Patisserie Share Discussion Threads

[blusteradjuster] 12/10/2018 10:20

Hpcg,

Yes, seems amazing the dots weren’t joined by someone. Perhaps it doesn’t happen often enough for such an approach to prove profitable.

Although when you’re shorting a £500m PLC...



“The other thing we can say is that there is clearly a gap in monitoring winding up petitions. If someone were doing this systematically there would have been a short attack.”

[sleepy] 12/10/2018 10:20

Even if Mr Marsh lives in Hertfordshire why would Hertfordshire police be involved?

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/10/2018 10:20

Assuming this was false accounting, Executive Chairman & 37% holder didn't have a clue how the business worked

[hvs] 12/10/2018 10:14

What about the options he cashed in ??? is that theft by false accounting ?

[hpcg] 12/10/2018 10:13

Allstar - people saying margins and profitability didn't seem right weren't invested, but nor was the chart conducive to shorting, nor in any case was it outrageously expensive, nor was there anything startling in the accounts, if anyone had got that far. For the PI there are so many possible investments that one doesn't spend any time at all on those which aren't of interest. I had dismissed it at listing as a roll-out with such a limited scope that it could never amount to much; one reason I think Whitbread would have no interest whatsoever. Others will have thought, low margin, complicated supply chain and complicated menu, no interest. Or high street footfall down, intense competition, not interested. So the hindsight is in discovering once attention has been drawn the number of stores and the reported operating margin. And indeed the market cap, I would have assumed sub £100 million if forced to guess.

The other thing we can say is that there is clearly a gap in monitoring winding up petitions. If someone were doing this systematically there would have been a short attack.

[profitaker] 12/10/2018 10:13

So not theft then - the money was never there in the first place.

[pugugly] 12/10/2018 10:12

Suggest anyone who can access the Times has a read of the Alistair Osborne column in Business Section - Very very cutting - One of the best hatchet jobs I have read for some time!!

[sweepie2] 12/10/2018 10:12

suspicion of fraud by false representation, strange part of the fraud act to arrest somebody on when dealing with suspected fraud in companies

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/10/2018 10:09

Marsh has been with CAKE since Johnson took control in 2006..... quite remarkable

[phowdo] 12/10/2018 10:06

Hertfordshire Police said: "A 44-year old man from St Albans has been arrested on suspicion of fraud by false representation. He has been released under investigation."

[snoopy12] 12/10/2018 10:02

Normally before the fall comes the pride here we see greed.

[pugugly] 12/10/2018 10:02

Also from the Times - May alreay have been posted ""experts now suggesting that the entire £28.8 million may have disappeared"

[edmondj] 12/10/2018 10:00

Patisserie Valerie has questions to answer

Simon Jack
BBC Business editor

Question 1. Will the company's biggest shareholder - serial entrepreneur and well-known smart cookie Luke Johnson - feel inclined to put his hand in his pocket to keep the business going?

The answer to that question may depend on the answer to...

Question 2. How quickly did the cash black hole open up?

Did it happen over the last three years, the last year, the last three months?

Cash black holes generally open up when the finance department loses control of the process of reconciling the cash in the bank to the accounts. If it built up quickly, it means the business is haemorrhaging cash and would make investors nervous of putting in any more money.

Question 3. What was the finance director doing?

Chris Marsh has worked with Luke Johnson for well over a decade. Current and former associates of his tell me he is a "quiet guy", "not ostentatious - no gold watch or fast car", "definitely Luke's man". He has been suspended while forensic accountants try to figure what happened here.

Question 4. Why didn't the auditors, Grant Thornton, raise the alarm?

They signed off on accounts dated September 2017, declaring the financial statements were in agreement with the accounting records. This will be a specific concern for Grant Thornton and another question mark raised over the quality of the whole accountancy profession after high-profile busts from the blue like Carillion.

The stores stay open for now. But with no cash, that cannot last, as suppliers will simply stop delivering. The future of the company, its 206 stores and its 2,000 employees is very much in the balance.

[topvest] 12/10/2018 10:00

Pre-pack coming in my view.

[sweepie2] 12/10/2018 09:59

Surprise surprise there

[pugugly] 12/10/2018 09:58

Times tarred with the same brush ? Got to protect the reputation of the Press!!!

[septimus quaid] 12/10/2018 09:56

According to today’s Times, City People section (hard copy), Mr Johnson will take a short break from his Sunday Times business column this weekend (by mutual agreement)

[monte1] 12/10/2018 09:53

1. Very Unlikely
2. (a) Unlikely
2. (b) Likely

Will not continue to trade in anything approaching its current form. Market value will be decimated.

AMIHO, dyor, nag.

[mrtenpercent] 12/10/2018 09:49

I predict 3 possible causes and conclusions to this awful tale:-

1. Cash stolen from company (manageable amount) > new cash injected > company continues to trade. If this is the conclusion then the company will be re-listed at a lower price per share and in the long term it will recover fully (but perhaps with a different chairman).

2(a). Accounts have not stated the true trading position of the company, which is however still profitable, albeit at a lower level > same conclusion as 1.

2(b). As for 2(a) except that the company is actually unprofitable in which case I wonder if it will survive.

I also predict that not much will happen to the auditors, Grant Thornton, who will press on regardless.

The "good" news is that we will know the conclusion very quickly. Most of the company's physical inputs are perishable and therefore stocks will be quite low. No supplier is going to send any new supplies until the situation is crystalised. I guess we will have some sort of an answer today. Will the company survive if the suppliers don't know where they stand after close of business tonight?

[careful] 12/10/2018 09:42

So sad to see smug self satisfied Luke come down to earth.
We all feel sorry for him.

[jonc] 12/10/2018 09:40

Oh and their ability ti plead not guilty in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary is staggering.

For example direct transfers of funds over a period of time from a charity account to his personal account.

Black and white.

In that case we as tax payers funded a report from a forensic accountant for the defence whose conclusion was that his report proved guilt to such an extent that it ought not be put before the judge for fear of incurring his wrath.

[phowdo] 12/10/2018 09:38

hvs, alas your 100s and 1000s are now just a bitter-sweet memory.

[monte1] 12/10/2018 09:38

#1271

They have also been misled.