Oxford Metrics Share Discussion Threads

[stegrego] 28/4/2010 13:04

Hoodless B

OMG (OMG, 19.25p, £13.15m) reports in a trading update for the 6 months to 31 March 2010, revenues are expected to be in the region of £14.4m. A shift in the sales mix to higher margin products has driven the PBT performance for the half year to exceed the current FY PBT of £1.1m. This is an outstanding performance and we therefore expect the market to significantly upgrade 2010 and 2011 estimates. Cash at the bank stood at £4.1m. Assuming H1 is stronger than H2, we anticipate 2010 PBT of £1.8m and EPS of 1.8p. The group has also won a new contract to provide Motile Robotics Inc, with a 16 camera T160 Vicon motion capture system with Nexus and Tracker software. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation and increase our target price from 21p to 24p.



I was holding these a few weeks back but sold - should have held.

[stegrego] 28/4/2010 13:00

It could be read like that but i dont think its the case.

They would put this in at the end...

'the Board believes it reasonable to expect a full year PBT performance that is ahead of current market expectations'

And they would use words such as 'materially' or 'significantly'

This is probably on a p/e of 10 to 12.

[bbonsall] 28/4/2010 12:53

Stegrego

Yes, but this morning's announcement said OMG were going to beat the full year profit forecast in the first half. So more than £1.7 million profit in the first 6 months would equate to abot £3.5 million profit in the full year. OMG is seriously undervalued INMHO.

[davidosh] 28/4/2010 12:50

I checked with the financial PR advisors and they say revenue forecasts are for a consensus of 26.3m and pbt of 1.1m with eps at 1.2p so even if that were beaten by 30% for the full year then the p/e rating would still be in double figures. I think the second half is generally weaker or am I wrong in that assumption ?

[stegrego] 28/4/2010 12:46

'GBP1.7 million for the year to end-September'

Thats the full year not half.

[bbonsall] 28/4/2010 12:06

garth
My analysis above was using information in the 10.37 DJN news item issued this morning.
Viz para 5, "It didn't give figures, but analysts expect the company to report a pretax profit of GBP1.7 million for the year to end-September, according to FactSet."

So if more than £1.7 million is expected for first half, then say £3.5 million for full year gives EPS = (3.5/65 million shares) = 5.38p

[garth] 28/4/2010 11:47

Current forecasts are for 1.18p this year, 1.58p next year.... Would expect that if they were going to get anywhere close to 5p we would have had far more dramatic language this morning?

[bbonsall] 28/4/2010 11:16

So the cash alone is more than 6p per share. Market cap only £13.5 million, 6 months turnover will be £14.7 million and profit for 6 months will be more than £1.7 million. So if the same is repeated for second half the EPS will be more than 5p. All makes the current share price look ridiculously low. PE about 4. AIMHO

[smarkmmm] 28/4/2010 08:36

"...the Group now expects to report a profit before tax ("PBT") performance for the half year that is ahead of the market's current PBT expectations for the full year. Cash at bank as at 31st March 2010 stood at £4.1m."

[smarkmmm] 22/4/2010 10:22

SenseCam - or Vicon Revue - now for sale, and importantly not just for researchers as originally stated but "will also be available to individuals for their personal use."

"Revue is currently shipping to the UK, European Union, US and Canada."

https://www.viconrevue.com/shop/index.php

Main application is for the treatment of Alzheimer's.

From OMG's final report: "...with one in 14 of the UK's over-65 population suffering from dementia the potential applications of this product are clear."



Few quotes from the brochure:

"Vicon Revue™, based on Microsoft SenseCam technology, is a wearable camera that has the potential to revolutionize how memory disorders are treated. Preliminary studies of this unique device have demonstrated that autobiographical memory is significantly enhanced in people with severe memory impairment."

"Originally conceived as a 'black box' incident recorder...."

"In addition to its value as a memory aid, many other applications
have been suggested for SenseCam technology. These include:

•Assessing physical and mental health
•Monitoring outcomes of treatment
•Improving general cognitive functioning
•Ethnography
•Monitoring exercise, medication, diet, alcohol intake
•Security, law enforcement and military applications
•Emergency services
•Reflective practice
•Teaching, school projects
•Documentaries, art projects
•Video blogging, sharing experiences"



Publications from Microsoft Research

[empirestate] 19/4/2010 22:33

decided to hold back for a while since evidence of a seller here

[empirestate] 18/4/2010 11:51

with GBP11 million NET NAV and an mcap of GBP12 million with no debt, this is an absolute steal at this price. trading update due at the end of April. gonna pick some up monday considering the positive aspects of the AGM

[serge1234] 08/4/2010 13:50

Ok thank you very much

[gengulphus] 08/4/2010 11:40

When a company has other companies as subsidiaries (i.e. more than 50% owned, so it can control them), and is not itself a subsidiary of another company, the company's "group" consists of the company itself (the "parent company"), all of its subsidiaries, all of the subsidiaries of its subsidiaries, all of the subsidiaries of the subsidiaries of its subsidiaries, etc.

The group accounts tell you about the combined finances of the entire group; the company accounts tell you about those of the parent company on its own. They're both relevant, but for different purposes - as a general rule, the group accounts tell you about the overall business controlled by the owners of the company's shares, while the parent company accounts tell you about various matters associated with that company on its own. For example, company law says that a company can only pay dividends out of distributable reserves, not out of non-distributable reserves. When you're paid a dividend on your shareholding, it's paid by the parent company, so it's the parent company's distributable reserves that count. It's perfectly possible that the group as a whole has negative distributable reserves, due to the negative distributable reserves in the subsidiaries being larger than the positive distributable reserves in the parent company and other subsidiaries. That prevents the subsidiaries with negative distributable reserves paying dividends to their shareholders, but only affects the parent company's ability to pay dividends indirectly - not being able to receive dividends from subsidiaries will make it harder for the parent company to replenish its distributable reserves.

One other point to note is that because subsidiaries don't have to be 100% owned, the group accounts mainly present a picture of what shareholders of the parent company control rather than of what they own. To give the final picture of what they own, the parts that are owned by other shareholders of the less-than-100%-owned subsidiaries are subtracted as "Minority interests".

Gengulphus

[serge1234] 07/4/2010 15:44

Hi, I'm new to this name and pretty interested in the business. I've been looking at the accounts and was hoping someone could explain to me the difference between the "group" and the "company" accounts... Are the "company" accounts consolidated into the "group"?

Was just wondering how the loss at the company level affects shareholders if at all or is that loss already accounted for on the group level?

Thanks
serge

[smarkmmm] 06/4/2010 23:40

New web site for Yotta:

[geovest] 23/3/2010 08:00

Three months is quite common. A company typically would announce results as soon as accounts have been completed and audited (2-3 months after year end). Formal annual report must then be completed and printed and sent to shareholders with the notice of AGM. The AGM must approve the dividend before it can be paid. Smaller companies take a little longer because they don't have dedicated resource for this and less pull with auditors to complete in a hurry. Even larger companies take some time, eg Legal & General announced results today with y/e 31/12, results 23/3, divi payment date 1/6.

Forecasts are currently Profit £1.1m. EPS 1.18p Div 0.12p

[bbonsall] 22/3/2010 19:21

It gets madder by the day! The bid price now values OMG at £11 million. Not bad for a company with a turnover of £26 million and £2.7 million cash and no debts.
Since last March the FTSE has gained 55% whilst OMG has lost 15%, even while economies worldwide are recovering and corporate profitability is improving.

[smarkmmm] 22/3/2010 14:19

This company seems to have so much potential, and yet the price still drifts...


Another potential SenseCam spplication:



"Danone's Green believes that SenseCams have the potential to revolutionise the way brands carry out research. While his company would never use just one type of research technique, he thinks strategic use of lifelogging offers a level of insight that cannot be replicated elsewhere. "It is no more time-consuming than any other ethnographic study," he argues. "It's a small tool that could have huge application."

And some news from Yotta:

[bbonsall] 22/2/2010 14:26

There is an article in the Daily Telegraph today about UAVs.



On 13 June 2008 OMG issued a RNS containing the following announcement.
The link for the full RNS is



"Northrop Grumman Corporation ("NGC"), a key US prime contractor for the US Department of Defense, has engaged 2d3 on an evaluation
contract which, upon completion, will prove 2d3's algorithms a critical component in allowing an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ("UAV") to sense
and avoid other aircraft using 2d3 proprietary technology.

Completion of the contract will see 2d3's algorithms evaluated for use in detecting and tracking other flying vehicles from an airborne
camera, effectively allowing a UAV to see other aircraft much in the same way as a human pilot. The pilot project is valued at $100,000 and
will span a period of 6 months.

Successful results will put 2d3 at the forefront of "Sense and Avoid" technology. This technology paves the way for UAVs to safely
operate in US and UK national airspace alongside regular air traffic, opening up possible new markets for unmanned commercial aviation."

Today's news article and the RNS show the high profile OMG have in this area of research.

What does the share price do? Go down of course. I think very few investors and even fewer market makers know anything about OMG and its potential.

[smarkmmm] 11/2/2010 11:15

"More than 150 cameras shipped in first 90 days"

Back of the envelope calculations imply sales c.£1.5m pa at the same rate based on £19500 for an 8 camera system.