Paros Share Discussion Threads

[longshanks] 18/2/2008 15:19

...and if they do get delisted whonosewhy ...I'll arrange to pay you £30 for your shares if you like.

[longshanks] 18/2/2008 15:11

You mean JakNife whonosewhy. He appears here too. Ironically, it actually cheers me up to see him and on a bad day like today for ParOS shares some cheer is to be welcomed.

He has his own agenda - and one can only guess at what it is. He may well have an alter-ego that is used to put a positive slant on other shares as a counterbalance to his acerbic persona. Either way - you would be as foolish to listen to him as to listen to anyone on an anonymous bulletin board. I suspect he may have a T+ sale that he is hoping will realise some profit when he buys back the shares.

On a separate note - I have seen the online limits suddenly expand again from 37.5K to 150K on both the bid and offer.

[dorset64] 18/2/2008 15:03

If the downturn as per the last few days carry's on, they will have to suspend the shares.

Dorset

[whonosewhy] 18/2/2008 14:33

poster on III seems pretty confident this will be delisted? anyone any thoughts?

[tobyjug] 18/2/2008 08:31

Some sad trades this am, oh well,those clawing in the fees will be happy.

[mod] 15/2/2008 20:00

Written these off now, not worth selling at these prices. Ho Hum.
mod.

[longshanks] 15/2/2008 12:49

Market value is roughly £500K. It may or may not be a bargain - I have no guarantees to give you. Fortune can favour the brave but - given the last trading statement - one might feel that one would be a fool to follow where others lead.

The patent has been granted in Europe - the U.S. patent is just an extension of this as will be the Japanese one. The market value of the IPR held on the books of ParOS was £3.5m prior to the patent being awarded. I think you should try and close your eyes and wait to see what happens.

[cemsmusic] 15/2/2008 12:38

longshanks, what is the market value of the company at these prices? Website indicates 472,950,195 shares in issue. Does that make it around £709,000? That it seems is about 5% of the admission value. This surely looks like a bargain at the moment. I am new to all this and losing 50% of an investment in less than a month is bit of a shock really. Hope patents (and to be granted ones)will help the value in the long run.

[longshanks] 15/2/2008 11:18

Its nice to know the market makers are watching ;)

[longshanks] 15/2/2008 11:00

I think you have your facts wrong. You may be basing your opinion on how share trades are presented rather than what the actual buying/selling price has been.

Take yesterday - I know that the 1m trade shown as a sale was a buy. The current active spread is 0.009 to 0.0124 - not 0.011 to 0.015 as indicated. Make of this what you may.

The true figures from October 2007 to the current time - by my account - show the Market Makers as being short of almost 4m shares. If you go back to March last year however this reduces slightly to show them being roughly 3.8m shares short...i.e. the books look roughly balanced at the moment.

For interest the figures from (and including 25th January) show net buys of roughly 500K - but this is meaningless as it is sentiment rather than book balancing that is driving the price right now.

Patience is one thing - but really you shouldn't put any money into AIM if you want to avoid volatility and illiquid trading. I am still more than happy to build up my stake. I am aware that it will be a white knuckle ride but I have confidence in the technology and at this price the potential rewards are sufficient reason for me.

[cemsmusic] 15/2/2008 10:38

I am afraid since 25th January there have been 6,031,244 sells versus 200,000 buys. I am still a holder of these but patience is running out.

[longshanks] 13/2/2008 16:43

Good to see you sticking around TiredOldBroker. You have good solid reasons for being pessimistic and I have some rather less solid ones for remaining confident.

I have entered into ParOS with my eyes wide open so to speak and from what and whom I know have some confidence to do so. I haven't risked my entire shirt on the show and have some big solid gains elsewhere to offset if I should lose here - but I feel that your analysis is a little short of what will be the eventual mark. Time will tell.

[tobyjug] 13/2/2008 16:24

T old b,looks like you made up somebodys mind up for them.

[tiredoldbroker] 13/2/2008 16:02

longshanks, I hope you won't mind me chipping in here - I think you'll agree that I gave my reasons for not liking this share a long time back (including my opinion that they'd run out of cash before commercialising the technology), and since then I've left it alone, as I didn't feel I had anything new to add.

I do think you've been in some unreliable company here, and that there have been people who have simply ramped the stock, in the hope of making a couple of hundred quid - and their efforts, and the number of their posts, have been out of all proportion to the small amount of dishonest profit they hoped to make. There never has been a secret buyer, trying to build up a major stake, notwithstanding dozens of claims that a buyer was there, and despite the fact that no one person could have been buying without having to declare a stake long ago.

I really don't think there is anything to be optimistic about at this point. Paros is no more than a forced seller of only partially patented technology, and a forced seller rarely if ever gets a fair price for whatever asset they are selling. Indeed, potential buyers might simply let the company go bust and then swoop on the administrators, or even let the company be wound up, as the patents might then become quite worthless with the technology passing into the public domain.

I don't think the company has behaved particularly well, discussing fundraising for 5 months without any public disclosure, while its finances headed for crisis, and allowing investors to buy and sell unaware of the facts, and I would be sceptical of believing any encouraging remarks which then came from the company.

My best guess from this point would be that PARO will survive as a quoted shell with little or no assets, with a share price stuck at a tiny fraction of a penny, until the quote is suspended and the stock is delisted 6 months after that, and that the remaining cash will go on regulatory fees and directors' expenses, I certainly don't see that there is any reason to pile in and buy even more stock, and you can't really compare this to a successful investment in a private company - apart from anything else, a successful business has access to enough money to commercialise its work, which I don't think PARO ever had.

[longshanks] 13/2/2008 10:28

For your benefit wkw although I really think you need to think a little more out of the box...

Here is an extract of some communications I had with Mr McHugh a while ago...


I was a surprised initially when Imperial Innovations first sold some of
their holding after the news was released that we had secured the European
Patent at the end of October. I did not know in advance that they were
planning to do this. I have of course spoken to the senior team at Imperial
Innovations and now know;
- they did not let me know of the sale in advance as they do not want to be
considered an 'insider' i.e. they want to able to trade freely in our
shares;
- they were approached by a market maker to see if they wanted to sell. It
was not their initiative;
- when we listed on AIM, Imperial Innovations had a carve out, as part of
the Concert Party, to sell their shares after one year without reference to
our Nomad. This is because they consider that their work is done and ParOS
as a spun out company is now part of their investment portfolio;
- Imperial Innovations is about investing in early stage technology at
Imperial College and they continue to do this. Selling some ParOS shares
enables them to continue this early stage work. From our perspective they
really have don't have anything more to offer ParOS;
- We still have in place an important Pipeline Agreement with Imperial
College which gives ParOS preferential access to relevant technology
developed in the College. This is what is important to ParOS. (In fact many
of the shares that Imperial Innovations hold were given to them in exchange
for this Pipeline Agreement).
- As far as I know Imperial Innovations may continue to sell their holdings
(though never down to 0%) when approached by Market Makers at a good price
for them. They have not lost any confidence in ParOS it is just that they
acquired their shares largely in exchange for services and the Pipeline
Agreement so they can sell today at a profit;


You can choose to interpret things whichever way you want but as far as I am concerned this picture of events tallies with the way that IVO released stock to the market.

That is an end to the discussion as far as I am concerned. I will probably drop out of this board for a while and let it stew...the locusts will be arriving shortly.

[whonosewhy] 13/2/2008 10:15

"they still own 21m shares - which is still quite significant"

At current prices that is about £25k.

I have been following this board since around Novemeber time and have seen the regular reports of IVO's gradual reduction in their holding.

I also read the comments that were attributed to Mr McHugh that IVO had been approached for the shares by the market.

What we did not see was any other large investor that has built a large enough stake to warrant it being reported on the back of that.

So however you look at it IVO as a major player in the company would have been involved in any discussions which we are now told were going on 5 months ago about the future cashflow of the company and whether they could achieve the stated stratgey.

Following that IVO, I imagine, gleefully took the cash from selling most of their shares leaving them with a token gesture amount at risk.

What happens now will be the result of the strategic review. I was fairly convinced that at some point this company would run out of money and by saying they are trying to protect remaining cash resources indicates they still have some cash and they are now cutting costs.

I repeat that I still believe the technology and the Patents on it are valuable and a positive spin could be that this strategic review is to change emphasis and get commercial activity going now that the Patents are sorted out.

Alternatively they could sell the technology which could prove to be more valuable than the current share price.

Either way they are stating they need cash or need to control cash or they will not be able to meet their stated objective.

Unless of course IVO now use their gains from selling out at a higher price to " buy back in" with a placing to provide essential cash?

Maybe they just wanted a lower price to place at?

[longshanks] 13/2/2008 10:09

...just waiting for M&C to turn up and we'll have the full compliment...although I don't think H&B make a market for PARO.

Whilst delisting is a real possibility and the thought - shock of horrors - that we won't be able to trade these shares on AIM has to be considered. The only people that would think such an event makes them worthless would be a market maker.

Far from this being the case, I have successfully invested in private companies in the past to make substantial (10x) gains. In many ways it makes life easier because the board is able to be that much more open and discuss all of their thoughts.

If anyone on this board doesn't understand or value the technology at the heart of ParOS - do what JakNife and 8T suggest and sell into any strength over the next few weeks. Once I have confirmation from my sources I will probably be buying a fair few more of these to give you such an opportunity.

[longshanks] 13/2/2008 10:00

ah - JakNife is back.

Best buy signal I ever had with QTI.

[8trader] 13/2/2008 09:56

You can sell much online hence the discounted sale.

You lot never learn do you, just what do you want the company
to do to make you realise it's a very poor investment !

Even after yet another warning you go and buy more before it
drops again.

[silveraw] 13/2/2008 09:54

180k at .10 how desperate is that?

[silveraw] 13/2/2008 09:28

Well I did have the temerity to come on here and say that this is a dog of a share and was getting out, which I did in 2 lots. However even I can see value in the company at the current share price The Patents that they hold plus the pending patent for japan plus the original control technology developed by the company will produce the orders they seek in the mid to long term. Taking the company by the scruff of the neck and shaking out the loss making bits is a wise move to conserve cash until either the orders start to flow or they sell out the company and the patents, either way at the current share price it appears to be well worth a new punt so I am back in and will buy more on any drop.

[whonosewhy] 13/2/2008 09:19

ok longshanks I've read it carefully several times now. I am just not sure what 'twist' yourself and tobyjug are suggesting.

You appear to be suggesting that there is some sort of hidden message but the only hidden message I can see is that they have been aware of a potential problem for 5 months.

They have been discussing this problem with people for 5 months. Imperial Innovations who were a major shareholder would presumably have been one of the investors being spoken to.

Instead of offering more support they in fact went the opposite way and started offloading shares at a rate of knots.

Now they have reduced their holding significantly we get an announcement that a strategic review is needed to try and decide a way forward having failed to raise funds from investors.



In honesty I have said before that I bought this as a punt and I am prepared to sit and wait and see what happens it just seems my timing was terrible because I bought at the top of the ramping that went on at the time of the patent announcement and now unbeknown to me the company was also struggling for cash and struggling to get support from major investors.

So I guess what I am saying is that I cannot see a positive contained within that trading comment but you seem to still be positive and are suggesting that perhaps I am lacking foresight.

Just wondered if you could give me any clues?