Pan African Resources Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 07/10/2019 15:23

Y/E Jun
Revenue (US$m)
EBITDA (US$m)
PBT (US$m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2018A 145.8 38.1 29.3 1.31 10.8 48.0
2019A 217.4 64.0 35.6 1.56 9.1 4.8
2020E 274.6 114.8 83.4 2.46 5.8 2.7
2021E 309.9 149.8 120.3 3.75 3.8 1.9
LAST UPDATED ON 03/10/2019 EDISON RESEARCH

[stonedyou] 03/10/2019 21:19

Why Gold Is Poised to Go Higher



Ever since President Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971, there have been

significant attempts by multiple investment institutions and media outlets to

portray a negative bias against gold. Due to years of negative publicity, many

investors hold a negative bias towards holding gold, or are unaware of the

benefits of holding gold. The average investor has been steered away from gold,

which is resulting in limited participation from pension funds and the public.

Historically, it was advantageous to hold at least 5% gold within a portfolio in

order to truly diversify. Currently, pension funds only hold a 0.5% portfolio

allocation, which is alarming considering the unfunded liabilities facing many of

these funds. Exhibit K displays gold as a percentage of global financial assets,

and displays the changes from 1960 until now. As discussed, it was historically

desirable to hold at least 5% gold within a portfolio, but at the end of 2018,

gold only accounted for 0.5% holdings.

[stonedyou] 03/10/2019 21:17

Exhibit K

When I wrote $10,000 Gold: Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise Is the Investor’s Safe Haven

in 2013, I felt like a lone wolf in the wilderness with my prediction. Today,

Pierre Lassonde has predicted $25,000 gold, and Jim Rickards $40,000 gold. While

the predictions seem far-fetched to many investors, if we analyze the available

supply of gold and the amount of financial assets in the marketplace, then we can

attain a reasonable prediction for the gold price. There is a total of about $300

trillion in financial assets, consisting of stocks and bonds. While there is about

$7.78 trillion of aboveground gold, only $1.64 trillion is investment-grade

bullion. The remaining gold is typically found in jewellery ($3.7 trillion),

official sectors ($1.34 trillion) or other sectors ($1.1 trillion). Of the $1.64

trillion of bullion, no one knows how much is held by the world’s richest

families, such as the Rothschilds. This privately held bullion would not be

exchanged for fiat currencies, regardless of the price. However, even if you

assume that the entire $1.64 trillions’ worth of bullion were available, if 5% of

investors in financial assets decided to allocate to bullion, that would equate to

$15 trillion of demand. Since mine supply has been in decline, and it takes about

20 years to bring a mine from discovery to production, the only way you can divide

$15 trillion into $1.64 trillion is for the price to go up to $11,500/oz.

[stonedyou] 03/10/2019 21:12

Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce



Before making an investment decision, every investor should understand true

inflation. But what is true inflation? Currently, inflation is measured using a

floating basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continues to

understate true inflation.

Two useful tools for determining true inflation figures are John Williams’s Shadow

Statistics and the Chapwood Index. John Williams, a renowned economist, provides

excellent insights about the severity of misstated inflation rates. Using a fixed

basket from 1980 to compare to today’s prices determines that inflation is

actually 9.46%, not 1.75% as represented by the CPI. Exhibit A provides a visual

interpretation of discrepancies between reported inflation and true inflation.




Exhibit A

To put this into perspective, we will use an example that affects many investors

daily. Assuming inflation is held at 2% (as desired by many economies), a bond

yielding 3% would return 1% after the effects of inflation were taken into

consideration. However, using John Williams’s true measure of inflation (9.46% in

this case), an investor would quickly realize that they are losing 6.46% in annual

purchasing power by holding onto the bonds. This is extremely valuable to

investors, because it goes against many conventional investment strategies

displayed in the media. Understanding the true effects of inflation could be the

difference between capital gains and capital losses for your portfolio.

In addition to ShadowStats, the Chapwood Index is a great tool for measuring real

cost of living increases, because it calculates the top 500 items Americans spend

their after-tax dollars on in the 50 largest cities of the nation[1]. The Index

reports the actual price increase of the top 500 items with no seasonal

adjustments and focuses on real price changes. The average stated inflation rate

among the 50 largest cities within the Index determined that true inflation is

10.7%, also much higher than the 1.75% reported by the CPI. Like the example

previously used, investors would be losing purchasing power by holding onto

investment vehicles with yields lower than 10%.


Gold Is Not Simply A Disaster Hedge


A common misconception about gold is that it is simply a hedge against disasters.

Although gold acts as a strong hedge against disaster, there are many additional

benefits of holding gold that are rarely covered in mainstream media. Holding at

least 10% of a portfolio in gold will reduce volatility and improve returns.

Because the risks of a market crash are significant, the minimum gold allocation

today should be 20%.





Exhibit B

Exhibit B shows the correlation of various asset classes against US equities,

which is important due to the typical weightings the equities carry within an

investor’s portfolio. A portfolio consisting of 60% equities and 40% bonds is a

common investment allocation used within the marketplace today. Unfortunately,

this does not result in a fully diversified portfolio. According to Ibbotson &

Associates, stocks and bonds have been correlated since 1969. If a market

correction were to occur, both equities and bonds would suffer declines and, as a

result, a 60/40 portfolio is not fully diversified. Analyzing the table above

shows that gold carries almost no correlation to US equities, and thus is an

excellent tool for truly diversifying your portfolio. If the economic indicators

pointing towards an economic downturn prove to be correct, then gold is one of the

best available methods for protecting your capital.

A secondary benefit of gold is its ability to preserve purchasing power. This is

extremely important across many demographic categories, but may be most important

for those planning their retirements. Upon retirement, the opportunity to increase

your net worth begins to diminish, and makes loss of capital much more detrimental

due to lack of time to recover from losses. On an inflation-adjusted basis, it

took until 1984 to break even following the 1929 crash. Exhibit C is a useful

table for displaying gold’s ability to maintain purchasing power throughout

history. The table compares how many ounces of gold were required to buy a car, a

home, or a share of the Dow Jones. Comparing the figures, it is evident that less

gold is required now than in 1971 when looking to make each of the purchases. This

indicates that gold maintains and even strengthens in purchasing power over time,

which cannot be said for simply holding cash or bonds throughout the investment

horizon.




Exhibit C

Exhibit D looks at the central bank holdings of gold and how they have evolved. It

is evident that up until 2007, the central banks were net sellers of their gold

reserves; however, the financial crisis of 2008 forced the central banks to become

net buyers of gold. This shows the increased fear of a potential currency crisis,

which can be accounted for by increasing consumer and government debt levels that

have continued to increase even after the 2008 crisis. Quantitative easing (QE)was

used during the 2008 recession to aid the economy; however, at current debt

levels, additional QE will continue to hurt world currencies, and will push gold

on its continued upward trend.

[justiceforthemany] 02/10/2019 23:33

Share price has again closed well below the JSE equivalent. AIM is a manipulated disgrace. FCA need informing. Company has been told several times about this.

[risa5] 02/10/2019 02:39

Traders doing their PM business as China goes on holiday....

As of today, China will be on vacation for its Golden Week National Holiday and this weakness appears to be traders front-running the traditional chaos that the rest of the world plays when China leaves the playing field.
China will be back in business on October 9th, and that means the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which opened in 2015 to counter Western manipulation of precious metals, will likely help re-balance prices to where they were before this recent takedown.
We could be wrong, but something tells us gold and silver prices won’t stay this low for much longer and that they could well see a complete turnaround when China reopens on October 9th.

Tyler Durden

Mon, 09/30/2019 – 11:33

[justiceforthemany] 01/10/2019 17:16

22,726.66 ZAR GOLD PRICE

+497.63

+2.24%

Good day for ZAR GOLD PRICE today

[justiceforthemany] 01/10/2019 11:43

Very surprised by the downward trend here. At 11p shares are trading at an insane 3x earnings. Dividend also restored. ZAR gold close to all time highs. Political risks yes in SA but I doubt the directors x3 including CEO and Chairman would be buying if any imminent risk.

PAF should arguably be trading at 3x the current share price.

[stonedyou] 29/9/2019 10:37

'MASS SURRENDER' Thousands of Saudi soldiers ‘captured or killed’ by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen two weeks after oil plant attack, reports claim


YEMENI rebels have claimed to have captured thousands of Saudi troops in an attack

near the border.

Yemen's Houthi movement said tonight it had carried out a major attack near the

border with the southern Saudi region of Najran and claimed three "enemy military

brigades had fallen".



Claims of the attack comes just two weeks after an Iran-backed missile strike on

Saudi's main oil plant, which sparked a spike in global petrol prices.

The oil plant strikes also heightened tensions between Iran and the US with

President Donald Trump threatening the nation, saying the US is better prepared

for war than any other country.



American officials claim Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's "fingerprints"

were all over the Saudi oil plant blitz and satellite images showed his henchmen

preparing the launch site.

SAUDI OIL ATTACK

Trump warned the US military was "locked and loaded" - responding to Tehran's

threat that it is "ready for fully-fledged war".

There was no immediate confirmation from Saudi Arabian authorities tonight but the

Houthis' military spokesman said the attack was launched 72 hours ago and

supported by the group's drone, missile and air defence units.

But if the claims are true, the attack could prove one of the most significant

events in the Middle East in recent years.



It comes as a brutal civil war rages in Yemen and has claimed more than 16,000

lives and left 13million people on the brink of starvation.

The conflict has been dubbed a "proxy war" among competing powers in the Middle

East as a US-backed Saudi-led coalition battles rebels backed by Iran.

[ntv] 28/9/2019 08:44

Appears to have gone up 3.37% on JSE, why is it down here?

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2019 18:05

Closing price is consistently not matching the JSE equivalent - not a new problem though. Closed here 11.2p - should be 11.5p.

[ntv] 25/9/2019 11:37

gold price back to over R730k per kilo
Last time time it was at this price PAF share price was about 13.75p
Just shows nobody wants to buy anything

[macthepak] 24/9/2019 21:55

Gold price in SA Rand = 22,764 +81 +0.36%
Gold price in US dollars = 1,531 +7.4 +0.49%

If the gold price stays like this then expect PAF share increase of 0.20p to 0.40p

To get back over 14p per PAF share price we need a SA Rand price for gold in excess of 23,500 ZAR per Oz

[stonedyou] 24/9/2019 21:23

Interesting.....


(Kitco News) - Gold’s next upside target is $1,600 an ounce, according to analysts

who are confident that the gold rally is not over due to unresolved U.S.-China

trade talks, weak global growth and dovish Federal Reserve expectations.

Gold prices made another solid advance on Tuesday, rising above $1,540 an ounce

after erasing all daily losses from earlier in the session. December Comex gold

futures were last at $1,535.40, up 0.25% on the day.




Traders were busy digesting U.S. President Donald Trump’s hawkish speech to the

United Nations in New York on Tuesday afternoon, in which Trump said that “the

future does not belong to globalists, the future belongs to patriots.”


Gold benefitted from Trump’s comments in regards to China and Iran with prices

beginning to rise during the speech.


“Harsh language from President Trump toward China and Iran prompted a sell-off in

the U.S. stock market, the U.S. dollar index and crude oil. That, in turn,

prompted some buying interest in safe-haven gold,” Kitco’s senior technical

analyst said in his gold update.

The next major level gold could hit is $1,600 an ounce, according to TD Securities

and Scotiabank.


After a short-term pause, gold will be ready to rise again, which is why the

yellow metal is “still a buy,” TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek

wrote on Monday.


“While we think the gold market pauses for a while, the gold rally should continue

to take prices into the $1,600s. Weakness in Europe and China will likely force

Fed Chair Powell to deliver a substantial policy easing,” Melek said.

Markets are currently pricing in a 64.1% chance of another 25-basis-point rate cut

by the Federal Reserve in October, according to CME FedWatch Tool, which is a

bullish scenario for gold.

Fed’s liquidity injections this September are encouraging some gold bulls to

expect further quantitative easing from the U.S. central bank, added Melek.


“The short-term lending system has come under pressure last week with the Federal

Reserve forced to intervene with liquidity injections for the first time in a

decade … The Fed inject[ed] over just over $340 billion worth of liquidity into

the market with a promise of more, should also help to keep gold bid. On Friday,

the New York Fed announced that it would continue to offer $75 billion in daily

repo transactions through October 10 and offer two-week repo trades as well,” he

said. “Some gold observers see this as a sign of instability and a signal that the

U.S. central bank will need to continue to provide liquidity, if not de-facto QE.”


Increased geopolitical tensions will continue to support gold this fall, said

Scotiabank in its latest precious metals update.


“Gold saturation certainly poses some short-term downside risk, but a structural

driver (geopolitical escalation) has been renewed which puts the target back on

$1,600 gold (> $20 silver),” wrote Scotiabank commodity strategist Nicky Shiels.

[macthepak] 24/9/2019 18:37

The best indicator as to the movement of the share price I have found is gold price in South African Rand.

If the price of gold in Rand increases the share price of PAF increases.

If the price of gold in dollar increases and the price in Rand decreases the share price usually falls i.e. follow the Rand price.

What I do now when I get up at around 07:00am I check the gold price in Rand if it is up then PAF share price will either stay put or rise at 08:00am when trading starts.

[stonedyou] 22/9/2019 17:24

Russia’s Massive Gold Stash Is Now Worth More Than $100Bln


Russia’s long-running bet on gold is looking better every month.

The country quadrupled gold reserves in the past decade as it diversified away

from U.S. assets, a move that has paid off recently as haven demand sent prices to

a six-year high. In the past year, the value of the nation’s gold jumped 42% to

$109.5 billion and the metal now makes up the biggest share of Russia’s total

reserves since 2000.

Russia’s central bank has been the largest buyer of gold in the past few years as

President Vladimir Putin seeks to break reliance on the U.S. dollar as relations

between the countries remain strained. If Russia did need to tap its gold holding,

it would fetch a hefty price — the metal is heading for the best year since 2010

as the U.S.-China trade war hurts global growth and central banks ease monetary

policy.

“Russia prefers to cushion its macroeconomic stability through politically neutral

tools,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S in

Helsinki. “There is a massive substitution of U.S. dollar assets by gold — a

strategy which has earned billions of dollars for the Bank of Russia just within

several months.”






Putin’s Big Bet on Gold Is Paying Off

Russia isn’t alone in hoarding gold. China, Kazakhstan and Poland have been among

the biggest buyers in the past couple of years, and global holdings are expected

to increase for a while yet.

Not all of Russia’s moves are paying off. Last year, the central bank shifted

about $100 billion of U.S. holdings into euros, yuan and the yen, and since then

the Chinese currency has dropped. Russia also missed out on the rally in U.S.

Treasuries.

Russia may keep buying gold to compensate for those other losses in its reserves,

said Kirill Tremasov, a former Economics Ministry official and now director of

analysis at Loko-Invest in Moscow. So far it’s working, with gold up 18% this year

to $1,508 an ounce.

For Russia at least, it’s more about diversification than benefiting from the

price. The central bank started buying gold more than a decade ago as it rallied

toward 2011‘s record, and kept adding when prices dropped in the following few

years.

“The central bank is unlikely to have pursued the goal of earning in the process

of managing gold reserves,” Dmitry Dolgin, an economist at ING Bank, said by

email. “The buying was rather about diversification of assets.”

[stonedyou] 21/9/2019 17:26

JP Morgan Gold Rigging a Fraction of the Story | Chris Powell, GATA.org


JP Morgan’s Precious Metals Desk Was a Criminal Enterprise, U.S. Says

You can read more of our reaction in the link above.

Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA.org) drops by to discuss this US Department of Justice RICO criminal lawsuit against the Global Head of JP Morgan Precious Metals Trading Desk and other silver, gold, platinum, and palladium trading executives at the too-big to restructure bank.

We dig not only in the details of the train wreck that is JP Morgan in 2019 but also how disgraced the LBMA and CME Group's COMEX NYMEX are by association and public record documentation.

This bombshell lawsuit is just a fraction of the story to likely unfold