Oxford Metrics Share Discussion Threads

[bbonsall] 14/12/2009 21:33

Radon
It is not fair to say 500,000 shares dumped. Look at the trades on ADVFN and you can see someone sold 260,000 just after 2pm (which was actually reported much later). This caused the dramatic markdown just after 2pm, but there followed quite a flurry of buying including one purchase of 100,000 and the share price began to recover. So over 170,000 of the 500,000 were buys.

[radon] 14/12/2009 21:14

500 000 shares dumped today. I think there must be some kind of overhang, somebody looking to get out. This must be what has been pinning the share price back lately, despite the results and the recent announcement.

[adam] 10/12/2009 16:09

I bought back into these (last time was 2005). They have net current assets now of £8m, with some of the trade creditors likely to be accruals (i.e. non-cash). Even so, stripping from market cap of already cheap £14m (68.3m shares) you get £6m. For £26m turnover and some blue chip customers that is scary cheap.

[boraki] 10/12/2009 08:23

Very undervalued......

[bbonsall] 05/12/2009 14:11

Perhaps the market's view of the new businesses, Yotta and 2d3 is that they are still loss making, therefore dragging profitability of the whole business down at the moment.
Personally I think that is a short sighted view because all new ventures need time and money to turn them into a success. 2d3 is an especially exciting prospect. Also, the Microsoft licence could lead to new and profitable income streams.
The current share price values the company at only £12.4 million, take away cash and it's only £9.6 million. It seems paltry for a company that has no debts, a turnover of £26 million and is profitable and pays a dividend.

[radon] 04/12/2009 21:32

Bit of a slump. Any ideas?

Zero buying/selling on results day.

[bbonsall] 25/11/2009 17:18

Ahead of results next week. It is a good sign there is buying instead of selling. There is always somebody who knows what is coming.

[ukinvestor220] 25/11/2009 16:04

some buyers about today

[investinggarden] 12/11/2009 10:53

Hold recommendation from Growth Company Investor

[gengulphus] 26/10/2009 22:11

As to MMs reacting to supply and demand, I was demonstrating an equality of trades therefore not leading to price pressure either way.

Market makers adjust prices to try to achieve a balance of trades - they don't want to accumulate a significant position in the shares, either long or short, and the only way they can do that is to achieve a balance of trades.

So the only real conclusion that you can draw from the balance of trades that you've observed is that the market makers have been successful in their price-adjusting on this occasion; they've moved the price in such a way as to achieve a balance of trades.

Gengulphus

[darlocst] 26/10/2009 21:28

bbonsall - the GBP/USD wasn't as favourable in H2 and margins may have also been squeezed.

Cash collection doesn't have to track profits, for example cash levels can be improved running down the amount of stock they hold or by collecting cash from customers in a shorter time frame.

Cash isn't really a worry for OMG so whilst its good what they really need to produce is some real revenue growth. If they can start to deliver that then OMG could be an exciting story again.

[bbonsall] 26/10/2009 14:58

darlocst

Thanks for that. Just thought it odd that full year expectations should only be 0.90p when half year was that already. Do you think it means secod half will be lucky to break even then? If so how have they increased cash in the bank during second half?

[darlocst] 26/10/2009 13:02

bbonsall

what OMG actually said was:

"Trading in the second half of the year was similar to that seen in the first half in terms of revenue mix and market conditions. As a result, full year turnover is expected to be in excess of £26m generating full year profits broadly in line with market expectations."

Market expectations are:

Daniel Stewart EPS = 0.90p
Evolution Securities Ltd EPS = 0.90p

I am not sure why you expect EPS to come in near 2p.

It should also be noted that results have also benefited from GBP weakness versus USD, once you look at the results on a constant currency basis the underlying business has clearly done worse than an initial read of the results would suggest.

As for the MM's, you aren't going to see the full picture just by going off the printed trades I'm afraid.

[bbonsall] 26/10/2009 12:33

darlocst

Sorry to question your analysis, but OMG already announced first half results on 23 June which yielded 0.96p per share profits for 6 months. They have just said second half will be about the same so doesn't that make eps of nearly 2p? Because the interims lead to a 6 month calculation of eps I have seen too many commentators using that figure as though it is for a full year. Shows clearly where much false information arises.
As to MMs reacting to supply and demand, I was demonstrating an equality of trades therefore not leading to price pressure either way.

[smarkmmm] 26/10/2009 12:32

Not sure how reliable those forecasts are - OMG has already achieved 0.9p at the interims:

"The Group reports a pre-tax profit of £0.9m (H108: £1.2m), after non-recurring restructuring costs of £0.2m and a £0.2m loss made by the acquired Yotta MVS business in the first half. Excluding these costs, on a like-for-like basis overall pre-tax profit was slightly ahead of last year's performance. Diluted Earnings per Ordinary share for the first half of 0.88p compares with 1.40p for the same period last year."

[darlocst] 26/10/2009 11:45

bbonsall - what are you talking about?

MM's are just making a market, responding to supply & demand, not manipulating the price.

OMG is forecast to do 0.9p EPS this year, that puts it on a PE of 24, falling to a PE of 19 next year (EPS forecast @ 1.15p).

That doesn't look cheap in my book, especially with little to no growth forecast.

[bbonsall] 26/10/2009 09:51

Following the link with Microsoft and the positive trading update the market reacted positively, taking the share price up to 28p. Now, inexorably the MMs are painstakingly bringing the share price back to where it was before the good news. This being done on low volume with no justification. How can this morning's sells totalling 34000 shares cause the price to drop over 7%? Since the good news there have been 247000 shares bought and 238000 sold. Looks like a balance to me so the price ought to have stabilized around the height reached. Is it possible the MMs have some friends (institutions?) who have told them they want the price lowered to where it was, so they can buy cheaply? To hell with the poor PIs who bought 10 days ago at 28p. Watch this space! Just IMHO.
I bought over 2 years ago at 40p and held through the rise and fall because I believe this is a good well run company with growth prospects and no debts. The current market cap is less than half of turnover and if they make £1.9 million profit the PE is now just 8.

[garth] 20/10/2009 09:31

Positive trading update out...

[abbey8] 19/10/2009 08:20

hopefully we get some feed back from USA on the reactions, demand, and contracts?

[chillichap] 18/10/2009 19:39

Vicon are showing a new device based on the SenseCam technology at the annual Neuroscience Conference in Chicago on 17-21 October

Here is the link to their stand:



Product/Service Category
Cameras, Digital
Motion Analysis
Video Tracking Systems

[abbey8] 18/10/2009 18:27

Thank you CC,let us hope it will be good this week end up in the US.

[chillichap] 17/10/2009 16:26

News all over the place

[chillichap] 17/10/2009 15:26

Or OXB abbey ;) - they sit next to each other on my trading screen

[abbey8] 17/10/2009 13:57

i think some investors got mixed up, put their money in ODX( Omega Dia) by mistake.