Pensana Share Discussion Threads

[czar] 04/8/2020 19:05

ok guys what is this company worth? What is a fair estimate of the share price for this time next year if all goes to plan?

[hazl] 04/8/2020 16:46

As expected doesn't need a lot of boosting really.

[chinasyndrome] 04/8/2020 07:48

OK Numbers crunched: re-post from HC

As per previous exercises, Based on the weathered SG of 1.42 on a 50x50m grid, omitting the two NR holes outside of the deposits envelope.
Note 50x50 is for Reserve grade spacing, holes outside of the Pit (Resource grade) more probably have a 50x100 grid, also a substantial proportion of these are deep holes into fresh roch with a higher SG; So the tonnage I have calculated is certainly an underestimate.

9.4 Mt at an average grade 2.69% TRE and 0.57% NdPr. Which is smack in line with previous results. So several more years mining and further conformation as to the consistency of the Resource as a whole.

Strip ratio for this batch increased slightly to 1:1.28 which is understandable as there are a lot of deeper 'exploratory' holes in this batch.

Now expecting another good night in Europe

[hazl] 04/8/2020 07:15

Two announcements in short succession.


'Final drill results include further high-grade intersections in fresh rock below pit design

Pensana Rare Earths Plc (LSE: PRE, ASX: PM8) is pleased to report the final assay results from the last 86 holes of the 8,000 metre drill programme completed at the Longonjo NdPr Project in Angola.

The programme is in support of a Bankable Feasibility Study which is due to be reported in mid-October. '

[chinasyndrome] 04/8/2020 03:06

Another good set of Drilling results, This Longonjo Resource is fast approaching "Biggest in the World" status. It will certainly be able to keep up supply for a major (Stage 2) plant upgrade in a couple of years time.

[herlat1] 03/8/2020 12:55

Seriously good volume on ASX and LSE. Increasing volumes can sometimes preceded big price moves. Very interesting times ahead for PRE.

[hazl] 03/8/2020 08:17

Lovely 'w' on chart.

[chinasyndrome] 03/8/2020 04:46

For far too long Pensana has been held back from reaching its 'Fair Value' by the Australian DT's. However as a consequence of the London listing, the Company now has a new and greatly expanded Investor base. Prior to and for a short time following the LSE, we saw a number of smart brokers out on ASX fishing trips, accumulating stock in order to make a quick 10% on the LSE/ASX differential. Last Friday we saw Parity for the first time as UK Investors have almost adsorbed those Broker stockpiles. The fishing trips might continue for a while, but the days of Oz DT's selling short to intimidate/panic Sellers into dumping are numbered. Finally we have real competition and anybody offering cheap shares will be quickly pounced upon.

I think, we are now going to experience a period of catch up; Shortly after the PFS a number of analysts were valuing us at 46-80c (25-44p). Given the very positive progress that our Management has achieved over the last Quarter, I would not be surprised to hear that our FV is now in the 0.75-$1 (41-54p) range ~ It is only a matter of time before our share price catches up,

For those looking for a safe Haven in troubled times, Smart money can now see that Covid has had very little impact on Pensana's ability to continue to operate and therefore there is very real potential for strong and continued growth over the next twelve months.

So if you want to be involved in the Re-rate that is going to come with production, I suggest you get on board before the end of Q3 2021.
But if you also want to take advantage of the climb to Fair Value, call your Broker this week.

[chinasyndrome] 31/7/2020 08:15

A solid second Quarter

Given the constraints that Covid might have imposed, it would be hard to find any Company that has achieved so much during this period.

Full marks to our Employees, Management and our Angolan hosts, for putting in a solid performance in trying times, to produce an outstanding set of results.

What is most encouraging is that Management has now demonstrated that Covid, has had little to no effect on the Companies ability to continue operations ~ everything is now in place, allowing Pensana to Fast Track its pursuit of bringing Longonjo into production before the end of 2021.

Good to see that we are keeping an open mind and that we are not getting involved by committing to supplying just one customer.

[hazl] 31/7/2020 07:12

RNS. Quarterly activities.

[hazl] 29/7/2020 09:16

Chairman Paul Atherley commented:

"We are very pleased with the appointment of SI Capital and to have the opportunity to present the Pensana investment case to their high net worth clients who are continuing to increase their holdings in the Company."

[chinasyndrome] 27/7/2020 08:50

More "Proof" that we have an exceptional BOD/Management team.

Appointing a highly experienced "Owner's Representative" at this early stage will go a long way to eliminate Design stuff ups, which are inevitable when theoretical engineers design anything. I don't care how good the drawing office boys are, unless they have had extensive operational experience they WILL always make oversights. As I have said previously, I have managed several Builds in my past positions ~ most designed by Tier 1 companies, without exception all had several "Operational" faults that required expensive remediation before the plant could achieve nameplate production.

It is far cheaper to identify and eliminate problems early in the Design stage. If left too late problems will become "Variations" for which the Designer will charge the Owner an arm and leg to remediate ! Paradigm will be looking at things like: Optimal bin, conveyor, pump and pipe capacities, spare parts commonality, access clearances for Crane-age, maintenance and cleaning; ease and safety of maintenance etc etc. Then if their contract continues thru onto construction, they will be ensuring that all materials are fit for purpose, concrete is poured to specification, steal work is bolted correctly and operating manuals make sense, if it is a Turn-key (builder has to guarantee it works) operation, Paradigm will also supervise the initial start up and running in before accepting the hand-over to Pensana. It is a big job, but if done correctly it will save Pensana considerable cost, down time and head-aches in the future.

Looking at Paradigm's past 15 years of experience in building mine plants, I think that they should be more than capable of avoiding most of the traps and pit-falls commonly found when constructing a Processing plant. Lastly they have "Local" knowledge, invaluable once the training of the operators and supervisors commences.

[rvsy2] 27/7/2020 08:05

I am very encouraged by today's RNS.

The early appointment of an owners representative and statement that the updated mineral resource estimate is due in September and intends to proceed forthwith on the Front End Engineering Design shows that the company has its foot on the gas.

I spent 35 years on miming projects and know SRK Consulting and Snowden as gold standard providers of mining technical services and open pit optimisation and design respectively.

[oapknob1] 26/7/2020 18:13

See post 108 below

[hazl] 26/7/2020 08:36

Good to have some varied posts.

[oapknob1] 25/7/2020 19:43

Chairman Paul Atherley said the miner planned to raise between $30-$50 million of working capital from the banks while funds would be tapped for about $25 million in equity for the construction of the mine.

[rvsy2] 24/7/2020 12:23

Please note Correction :


At a share price of 40p this means issuing 60 million shares giving a total of 250 million shares in issue.

[rvsy2] 24/7/2020 12:21

The London listing prospectus showed a project payback of 13 months for the project base case.

With a capex of US$ 200 million this implies a pre tax revenue of US$ 185 million per annum ( £ 148 million per annum).

Assume that US $ 30 million ( £ 24 million ) equity has to be raised by a share placing during 2021.

At a share price of 40p this means issuing 80 million shares giving a total of 250 million shares in issue.

With pre tax earnings of £ 148 million per annum this results in an earnings per share of around 60p.

At a p/e ratio of 10 this would imply a potential share price of around 600p.

The above analysis is simplistic as it has ignored interest payments and tax but in my opinion it demonstrates that the project is very robust and is a potential 10 - 20 bagger.

[oapknob1] 23/7/2020 23:01

£25,000,000 equity funding at 20p IF done as a placing is potentially 125,000,000 shares to be issued.

[hazl] 23/7/2020 13:54

think of the markets for the rare earths.

[chinasyndrome] 23/7/2020 11:33

My apologies, I omitted to mention that the Angolan Government is not only strongly supportive, but have so much faith in Longonjo that they are prepared to directly invest in Pensana's share Registry through their Sovereign Wealth Fund. Once the mine starts to generate revenue Angola and its citizens will be by far the biggest beneficiary.

Add to that all of those the benefits that will flow directly to the local community thru: employment, road upgrades, power and water reticulation, training and construction. In Australia a general rule of thumb is that for every dollar spent in wages there is a 7:1 flow on into support services from the local community.

[hazl] 22/7/2020 08:29

Indeed.
Companies like this reflect the future.
Share prices anticipate future growth.

A great post.Thank you.