Oxford Instruments Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 22/1/2015 12:17

So not a growth stock and certainly not an income stock, so why the heck have I been holding it all these years?

[alter ego] 22/1/2015 11:56

Comments by Investec as published in The Guardian

"Today’s third quarter update points to full-year adjusted pretax profit 20% short of our below-consensus estimate (and 26% below for the second half of 2015), which is a further significant disappointment following very poor interims in November.

Oxford Instruments is a ‘growth stock’ becalmed by very unhelpful trading conditions and it risks being de-rated, due to the delayed resumption of growth, margins that are going backwards and substantial balance sheet leverage. Our estimates, valuation and recommendation are all under review."

[alter ego] 22/1/2015 11:46

the one encouraging statement today is
We expect to see the Group grow next year and beyond as we execute on our nanotechnology strategy.

Of course there's still a chance this optimism will be misplaced but £4 looks as pessimistic as it can be so is probably just wishful thinking.

I prefer to wait of the dust to settle and await the actual results before trying to value the stock.

[wad collector] 22/1/2015 11:40

What did you say your name was ?

[billy_liar] 22/1/2015 10:51

Looking for an entry point below £4 in next 12 months. Don't think I'll be disappointed.

[pugugly] 22/1/2015 10:49

Taking 2015 estimates into account it would appear that normalised eps will be back to the level in 2012. so agree with AE: view above. Realistic p/e should be lower at say 14 - 15 particularly given the level of DEBT - According to refs is was £140M in 2014 accounts [88.7%]

Need however to do more research on products as to what percentage are MUST have (i.e. unique with no easily substitutable competitors] so far as customers are concerned and which are at major risk for competitive activity.

[cafe tabou] 22/1/2015 10:24

I'm in below £8.

[abcd1234] 22/1/2015 09:32

what % of revenue does Russia account for ??
thanks

[wad collector] 22/1/2015 09:07

Arrgh down £3.
22 January 2015

Release date: 7am 22(nd) January 2015

Oxford Instruments plc Quarter 3 Trading Update

22 January 2015

Oxford Instruments plc, a leading provider of high technology tools and systems for industry and research, today issues a Quarter 3 Trading Update which covers the period from 1st October 2014 to date.

In the third quarter organic orders and revenues were similar to the same period last year. In addition, Andor the acquisition made in the fourth quarter last year continues to perform well.

Significant orders, both taken in the year and forecast to be taken in Quarter 4, are for delivery to Russia. Recent tightening in the application of trade sanctions and, in particular the cancelling of certain export licences mean we no longer expect to convert theses orders to sales. We now assume that no sales can be made to Russia for the remainder of this year and we are also assuming no sales to Russia next year.

In addition, our forecast of recovery in the Japanese market has not yet occurred. The effects of Russia and Japan, combined with weaker trading in our short lead-time Industrial Analysis business means that, whilst we expect revenues for the second half to be ahead of the same period last year, we believe they will fall short of market expectations. We now anticipate adjusted profit before tax for the current year will be approximately GBP35 million.

In response to these challenges we are taking action to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Subject to consultation this may result in the closure of some sites and a reduction in headcount. This project aims to produce a cost saving of GBP6 million in the next financial year. The one off, cash costs of achieving these savings are expected to be in the region of GBP5 million which will be taken as an exceptional item in the current year.

Whilst it is not possible to predict when the situation in Russia will recover, order intake in Japan is improving. We expect to see the Group grow next year and beyond as we execute on our nanotechnology strategy.

End


A quick look looks like a classic market overreaction to me , so in cavalier fashion just added a lump at 808.

[alter ego] 22/1/2015 09:05

trading update worse than I expected:
www.investegate.co.uk/oxford-instruments--oxig-/rns/trading-statement/201501220700208176C/

In addition, our forecast of recovery in the Japanese market has not yet occurred. The effects of Russia and Japan, combined with weaker trading in our short lead-time Industrial Analysis business means that, whilst we expect revenues for the second half to be ahead of the same period last year, we believe they will fall short of market expectations. We now anticipate adjusted profit before tax for the current year will be approximately £35 million.

back of envelope calculation suggest eps will be around 47p so currently on p/e of about 17.4. Still looks overvalued in the short term IMO.

[small crow] 15/1/2015 11:57

Someone's interested. Fascinating co that would make a useful target for someone such as GE?

[tratante] 06/1/2015 07:23

Thanks for your thoughts, Alter. Thought had a bit more in it, but hard to tell.

[alter ego] 05/1/2015 15:48

tratante, I may not be totally objective here as I recently sold my holding believing OXIG to be overvalued. However, looking at the forecast for year end 3/15, it shows expected eps of 61.7p and at around 1200p the p/e is still 19.5 - hardly good value for a stock that is expected to show a fall in earnings this year and lacking much of a dividend yield to support the share price

Given the general market it's not surprising to me that the share price is showing signs of weakness.

[small crow] 05/1/2015 15:43

No, but familiar daily pattern...

[tratante] 05/1/2015 15:25

Anyone know any material reason why this is falling back today?

[wad collector] 31/12/2014 10:33

Not quite!

[wad collector] 24/12/2014 20:15

Promising run again this week ; will it touch £13 before the year is out?

[bamboo2] 19/12/2014 09:14

Potential for INV H&S.

[wad collector] 18/12/2014 16:02

Agree ; hate watching paper gains drift away untapped..

[alter ego] 18/12/2014 15:03

wad collector - also tempted but succumbed. Will aim to buy again if/when share price drifts down as it appears inclined to do. Not my normal style but short term outlook isn't exciting and a profit is a profit.

[wad collector] 18/12/2014 14:52

Up 5% today on no visible OXIG-specific news , tempted to take a 2 month 33% profit .The narrow spread is appealing to the trader in me , but I am going to sit on hands for now ; this is a quality company in a good niche. The yield is low but well covered.

[small crow] 17/11/2014 15:48

Strange patterns of trades in this stock. Anyone know what might be happening?

[wad collector] 17/11/2014 13:50

A flurry of broker adjustments , FWIW.


Liberum , Beayfort and Berenberg still say Buy but reduced targets to 1200 and 1360. JPM overweight but target down to 1360 .
Numis say add to 1350 , Singer Hold to 1350
Investec are thinking about it .

I don't why I am posting this really , they would appear to be guessing...

[wad collector] 21/10/2014 09:16

The quick 10% has come , but I think I will go for the slow 50% instead...