price will move up slowly from here and be around 440p by month end. My prediction. April or May the acquisition news will come to boost the true value.

[wolfhound1] 07/3/2017 21:41

Did anyone else pick up on the CFO's comments hinting that the strategy is to grow the US revenue streams ?

That will pile on more pressure for market to re-rate.

[malcolmmm] 07/3/2017 20:07

imo the share price would be around 500p if they paid a decent dividend.

The benefits to paying dividends are numerous. High dividend payouts attract a solid base of long-term investors in a company, which helps put a cap on share volatility. Both retail investors and fund managers love dividends for their income and compounding returns, so without further ado, here are 10 big-name stocks that should start paying a dividend.

[mannymif] 07/3/2017 19:26

Firstly,thanks for all the great input guys.

Just a thought and please don't shoot me down as I haven't really thought through all the legal implications, but if instead of paying out a dividend, PAYS gave shareholders a share in "bad co." which would own the Asia business that is burdening the share price, surely this would be a win all round.

[eh9] 07/3/2017 19:03

Paysafe enters value territoryDisparaging comments from Spotlight Research ahead of the introduction of potentially game-changing new European anti-money legislation has weighed on sentiment at Paysafe (PAYS) of late. The group's management team reckons it's well prepared for regulatory changes aimed at eliminating anonymous payments, although its guidance for low double-digit organic revenue growth in 2017 only served to heighten investor concerns.This underwhelming outlook took some of the shine off an impressive 21 per cent increase in total payment volumes in 2016. Admittedly, a significant amount of the $48bn (£39m) it handled through its processing, digital wallet and prepaid vouchers was generated by Skrill, the rival US group it acquired in August 2015. Skrill's introduction also explains the sharp changes to statutory figures (see table).Encouragingly, Paysafe's other businesses put in similarly good shifts. Organic revenues rose 21 per cent at constant currencies, reflecting growing usage from both existing and new merchants. Key to this success was the expansion of the group's distribution networks, technology enabling customers to expand into new territories and take advantage of different payment options and vibrant activity during the 2016 Uefa European Championship.Analysts at UBS forecast adjusted EPS of 51¢ in 2017, up from 43¢ in 2016.PAYSAFE (PAYS)ORD PRICE: 411p MARKET VALUE: £1.99bnTOUCH: 411-412p 12-MONTH HIGH: 474p LOW: 229pDIVIDEND YIELD: NIL PE RATIO: 17NET ASSET VALUE: 252¢* NET DEBT: 23%Year to 31 Dec Turnover ($bn) Pre-tax profit ($m) Earnings per share (¢) Dividend per share (¢)2012 0.18 3.6 1.0 nil2013 0.25 32.7 22.0 nil2014 0.37 59.0 21.0 nil2015 0.61 11.8 2.0 nil2016 1.00 168 29.0 nil% change +63 +1,323 +1,350 -Ex-div:Payment:*Includes intangible assets of $1.5bn, or 314¢ a share £1=$1.22IC VIEW:Paysafe's shares trade on 10 times forecast earnings. While the group's China earnings exposure means it typically trades at a discount to payment peers, we'd argue that this gap has now widened too far, creating an interesting buying opportunity for value investors. Buy.Last IC View: Hold, 310p, 15 Dec 2016visible-status-Standard story-url-Paysafe_Results_070317.xml

[haromaster] 07/3/2017 19:02

And what would happen to the share price if all/the majority of the gaming clients no longer used Skrill & Neteller by switching to another provider?

[wolfhound1] 07/3/2017 18:50

EH9 - what multiples are you applying ?

From telegraph;
"It is believed the business could be worth some $500m (£397m), and analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove estimate it has annual revenues of $180m-$195m." And that is probably optimistic - after all 4 months later and it is still not sold.

Sales have stalled - so clearly not a premium business otherwise it wouldn't be on the block.

PAYS earns 30% margin in a higher risk market and growing at 21% p.a. and trades on a PE of 10, I would venture you would pay a lower multiple for Sage

[wolfhound1] 07/3/2017 18:38

alas nurdin - it is reflective of an irrational market sentiment - which may result in PAYS getting taken out unless it is resolved.

[nurdin] 07/3/2017 18:31

Blimey wolf..thats a cracking answer !

[eh9] 07/3/2017 18:28

hxxp://www.sage.com/~/media/group/files/investors/sage-results-fy16-30-november-2016.pdf

pg 10 x 30% x 1.22$/£=EBITDA of $75m

[wolfhound1] 07/3/2017 18:28

Kuss1 - if you close down asia client then as a quid pro quo you need to remove the discount applied to PAYS - the reality is that it would increase the share price by over £2 to £6+

Peers trade at PE of 18
Pays trades at PE of 10.247

Bet365 client is approx 13% of Profits

2016 : $213m
2017E : $234m * 10.427 = MV $2.44bn ( £2bn)= Current MV

revised to exclude Asia $213mn *(1-.13)= $185mn
2017 :$185m * (1.1 organic growth) = $203.84m

MV at Peers multiple = $203 *18 = $ 3.67bn ( £3 bn) or £6+ per share

In reality you would package up bet365 client and sell it off (MBO) - probably for $0.5bn+ earn out over 3-5 yrs. That would be worth another $1 per share

[nurdin] 07/3/2017 17:57

Why kuss? On line gambling is illegal in China...

[wolfhound1] 07/3/2017 17:52

Are you sure EH9 ?

[kuss1] 07/3/2017 17:49

For pays to admit wanting to exit China would see the share price down at £2 in a blink of an eye...

[eh9] 07/3/2017 17:27

$70-100 ebitda is sage is it not?

[rhatton] 07/3/2017 17:22

Barclays quote 'We estimate organic growth of 22 per cent for the second half and the company disclosed 21 per cent for the full year, considerably ahead of the low double-digit expectation with which the market started the year.

“On our estimates, the stock delivers sector-beating earnings growth and trades at a more than 50 per cent discount to peers.'

[stockbob] 07/3/2017 17:21

could see a rise tomorrow hopefully ...must say this share can get extremely irritating .GLA

[f1araway] 07/3/2017 17:20

Don't it make your red eyes blue ......Er, no!

[nurdin] 07/3/2017 17:13

I suspect the market was disappointed at the CEOs comment about exposure to Asia.Asked whether he would consider exiting the market(given that the presence there is affecting their market rating) he replied that Asia represented a core and a profitable part of their business and he had no intentions at present to exit ...or words to that effect.

Would like to read the transcript if available,to see his exact words.

[wolfhound1] 07/3/2017 17:09

Given time Paul - it will deliver naturaly or it will be delivered (via a take-out)