Pantheon Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 27/1/2022 09:29

CHC - can't compare like with like; however 2 things:

# Read the Investment Week article on PE over on the PE thread

# Don't forget BPET - looks to be the cheapest on pure NAV discount; though that won't be confirmed until we see their Q4'21 NAV with their end March Finals statement

[starpukka] 26/1/2022 21:49

Perhaps we've bottomed here.

[chc15] 24/1/2022 09:53

I have created a basket pie of PIN, HGT, NBPE and HVPE, am going to start adding, topping up on dips.

[skyship] 24/1/2022 08:00

Slightly better than I'd expected.

[donald pond] 24/1/2022 07:58

I think it's all about doubt over valuation models, though HVPE have said their average uplift on divestments was 130% above NAV. But there have been so many tech IPOs that have fallen it's not clear that it will be easy to float stuff at current valuations.While PE might fall further I'm more inclined to see pullbacks as an opportunity to buy though. As an asset class it isn't going away.

[rcturner2] 21/1/2022 09:19

PIN's biggest holding at +8% is Insight Partners, which is itself a PE company that invests in tech/software/internet so may be part of the reason for the weakness.

[skyship] 21/1/2022 08:48

Strewth - make that a 25% discount. Don't fully comprehend this fall beyond market weakness as PIN seems to be an outlier versus its peers at the moment. I've added at 309p.

[skyship] 19/1/2022 09:01

Encouraging Dec. NAV from HVPE today. So the two so far declared are:

# HVPE: In $ - Up 2.4%. In £ - Up 0.61%

# NBPE: In $ - Dn 1.9%. In £ - Dn 4.1%

PIN usually declares c26th; but was very late with the Nov. declaration - so who knows!

PIN has a small holding in the death-spiral Chewy; thankfully small. Still I'm assuming we'll see something like a 2% decline in GBP terms from 421.1p to, say, 412.7p...which means a 22.5% discount @ 320p.

(Chewy holding: 1.3% in May'21; now just c1%)

[apple53] 18/1/2022 20:45

I topped up both on city index and in the longer term portfolios.

[starpukka] 18/1/2022 13:08

Just topped up @ 318.64

[apple53] 15/1/2022 22:29

I use City Index for Spreads and (a few) CFDs. Pantheon International wasn't tradeable, so I asked for it and it is now visible.
I will try to trade on Monday (I already have a full long term position plus no spare cash in ISAs etc.).
The margin is somewhat high at 15%, vs 10% for HVPE, but not shockingly so.

[spangle93] 13/1/2022 12:04

8 minute Q&A video with Hardman's Analyst for PIN



Mark talks us through his recent note entitled 'Primary platform + active management = value add', explains what he means by platform strength and the importance of relationships with PE managers, investment expertise and active management and any risks involved.

edit, my eyes glazed over at about 5.1/2 minutes. I'm clearly someone who should not be investing in it ;-)

[cwa1] 11/1/2022 13:24

FWIW iDealing are quoting prices with SD added on top at the moment, so you might have been lucky!

[spittingbarrel] 11/1/2022 12:36

Strangely enough iDealing didn't charge me stamp duty, but I'm sure they'll correct the error before the day is out.

[skyship] 11/1/2022 12:19

Of course the Dec'21 NAV will have to absorb a c2% currency hit due to the strong GBP; but I reckon at the moment still good value versus peers.

[skyship] 11/1/2022 12:07

Likewise - pd 331p with a CFD - avoids that pesky Stamp Duty!

[spittingbarrel] 11/1/2022 11:33

Agreed, I've just bought back in.

[skyship] 11/1/2022 10:12

PIN look a bit of an anomaly today - down @ 333p for a 20.9% discount. Most peers sub the 20% level, some very much so...

[apple53] 07/1/2022 09:49

Thanks for the comments Spangle.

I had lost track of the general PE thread - I don't think I ever posted so I'm not informed about updates. I wanted to post the above spiel there and you've saved me looking for it.

My preference has recently been to buy growth plus discount rather than discount OR growth. I have made a mistake in the past of going for discount without really checking on growth. Obviously there is a massive problem identifying whether the growth is sustainable. They say a 7 year record is required before you can be 90%+ sure that growth is due to manager(s) rather than luck. Add to that the massive growth (in the style-sense) vs value outperformance of the past x years and it's a minefield.

So SMT is an example where I refused to buy because I always thought tech overvalued (though I had a lot hidden in my pension anyway) which was obviously a big mistake for years. If you think tech will bounce from here it seems like a good way to play (esp if you also think Moderna will bounce). And the premium has come down. I would probably buy if it got so disliked (like ARK at the mo) that a discount opened.

In a way I have owned Herald (at one point a great deal) as a SMT-light combination of high growth plus discount, and then traded it, selling when the discount dropped to 5ish. This is an example of a name where the NAV growth has slowed, though less of a rollercoaster than SMT.

SLPE is an example of something (like NBPE and BPET) I might have known more about if I'd been on the general PE thread. Completely missed it so I had my eggs in too few baskets. I should check the valuation policy and add it to my list.

Earlier this year, the PE sector really was a slam dunk, and as I sold a lot of bank stocks and other recovery plays (all too early, mind), I put a chunk into NASCIT, HVPE and later Pantheon. Though also I topped up Wendel (ouch) and TFG (bigger ouch), with the latter being super-defensive.

PE was a (relative) slam dunk since the vaccines, as the valuation policies have meant stated NAVs have lagged real-time massively, sometimes 10-15 percentage points, meaning up to 50% upside to real-time NAV. You are right that both NAV growth and real discount shrinkage have been strong the last 6 months. So then I would stick with those that I have more longer term faith in (eg HVPE and NASCIT over Caledonia), nuanced by those with the bigger discounts, preferably along with buybacks or other catalysts. And keep trading Herald!

On your specific question: arguably, the NAV lag now can work against the tech-rich PEs. The internet stock index has massively underperformed, along with unprofitable tech, so if these types of names are the right comparative for tech PE (rather than FAANGS etc.), then you could be right that this is the time to rebalance. Do we have an idea about which names this applies to? Yes Pantheon has benefited from tech, but what type and how much? Who are the 'value' plays? Wendel is an obvious name here, and is buying its stock, but in a sense it's just a very cheap way to buy Bureau Veritas. TFG also stands out as a likely relative beneficiary from rising rates and/or falling markets, despite some PE exposure. I also need to do more work on Pershing.

Biotech specifically has had a torrid time, and I would hope that's already built into NAVs, and I actually think there is scope for a bounce or at least for outperformance vs other tech. I would love to see a discount open up for Biotech growth trust, for example.

Anyway, apologies that most of this is off (Pantheon) topic, but this thread is not too busy and maybe some Pantheon-specific followers are interested in hearing about other names.

[spangle93] 07/1/2022 08:34

Apple53

I guess you found the main thread for general PE discussions:


I'm still very much of a learner when it comes to how to distinguish different trusts' offerings. It's also a bit scary jumping on a relentless rise, even if NAV's are rising too. I'd like to expand, but none looks a bargain unless, from time to time, you're a trader. I'd also noted the BPET presentation date

So I only hold PIN, SLPE and NBPE as a spread of different ones - region / dividend / vehicle.

SMT seems to be on a correction at the moment, with the suggestion of a link to higher interest rates adversely affecting growth companies. Do you see this working through to PE, given the lag in valuations of these vehicles.

[apple53] 06/1/2022 23:01

So I've redone my calcs. From the smallest to the largest upside to my estimate of real-time NAV:
Oakley, c.20%, but if their valuations are crazily conservative, who knows......
HVPE, Pantheon and Caledonia c.24-25%. Valuations still lagging real time so discounts understated. Missed my chance to sell some Caledonia on Tuesday 3+% higher.
BPET and NASCIT c.28-29%. BPET have an investor presentation on the 13th, which I will try to listen to, while Mills of NASCIT recently did a long youtube interview on his favourites (and interviewer failed to ask about Renalytix). BPET estimate is especially dubious given how rarely it reports.
NBPE c. 32%. I own none and will look to buy if I can raise some cash.
Pershing c.43%. I guess I should buy some more after the recent correction. Weekly NAV to be reported tomorrow.
IP Group and SUPP c.46%. Hmmm.
Wendel 60+%. Happy to discuss. Ignored by advfn posters.

My biggest holdings are NASCIT and IP Group among this lot. Not a great time to switch out of either.

[apple53] 06/1/2022 21:28

Thanks for flagging all this Spangle.
As I have posted in other Trust threads, I keep finding the quality names offering around 30% upside to "real-time NAV", so I've not had much excuse to switch between them. My new buying has been mostly in IP Group and a little in SUPP as the ONT impact has not been reflected.

I looked at a couple of Skyship's names and couldn't buy JPEL on ii, while BPET and NBPE were showing similar upsides to my existing holdings in HVPE, Pantheon, NASCIT, Caledonia and Oakley. NASCIT's fall didn't create a buying opportunity since it was in line with the Renalytix hit, sadly.

I will try to redo my spreadsheet now and post again shortly.

On the NAV, Pantheon is ahead of my expectations. I had 422p down as my estimate for real-time NAV in the middle of December, with the fx gains supplemented by the fact that a chunk of valuations were end June. Moving to end September appears to have helped, but global markets are up (even after today's hit) by 6% since end September, so although there is now an fx hit to consider, I would suggest a realtime NAV of 430-440.

[spangle93] 07/12/2021 07:45

New research note on PIN issued by Hardman