Pan African Resources Share Discussion Threads

[stonedyou] 25/9/2023 15:34

Estimated World Official Gold Holdings Reach Record High.


My estimation of global official gold reserves hit 38,764 tonnes in Q2 2023, breaking its previous record from 1965. The new high confirms the world has entered a new era of gold. Central banks will continue to accumulate gold and the metal’s role in the international monetary system will increase to the detriment of the US dollar.


Analysts widely use the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculation for total official gold holdings, though what is usually overlooked is that this number is an estimate by the Fund. As mentioned in my previous article on the official gold reserves of China, not every central bank is transparent about its gold holdings. The Chinese central bank (PBoC) reports to have 2,113 tonnes, while it’s an open secret in the gold industry the PBoC owns much more than that—about 5,000 tonnes, according to my analysis. Another example, the central bank of Syria stopped reporting its gold holdings in 2011. For its computation of world holdings, the IMF carries forward the last known data point, assuming Syria still holds 26 tonnes.

My personal evaluation of global official gold reserves is largely based on how the IMF compiles its world series, the main difference being “unreported purchases” traced by industry insiders that I include in my data. My approach:

The base consists of the the last registered volumes from all central banks and monetary authorities, also of the ones that stopped reporting years ago.
For China I use my own numbers going back to 1995.
Unreported purchases by central banks other than the PBoC are added, measured by the difference between the World Gold Council’s estimated total purchases based on field research and reported changes by all central banks combined.
Known reserves by sovereign wealth funds are included*.
Gold owned by international financial intuitions such as the European Central Bank and West African Economic and Monetary Union is also added.
Swaps on the balance sheets of the Turkish central bank and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) are subtracted.
Based on my methodology, world official gold holdings reached 38,764 tonnes in June 2023, which is approximately 400 tonnes more than the prior high set in 1965 at 38,347 tonnes.

[zhockey] 22/9/2023 17:04

Justice, with respect I’m not sure that’s a fair comparison :)

[cinoib] 20/9/2023 19:21

Justice, After reading the results I couldn't help,but pick a few up once more and see where we go and have already covered costs, so good start.

[stonedyou] 20/9/2023 16:56

China lifts temporary curbs on gold imports as renminbi recovers.

Spread between Shanghai spot price and London hit record $121 per troy ounce

last week.


China’s central bank has lifted temporary curbs on gold imports that were imposed on some lenders in a bid to defend the renminbi but caused the price of the precious metal to rise in the country.
The spread between the Shanghai gold price and London hit a record $121 per troy ounce last Thursday, according to calculations based on public traded prices.
The spread narrowed to $76 on Monday after the People’s Bank of China relaxed curbs on imports of the precious metal last week, said people familiar with the informal order given to some state and midsized commercial banks.
China in August had reduced and stopped granting quotas for international gold imports by banks to ease a rush in purchases to hedge against a weaker domestic currency. The renminbi fell to its lowest point against the dollar in 16 years in early September after the release of disappointing economic data.
China’s central bank issued a strong warning against bets on renminbi depreciation last week and has rolled out measures to defend the currency, including state bank purchases and lowering foreign reserve requirements at banks. The currency has bounced back from its low to trade around Rmb7.286 against the dollar on Monday afternoon.
The gold import curbs were lifted last Friday, said one person familiar with the guidance and another person who received the instructions. It was not clear if the easing pressure on the renminbi led to the restrictions being lifted, said the people.

The PBoC declined to comment.

[justiceforthemany] 20/9/2023 12:39

zhockey you obtuse tool I can name 4
Barrick Gold and Newmont trade at >20x earnings
Fresnillo same
Centamin ~ 10x

DYOFR

[justiceforthemany] 20/9/2023 12:37

EDISON RESEARCH
Valuation: Cheap by any measure

Despite making a number of adjustments to our model to reflect updated circumstances, as well as guidance, our core (absolute) valuation of the company remains almost unchanged at 34.59c (cf 34.24c previously), based on projects either sanctioned or already in production. However, this valuation rises by a further 18.59–23.61c if other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.4x in the period FY10–23 is applied to our FY24 and FY25 forecasts, it implies a share price of 36.29p in FY24, followed by one of 38.22p in FY25. As such, PAF’s current share price of 14.28p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS falling to 2.12c per share (cf 5.40c/share and 5.69c/share for FY24 and FY25 forecast, respectively). In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 94% of commonly used valuation measures if Edison’s forecasts are used and 86% of the same measures if consensus forecasts are used, which collectively imply a share price of 27.24p on the basis of our year one EPS and 35.17p based on our year two EPS. Finally, we estimate that PAF has the sixth highest dividend yield of any precious metals mining company, globally (cf the 10th highest previously). In the meantime, its enterprise value equates to just US$9.41 per resource ounce of gold.

[cinoib] 19/9/2023 13:10

Just been looking at the results and lot better than others and still very much under valued like many a gold miner of the last 2 years. If the gold price reflected the conditions of the globe then we would look a lot better, but the greedy gits on wall St are to blame for a lot of current woes as gold should be closer to $3,500, but given time they will run into the mess they have created then we might,,, might see a better result.

[zhockey] 19/9/2023 07:37

Can you name one gold miner at this scale of production with a pe of 10?

[justiceforthemany] 15/9/2023 15:59

Forward P/E of 3 for the year ending June 2024 is all any investor needs to focus on.
Industry average of 10 x P/E = 30p

[blue59] 13/9/2023 14:49

True enough!

[creditcrunchies] 13/9/2023 12:20

Yes you're right 0.75219p plus it's taxed. At least they pay dividends there's a lot of dross out there that doesn't

[blue59] 13/9/2023 11:18

CC 0.956 cents not pence.

[neilyb675] 13/9/2023 10:46

yes wool being pulled over eyes here, its less, and "sector leading" it isnt

[neilyb675] 13/9/2023 10:14

The board has proposed a final dividend of ZAR400.1 million for the 2023 financial year (approximately US$21.2 million), equal to ZA 18.00000 cents per share or approximately US 0.95592 cents per share (0.75219 pence per share). A dividend of ZA 18.00000 cents per share or approximately US 1.05820 cents per share (or 0.86915 pence per share) was paid for the 2022 financial year. The dividend is subject to approval by shareholders at the AGM, which is to be convened on Thursday, 23 November 2023.

Less than last years based on the exchange rate used.

[creditcrunchies] 13/9/2023 09:34

Results out 0.956p dividend increase in forecast production

[creditcrunchies] 11/9/2023 22:37

Full year earnings release on Wednesday

[justiceforthemany] 01/9/2023 13:21

Trading at just 25% of its true value.
50p+

[blue59] 01/9/2023 11:44

I'll leave you to your ramblings.

[justiceforthemany] 01/9/2023 10:55

No way of proving that. Eskom stage 2-4 nowhere near as severe as what you are spamming on here. Why not write 'I know' then instead of 'I hear?'

A house in the Cape and you decide to come on here and write some negative comments about lowly old PAF?

Try writing something useful next time like AISC, forward EPS, P/E and Mintails.

Even based on last year's figures that included several setbacks shares are trading at just 5x earnings

[blue59] 01/9/2023 08:15

PS With both solar power and generator back up.

[blue59] 01/9/2023 08:12

I have a house in the Cape if that's what you mean?!