Pan African Resources Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 15/6/2023 11:26

Do you have any stake here stoned or do you just like a good old rant?

[justiceforthemany] 14/6/2023 16:23

Valuation: Still closer to 30p than 20p

Notwithstanding our earnings forecast reduction, PAF remains cheap relative to both its historical trading record and its peers. Our core (absolute) valuation of the company has risen by 4.8% to 34.17c (cf 32.59c previously), based on projects either sanctioned or already in production, with all of the increase effectively attributable to the recent decline in the value of the rand against the US dollar. Moreover, this valuation rises by a further 17.06–22.08c (16.09–21.11c preciously) once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.6x in the period FY10–22 is applied to our FY23 and FY24 forecasts, it implies a share price of 26.56p in FY23 (cf 29.53p previously), followed by one of 32.74p in FY24. As such, PAF’s current share price of 13.50p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS falling to 1.94c per share in FY23. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 83% of commonly used valuation measures, which collectively imply a share price of 35.06p in FY23 and one of 35.09p in FY24. Finally, we estimate that PAF still has the 13th highest dividend yield of any precious metals mining company, globally.

[lyceeuk] 13/6/2023 16:56

empty heads out in force today

[justiceforthemany] 06/6/2023 21:28

Bloomberg reporting there has been no loadshedding for several days now. Needs to continue but if it does PAF is seriously undervalued.

[blue59] 06/6/2023 09:27

astjgroom - Good call!

[tuscan4] 01/6/2023 19:48

Edison still looking for 35p with upgraded earnings even after the problems.

[justiceforthemany] 30/5/2023 11:37

They already had a decent enough holding but the way Cobus and Hethen Hira of IR store up bad news and have leaks is far from satisfactory. They need to ramp up solar power ASAP. Depreciation of the Rand should help margins.

[lovewinshatelosses] 30/5/2023 11:36

Agree. Good to see inside buying, but in this case, I think they may not look big enough purchases to reverse the current trend here. Some of the early morning sells looked like an ii as well, but I could be wrong. Still watching, but not buying, at the moment. GLA.

[blue59] 30/5/2023 09:25

Far too few to be effective, and as such, counterproductive.

[2vdm] 30/5/2023 07:42

Yes, 200K shares by Cobus and 230K by the FD. Helps show they have confidence

[justiceforthemany] 29/5/2023 14:06

Up 8% in SA
Perhaps directors have finally added...

[justiceforthemany] 26/5/2023 21:51

I used to think like you but P/E's and fundamentals no longer matter in the market today.
It is psychotic and mad.
All about the trend.
South Africa is seen as risky now and out of favour so I doubt much new money will be invested here or in SA stocks.
Going back to trends look at what is happening with AI.
Or crypto in 2021. Peloton, Zoom, Beyond Meat. Tesla. Ramped up to the hilt and then crashed.
You say P/E of 4 or 5? Yes true but this market simply does not care. It has its favourites and even if they are trading at 100x earnings that is not seen as expensive.
Stupid I know but this statement is true based on many years in the market.
Ocado never made a profit but hit 3000p a share. A couple of years later it is at 400p.
Sylvania Platinum is trading at a P/E of just 3.
Barclays is at a P/E of 4.5 and a third of its book value.
Vodafone is also now trading at just 0.4x book value.
Fundamentals do not matter now. The posh conceited arrogant city boys in the big banks manipulate markets as they wish.
All about Nvidia and AI now. Ride the wave while it lasts....

[tuscan4] 26/5/2023 17:20

I agree with 2vdm. I am a long term holder and have added today. Excellent management. S Africa seems to be regaining a little sense so I don't fear the government. They badly need their gold mining sector to regain capacity and I believe that they will become more mining friendly in the coming years. P/E could still be 4/5 this year and 3/4 next year / Also likely to be divs as B/S in good shape.

[justiceforthemany] 26/5/2023 15:55

Really? Winter is coming in SA. Load shedding ++. Possibly more deaths. Nationalisation risk. Gold price already at record highs, could slump. So many risks + very leaky and rogue ship. Why are you adding?

[2vdm] 26/5/2023 15:20

I've been watching this today and am a LTH. I think Cobus is very capable and have added , as I think PAF will overcome these immediate problems.

[justiceforthemany] 26/5/2023 12:56

Cobus used to be good but not so sure anymore. Power issues are outside his control but Mintails is a risky and unnecessary project at this time.

[farrugia] 26/5/2023 12:21

just bought my first modest tranch - if it goes down another 10% I'll buy another one.

[justiceforthemany] 26/5/2023 12:11

Hethen Hira from Investor Relations is another disgrace.
Insider trading is rife make no mistake.
Almost like the company has been saving up all the bad news to kitchen sink it.
What chance do PI's have?
All about trend.
Marks Spencer has been frozen for months, results out this week, surges 12% in a bad market. Insiders knew it would be good.
Same thing going on with Centrica.
Bar stewards especially FCA.

[farrugia] 26/5/2023 09:55

its not tiger's fault. this is a very tricky market. it is like ditching bullets - i think this is a good company although sentiment won't help it in the short-term.

[cinoib] 26/5/2023 09:54

Not a good start to the day or end too the week. Now we know why it was so slow too respond to increase gold price. Bloody thieves every where you look, is getting as bad as the yanks, insider trading and friend to friend saying, don't be in a rush we have a problem. Should lock the bloody lot up and throw away the key. This is what has killed the planet, pure bloody greed. It's getting to be that the best place to be is on the farm far from anyone and do as much as you can yourself. A bit like me. Please I only had one batch left