Osb Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 11/5/2016 16:28

It could be the "Remainers" scaremongering about a collapse in house prices in the event of Brexit. Since there is absolutely no evidence to support this conjecture AND Brexit is unlikely to happen - I think any fall caused by Brexit scares is likely to reverse.

[edwardt] 11/5/2016 14:46

2018 pe of 5.5 and a prospective divi of 4.5% - getting my attention - is this in some brexit basket, explaining the fall??

[woodcutter] 11/5/2016 11:14

well i thought the update was very good too and i continue to hold. Investing is about patience, as woodford would acknowledge, and at some point once sector consolidation begins then i feel the rewards will come through. The loan book appears to be decent quality and further progress will only add to earnings so i'm here for the long term barring any major disasters.

woody

[future financier] 11/5/2016 09:57

I used to be vary wary of OSB and its management - but I am happy to have been proven wrong as they are navigating the turbulent waters of BTL and other property lending very adroitly whilst pulling off some astute purchases of loan books.

[cwa1] 11/5/2016 09:32

Well, I thought this morning's update was satisfactory and confident sounding:-



Highlights

Strong financial and operational performance has continued

Net loans & advances grew by £460m during the first quarter, driven by further strong organic origination and accelerated by acquisitions of first and second charge residential mortgage portfolios totalling £131m

Margins on £627m of organic origination in the quarter remained strong. Net interest margin in the first quarter was in line with our expectations and we remain confident in our guidance of around 300bps for the full year

Cost:income ratio remains excellent. We anticipate the full year ratio to be in line with or slightly higher than the 26% achieved in 2015, as previously guided

Despite the introduction of the bank tax surcharge, return on equity was strong in the first quarter and we are on track to deliver a return comfortably ahead of our financial target

The Group has drawn £576m under the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to date. We are targeting a minimum drawdown of c. £700m in 2016

Business growth continues to be supported by a robust capital position
Andy Golding, CEO of OneSavings Bank, said:

"I am extremely pleased with the performance of the business so far this year. We achieved strong levels of new business in the first quarter with £627m of organic origination at attractive margins, supported by acquisitions of £131m.

As expected, March was a record month as we fulfilled heightened demand to accelerate mortgage completions ahead of stamp duty changes. Intermediary focus has now returned to new applications and we are confident in achieving our full year growth targets.

We remain confident in the outlook for 2016."

[hutch_pod] 29/4/2016 22:41

I thought the same and I guess people realised..

[maloneyt] 28/4/2016 13:21

How come all the banks are down but OSB is up on a market down day ?

[cwa1] 28/4/2016 10:37

Here. Watching. Waiting. Nothing new to report really....

[maloneyt] 28/4/2016 10:26

Where is everyone. Any views on this. It seems to have recovered well this morning

[uhound] 19/4/2016 15:47

Not so sure about the comment "professional landlords still investing".

Me and a lot other professional landlords I know with large portfolios are looking to start selling.

The restrictions on lending criteria coming in later this year will also dampen demand for BTL mortgages also.

Property market already showing signs of slowing, so I think OSB and the other challenger banks are going to come under pressure.

[woodcutter] 19/4/2016 13:53

It's interesting the view of investors on the future out comes of the challenger banks and the likelihood of a decline in BTL business. With savings rates at all time lows and ECB exacerbating this by introducing negative interest rates i see further growth in this sector. Indeed I thought about adding to my own residential letting portfolio recently but have decided against doing so as i'm a pensioner now.

Notwithstanding, many of my younger friends are entering the BTL market for the first time as returns on other investments aren't worth considering and in the longer term they see capital appreciation in the property market as the best and safest return.

There's no legacy issues as with the major banks and even in the event of a slow down in loan approval the exisitng loan book will provide a solid dividend cover going forward. There will also be the continued disruption to the historical banks as challengers encroach more and more on the SME lending sector.

Finally as growth in the sector begins to dissipate, as it inevitable will, there'll be sector consolidation through acquisition, in order to drive scale.

For those who are patient this should be a very rewarding investment. I've taken a contrarian view and now have a number of challenger banks in my portfolio.

aimho woody

[aishah] 30/3/2016 09:21

Challenger banks breathe sigh of relief over buy-to-let changes
The Bank of England has today revealed plans to clamp down on the buy-to-let market, setting out strict new rules for banks underwriting buy-to-let mortgage contracts.

"Investec’s Ian Gordon told City A.M. there has been a “sigh of relief at the largely sensible and pragmatic approach” by the Bank to raise the underwriting standards of a minority of banks, noting that publicly-traded specialist lenders Aldermore, OneSavingsBank, Shawbrook and Virgin Money already comply with the new rules."

hxxp://www.cityam.com/237681/bank-of-england-clamps-down-on-buy-to-let-market-with-strict-new-rules-for-mortgage-underwriters

[aishah] 18/3/2016 09:11

UK challenger banks: OneSavings Bank, Aldermore, Shawbrook among the lenders seeing a bounce-back

Challenger banks are bouncing back after months of share price weakness, with the markets rewarding smaller listed lenders for posting double-digit increases in profits, lending and customer numbers.

[happygolucky] 17/3/2016 20:44

I agree with the comment about professional buy-to-let landlords. In my experience, professional landlords are not happy about all the tax changes penalising them, but they still see property as the best asset class to hold and so are not being deterred from further investments in the sector.

All good news for OSB IMHO and why I see a return to 350p+ in the medium term.

[dros1] 17/3/2016 12:02

One Savings Bank
PM
(Boncoeur -- gender issue)
PM
Top fo the 250 board this morning
OneSavings Bank PLC (OSB:LSE): Last: 286.46, up 32.26 (+12.69%), High: 292.80, Low: 263.00, Volume: 2.03m
PM
Emoticon
PM
Year end figs well ahead of expectations
PM
Which is welcome news for Trader Gordon, for one
PM
Ian at Investec
PM
We see OSB as a reassuringly predictable story which delivers extraordinary returns on a consistent basis. As such, it is something of a mystery to us as to why analysts/investors have been so fickle; the stock fell c.40% in 4 months ahead of today’s numbers! H2 2015 Reported EPS of 19.1p is 1% below our “top-of-range” forecast (19.36p) but 22% ahead of Bloomberg consensus (15.7p). The FY15 u/l RoE is 32% with a cost:income ratio of just 26%. Trading on 5.5x 2017e EPS, we expect this stock to fly today! BUY.

PM
22% beat -- impressive
PM
Before today, our H2 2015 EPS forecast of 19.36p was 24% ahead of Bloomberg consensus (15.7p). Perhaps more importantly, our existing forecasts of 39.8p in 2016e and 45.9p in 2017e are ahead by 13% and 8%; we think today’s results should drive material consensus upgrades.
Further net loan growth of £0.2bn in Q4 2015 takes the total to £1.2bn (+31%) for FY15, a notable step-up from £0.9bn (+29%) in 2014. We currently model slightly “slower” growth in 2016e – a mere £1.1bn (+22%)!
As guided, NIM continued to improve; up 18bps YoY to 3.09% in 2015 as OSB manages record demand for buy-to-let mortgages through price. Investors really should not confuse the professional buy-to-let market with the “dinner party landlord” segment where the supply and demand pricing dynamics are entirely different. Unsurprisingly, OSB enters 2016 with a record pipeline.
The CET1 capital ratio has strengthened by 60bps HoH in H2 2015 to 11.6% and the FY15 dividend is 8.7p (vs consensus 8.0p, us 8.5p); a yield of 3.4%.
As a reminder, we continue to believe that Aldermore (Buy) – our top pick – offers a more transparent, defensive and diversified story which, on a 12 month view is likely to deliver material outperformance against every UK bank in our coverage. However, OneSavings has now displaced it as the “cheapest̶1;, trading on just 7.5x 2015e EPS, or, perhaps more remarkably, just 5.5x 2017e.
Buy rec and 380p target price reaffirmed. Detailed forecasts under review.

[birotop] 17/3/2016 09:17

Thanks....

[aishah] 17/3/2016 09:15

Have bought many in the sector recently including here. Very good results. Peel Hunt reiterate BUY and 360p target.

[mikeja] 17/3/2016 09:11

Nobody else interested ? Not a bad little investment.

[mikeja] 17/3/2016 07:30

We have entered 2016 with our strongest ever pipeline, and application and completion volumes are showing sustained growth. We look forward with confidence".

[mikeja] 17/3/2016 07:19

Those look like seriously nice results. Eps of 34.8,way ahead of forecasts. ROCE of 32%. On p/e of 7 looking seriously undervalued despite headwinds.And a yield of 4%.

[stoph] 16/3/2016 22:54

Thanks Calahan,

Sharescope also have it down as tomorrow but I thought that this was based on last year's date as I have seen no announcement

[betelgeuse1] 16/3/2016 12:15

pronblem is its only got 1 business line - BTL loans

Government has killed it

This years results will be good

But NEXT YEAR WILL BE NASTY

Other challengers are diversified this one aint

And Flowers dumping some of its shares, still has 53% to bail out of . Ouch!!

[betelgeuse1] 16/3/2016 10:45

SHAW also up

[betelgeuse1] 16/3/2016 10:42

going to 340p

[calahan] 16/3/2016 09:18

@ STOPH - "When are the results expected"

TD Direct says prelim's are due tomorrow, 17th March 2016. This is also the date given on the OSB website under the "Shareholder Information" section. hxxp://www.osb.co.uk/