 The Revenge of the Gold Bugs.
Clint Siegner
March 3rd, 2025
There aren’t too many upsides to the widespread loss in confidence currently underway. It would be far better if major institutions were trustworthy, competent, and efficiently run. But fixing these institutions first requires recognition of the problems.
The people who spent all of their time marginalizing gold bugs as nutjobs and conspiracy theorists are starting to find themselves out on the fringe.
It suddenly makes sense to vast swathes of Americans to question whether long-held assumptions are true. It's the people who implicitly trust what they have been told by bureaucrats and bankers who look a little silly.
The veil is slipping. Gold and silver investors should be ready for some interesting revelations and, perhaps, changes in the metals markets.
They should also beware of "experts" still clinging to conventional wisdom. Now is the time for questions, not blind trust.
The following assumptions are foolish. Those who defend them are naive at best, or they may have some stake in preserving the status quo.
FOOLISH ASSUMPTION #1 – There are no problems with decades-old audits of the U.S. gold reserves, including the bars in Fort Knox, and it’s unreasonable to ask for a new audit that also examines encumbrances.
The best reason to do a comprehensive audit of U.S. gold is that bureaucrats desperately want to avoid it. They resist all efforts for a new inventory and assay of each and every bar.
Jan Nieuwenhuijs makes the case as to why prior accounting relating to U.S. gold is misleading, problematic, and incomplete. Readers who prefer a video can find that here.
There are three possibilities with regards to the U.S. gold reserves. The worst case is that some of the gold is missing.
Another possibility is that the U.S. gold has been leased, or otherwise encumbered and it is no longer 100% available to the U.S. Treasury.
The best case is the gold is all there and it is unencumbered, but much of it is in the form of coin melt (90% pure) bars, which are illiquid (as the bullion markets require much higher purity).
Anyone who still trusts what officials have told them and ridicules the idea of a thorough audit, in this day and age, is a moron. It is high time to go through the gold with a fine-toothed comb. Audits are never “one and done” anyway.
FOOLISH ASSUMPTION #2 – Price manipulation is not a problem in the metals markets.
A number of major bullion banks, including JPMorgan Chase, pleaded guilty to widespread price rigging not long ago. The Department of Justice nailed them, even though the CFTC had not.
There are thousands of documents, chat logs, and voice recordings featuring traders colluding with their peers at other banks to manipulate prices and stick it to their own clients.
That was the moment it became completely untenable for anyone to assert the gold and silver markets are free and fair. The “conspiracy theory” is now officially a conspiracy fact.
A valid question to examine is whether the manipulation that occurs is merely situational or systemic – and who is involved.
Further, it is more than a little naive to believe compromised federal regulators and DOJ officials were either willing or able to root out this corruption among the most powerful and well-connected banks in the world.
A more informed view is that it can be hard to get a fair shake when playing in the highly leveraged casino that is the futures market.
FOOLISH ASSUMPTION #3 – The Federal Reserve must maintain its independence.
Americans have been told for more than 100 years it is vital for our central bank to operate on its own. We must somehow trust that Fed officials have the best interests of Americans at heart.
This despite clear evidence the Fed’s true mandate is to take care of the Wall Street banks that literally own the Federal Reserve. This includes the massive bank bailouts in 2008, which benefitted executives displaying horrific judgement and in some cases perpetrated fraud.
It’s highly questionable to insist there is wisdom in an “independent” (read unaccountable) Fed. Those claiming the central bank’s token efforts at transparency are adequate either aren’t serious or aren’t honest. They should read “End the Fed” by Ron Paul.
The truth is that the Fed is a black box funneling trillions of dollars around. Who still thinks that is a good idea?
Clint Siegner |
NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR HOLDINGS (to be sent to the relevant issuer and to the FCA in Microsoft Word format if possible)
PUBLIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION SOC LIMITED
12.393% 251 493 551 Shares held.
Position of previous notification (if applicable) 9.980% |
Damn !!The US markets pre-selling already:( |
Is this one of those moments shorts are being closed??? |
JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) –
The London- and Johannesburg-listed Pan African Resources is able to operate and to grow in South Africa – “and do so very successfully”, an upbeat CEO Cobus Loots stated emphatically on Wednesday when he reported that a full feasibility study on the Soweto Cluster tailings storage facilities (TFSs) is expected to be completed by September to extend still further the life of the below-budget, ahead-of-schedule Mogale Tailings Retreatment (MTR) operation, which is thriving west of Johannesburg.
“We’re growing profitable production very materially. We expect to be well north of 200 000 oz of annual production in 2025,” Loots said of Pan African as a whole during the interim results presentation covered by Mining Weekly. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.)
Amid the stunning below-two-year payback of the MTR project and an under-three-year expected payback of the Tennant Consolidated Mining Group (TCMG) gold/copper project – which Pan African Tennant Mining Operations MD Peter Main described as “a gamechanger” – it was made patently clear that there is no chance that the current restructuring of the Sheba mine in Barberton will result in closure.
The full Soweto Cluster feasibility study is focusing on the possibility of constructing a new processing facility, which would be a standalone operation, also producing about 50 000 oz/y, as is the case with the highly profitable MTR, where studies could result in that output being lifted to 60 000 oz/y in the next year.
It is envisaged that this could be achieved through installing additional reactors to further improve recoveries. It could involve the addition of two carbon-in-leach (CIL) tanks to increase throughput to a million tonnes a month from 800 000 t a month.
Being studied, too, is the inclusion of a hard rock crushing circuit enabling the processing of nearby remnant hard rock resources.
The potential inclusion of additional proximal TSF resources that add still further the Soweto project’s life-of-mine is also under scrutiny.
Impressively under way are renewable-energy initiatives to provide an estimated 100 MW of decarbonised power by 2030.
Energy plants at Fairview and Evander Phase 1 are generating some 21 GWh of solar power, which realises a half-year financial saving of $2.1-million and cuts out 19 000 t of Scope 2 emissions.
A feasibility study has been completed for yet another solar renewable energy plant, this time one of 20 MW, with applications for environmental authorisations and permitting in progress.
In addition, several energy efficiency optimisation projects have been embarked upon at operations, realising $0.3-million in half-year savings and avoiding 3 000 t of emissions.
Evander's water treatment plant will be expanded to supply up to 5.5 ML/d from the current 3 ML/d, with construction work to expand the plant commencing during 2025.
Rehabilitation at MTR's Mogale and Soweto sites is already in progress, with several wetlands restored.
The group is on target to rehabilitate 85 ha for financial year (FY) 2025 and closure liabilities are materially funded, with a relatively modest shortfall of $5.2-million related to the MTR closure.
At TCMG Down Under, construction of the Nobles Gold CIL processing plant is ahead of schedule and within budget, with first gold now expected in the last quarter of FY 2025.
Despite all the capital that Pan African has invested, the strongly advancing company remains able to maintain sector-leading dividend payouts to shareholders and is considering an interim dividend in the next year amid being able to grow production by almost 50% in a short space of time.
“What’s very helpful is that our assets have extended lives. We don’t have to go and acquire more assets to maintain and grow production, and we’ve pretty much spent all of our significant growth capital,” said Loots.
Importantly, Pan African’s aspirations come second to balancing social and environmental considerations, with rehabilitation of historic mine sites uplifting the livelihoods of local communities considerably and improving air and water quality markedly.
The underground Evander mine, which hosts one of the world’s largest unexploited gold deposits, is providing ongoing life-extending material to enable the Elikhulu Tailings Retreatment Plant, ‘The Big One’, to live up to its name.
With Barberton mining rights valid until 2051, a five-year wage agreement, plus the latest solar power commissioning, point to ongoing returns from the area’s high grade underground mines, and Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant surface operation.
In an excellent position to capitalise on high margins and growing production, Pan African will be largely unhedged from March and completely degeared in the next 12 to 18 months.
Gold production for the six months ended December 31 was 84 705 oz, with full-year guidance for FY 2025 expected to hit a 16%-higher 215 000 oz amid Evander’s subvertical hoisting shaft being fully commissioned in January.
All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the half-year were $1 675/oz, up on last half-year’s $1 295/oz. AISC guidance for the second half-year are expected to be between $1 450/oz and $1 500/oz, with the expected cost reduction stemming from improved underground performance plus a full year of MTR production, FD Marileen Kok outlined during the presentation of interim financial results for the six months ended December 31.
Half-year revenue was $189.3-million and profit was a 10%-higher $44.6-million.
Net debt increased to $228.5-million, primarily as a result of the construction of the MTR operation and the consolidation of debt acquired as part of the TCMG acquisition.
A net dividend of $23.7-million was paid to shareholders in December.
What is highly regrettable is that a fatality occurred on December 30 following an underground mud rush at Evander 7 shaft. |
An RNS to confirm the hedge has ended would not be out of order. |
As soon as US market opens this gets sold off. Same pattern day after day now.
FCA does nothing. |
Do Not Expect To Engage With the Short Activist
There is rarely any point to engaging with a short activist. Unlike traditional long activism campaigns, where the goal is to cause the company to take action to increase shareholder value, the short activist’s sole goal is to destroy shareholder value. Consequently, the short activist is not interested in coordinating with or engaging with management to do what is in the best interests of shareholders. These investors have a thesis and generally are unconcerned with the company’s contrary position. Therefore precious time and resources should not be expended attempting to sway short activists to change their positions. Instead, energy should be directed to making the company’s case to the broader investor community.
Do Not Ignore the Attack or Leave It to Shareholders To Sort Out the Truth
In general, it is not in the company’s best interests to completely ignore a short attack. Companies should not rely on the investor community to identify how a short activist’s claims are incorrect or misleading. Failing to address a short seller report or campaign publicly may increase investor uncertainty and lead investors to assume the truth of the short seller’s claims. The onus is on the company to disprove these claims.
Responses should be well-articulated and, although time is of the essence, they should not be impulsive: They should be focused on addressing the substantive criticisms and allegations and not on the activist or its motivations. Any personal attacks or aggressive language toward the short seller are counterproductive and may be viewed as unprofessional and unbecoming of the company’s leadership, lending support to the short campaign.
In rare circumstances, if there has been no notable impact on the company’s stock price and if the campaign has not gained traction with the company’s investor base or the media, a company may consider not responding. In such instances, responding could simply put the spotlight on the short seller’s allegations.
Even if the board deems that a public response is unwarranted, the short campaign should be carefully tracked, and the company should remain prepared to respond if circumstances change. |
Go ahead and report them to the regulators stoned you. Take action! |
LBMA: Fuse Meets Keg
A follow-up to LBMA: De Facto Default
Charts and Parts
Feb 25, 2025
THE UNRAVELING BEGINS
The cracks in the LBMA are now undeniable. In LBMA: De Facto Default, we exposed the early warning signs of a system under stress—now the unraveling accelerates. Physical gold is fleeing, inventories are draining, and the system is running on fumes. But this isn’t just a slow-motion collapse -- it’s a full-blown unraveling. The players have lost control, and that’s the real problem.
What follows is a hypothesis; we play the odds. The fundamentals (the fuse) have been burning for decades, while the technical structure (the keg) has been packed with leverage, suppression, and mountains of gold paper -- fueling systemic fragility. When these two forces collide, the gold market won’t just transition -- it will detonate.
THE FUSE -- FUNDAMENTALS
Fiat has a perfect track record throughout history – they’ve all settled at zero. Money systems change. The only question is what comes next.
The buzzword is “unsustainable” -- global debt levels have reached the point of no return.
Central banks aren’t waiting -- they’re stockpiling gold at record levels.
BRICS nations are fast-tracking de-dollarization. The simple, popular trade: selling US Treasuries to buy gold.
Confidence in fiat currencies is deteriorating. Fiat has been in a bear market for 50 years (thank you, inflation) and it’s picking up speed.
When trust erodes, collapse accelerates.
Share
THE KEG -- TECHNICALS
The paper gold market runs on (at least) 100x leverage -- just 1 physical ounce backs 100 paper claims.
COMEX & LBMA use derivatives to suppress price discovery, propping up the illusion of stability.
Rehypothecation -- using the same gold as collateral multiple times -- has turned the system into a ticking time bomb.
When physical demand exceeds deliverable supply, the system unravels.
BREAKAGE
This system isn’t built to withstand physical gold stress. When the illusion of paper gold shatters, the scramble for real metal won’t just be a market event, it will reshape the global financial order. The system is breaking, and when it does, everything changes. The only question left: what happens next? That’s where we go from here. Stay tuned.
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Marshall Wace using their shorting tricks to manipulate the share price here.
Should have closed above 36p not 34p! |
Laurent Maurel: The end of paper gold?
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2025-02-22 10:47 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Laurent Maurel
GoldBroker, London
Friday, February 21, 2025
The price of gold is setting a string of all-time records, buoyed by strong physical demand. The rush to buy the precious metal is intensifying as investors and institutions seek to secure their assets in the face of economic uncertainty.
Stress signals are multiplying on the market, with delivery times lengthening, inventories under pressure and bullion premiums soaring. This upward movement reflects a growing crisis of confidence in paper gold and official gold reserves, as market players increasingly demand physical deliveries.
This week, StoneX's CEO sprang a surprise by declaring on Sky News Arabia that more than 2,000 tons of gold had been transferred to the United States in the space of a few weeks.
Philip Smith warned of a persistent price discrepancy between gold futures in New York (Comex) and the physical over-the-counter market in London. This divergence, oscillating between $25 and $30 an ounce, impacts market efficiency and reflects a climate of uncertainty exacerbated by the Trump administration's trade policies.
Since November, the threat of tariffs (up to 25%) has disrupted gold flows and pricing. In response, more than 2,000 tons of gold have been transferred to the United States in recent weeks, a massive movement fueled by investors' desire to protect themselves in the face of regulatory ambiguity.
Two thousand tons of gold -- a staggering figure. It illustrates a veritable rush for physical gold, revealing a clear urgency to move all available metal to the United States. The unprecedented scale of this movement reflects growing concern about tensions on the gold market and the future availability of the metal.
This massive transfer reflects a loss of confidence in the storage of gold abroad, particularly in London, which has always occupied a central position in the precious metals market. The idea that a country as powerful as the United States considers it essential to secure such a large volume of gold on its territory fuels speculation about possible shortages or a reconfiguration of the international monetary system.
At the same time, gold deliveries on the Comex are reaching record levels, a clear indicator of the explosion in demand for physical gold. This phenomenon could create a snowball effect, prompting other major institutions and central banks to step up their delivery demands, putting further pressure on the system as a whole. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
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GATA is grateful to these companies for their recent support:
Apollo Silver Corp.
Barksdale Resources
Dolly Varden Silver Corp.
Dryden Gold Corp.
Group Eleven Resources
Guanajuato Silver
IBK Capital Corp.
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Mining Discovery
Power Nickel
Silver North
Strike Point Gold
The National Investor
The Prospector
Western Alaska Minerals
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