Orosur Mining Share Discussion Threads

[abc125] 22/7/2016 00:25

Good post 2sporrans. Omi were the first to intiate cuts following the gold crash in 2013. A good move imo which ensured their survival. I think they are in a better position now than they were then:they now have operational efficiency, the Waymar asset and more focused exploration and reserve replacement in Uruguay (I note Don Tito could hold up to 500k oz of gold).

As for the gold price I think it is in a new bull market which should last several years. Following the Brexit vote gold broke out of a three month range and has recently back tested that break out at $1310. I'm now looking for gold to head towards $1500 by Xmas followed by a 3-6 month correction down to maybe $1250.

The next upleg following the $1250 low will be the longest and strongest - a Wave 3 in Elliot Wave parlance.

[2sporrans] 21/7/2016 21:52

It turns out we last reached these closing prices in April 2013 when we had the big gold crash from $1500 to $1300."

That was a bizarre episode in the Orosur saga abc125.
Prior to that fall in the POG there was what looked [with hindsight anyway] like a pump and dump following Evil Kneviel's first stake being bought; the share price surged from mid 30's to 49p, then back to whence it had been.

Next there was the POG drop and the share price initially fell a modest 5 or 6p, holding on about 30p as much as a week after the POG reached ~$1,300/oz.

Salazar had taken over as acting CEO, Fowler having departed.
He and his team decided to do the prudent thing and put the then teed up development of San Gregorio Deeps on hold + downsize the company with much reduced open pit production.....mainly to save cash, reduce costs and not allow OMI to slide into substantial debt.
It was the news release of these very sensible measures that precipitated an exodus of OMI investors that had not been fazed by the POG drop.
A wholly irrational response!!
Could have understood it if they'd sold out immediately the POG dropped well below the then critical $1500/oz level; that being the long term level Orosur had based their 2012 business strategy upon.
But they sold on release of a sound survival strategy.

Then the share price collapsed to as low as 7p over the ensuing weeks to mid June 2013 as the POG suffered that second leg sell down to ~$1200/oz.

Back then, though Arenal had been a proven success for fully a year, the Orosur cash burn had been horrendous and hard to account for.
Remember the - was it $13-mn - written off on Talca?
The management team was undergoing a complete overhaul and the new one of largely unproven calibre.
It was anyone's guess how long until the POG bottomed out and at what level - ultimately supported by physical demand.

Now, the Salazar team is proven as effectively proactive, efficient and acting in shareholders best interests.
Mirabeau!!
This along with an upward POG momentum and a far more confident ambiance in general.
While the higher quality Uruguayan reserves situation ain’t too compelling as the developed part of Arenal nears exhaustion, there is it’s extension along with SG deeps to follow and the [ex Waymar] Anza prospect holds a lot of promise.
I’m expecting the Q4 ~16th August results to feature net cash > $5-mn and hoping for Q1 projections for this to increase substantially.

So, it seems to me that even if the POG goes sideways over the next few months, OMI will probably see its share price spike into the mid 20s during this period.
For 40+p to be achieved, as a minimum, I’m looking for the POG to get above $1,400/oz for at least a few weeks. Think Salazar will also have to commit to recommence open pits production and jack up to 50-55k too.

Orosur remains a high risk/geared play on the POG; methinks one of the better managed small miners though.


Cheers
TS

[abc125] 21/7/2016 17:37

I had a good look at the recent cluster of closes above 17p. It turns out we last reached higher closing prices in April 2013 when we had the big gold crash from $1500 to $1300.

The recent new three year highs coupled with the rise since April more or less guarantees (in my book) that Orosur will be back in the 40-50p range within 6 months after one or two more tests of the 18-20p region.

[hazl] 21/7/2016 13:08

kitco

'The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the ECB’s continued loose monetary policy. Gold priced in euros is slightly positive on the day, last trading at €1,197.55, up 0.22% on the day. The overall gold market remains are relatively flat on the day with August Comex gold futures last trading at $1,319.20 an ounce, down 0.01% on the day.'

[abc125] 21/7/2016 11:56

Yes agreed, QE trumps rates.I just repeated the headline I read this morning:rate announcement. Let's see what transpires. This is their first meeting post Brexit. Italian banks are in a mess and stocks there are down 30%.

[hazl] 21/7/2016 11:41

Again been fascinating watching FRES go from negative to positive today.

[hazl] 21/7/2016 11:38

YES AGREE I have been expecting a reversal based on data from EU today...

we will see.

IMO

[2sporrans] 21/7/2016 11:28

"ECB rate announcement today at 12.30pm"

Rates matter but maybe not as much as QE.

As long as the QE programme keeps going bond yields will be kept low and maybe driven even lower, regardless of token changes in CB base rates. ECB $85-bn/month + Jap. ~$70-bn/m of wholly price insensitive buying is primary determinant for a high credit rated bonds globally; even in USA.

Spreads are tightening if anything.....dirt cheap corporate borrowing ongoing...share buybacks, again price insensitive asset buying.

Yet, deflationary pressures continue to squeeze; growth forecasts pruned yet again.
The opportunity cost for holding gold trimmed even further.

Ironically, to the extent that Gold is an inflation hedge, this deflation promotes buying it as a sort of cheap insurance. Monetary response to initial inflation [should it manifest] probably slow and weak. By the time rates and yields get going, the inflation genie out of the bottle and gold price indexing with general inflation.

Sure, POG may 'correct' further but the bull case and trend remain well in tact.

Further 20k repurchase @ 15.6p.

[hazl] 21/7/2016 10:14

I keep a core holding here richgit but accept that some people trade....and indeed why not?

[richgit] 21/7/2016 09:52

At some point we need to witness far above 1 Million shares trading,and hopefully that day -stronger hands taking the the T+ closers.

Then we will have some hindsight.

[abc125] 21/7/2016 09:26

Omi mid price tagged the 20 day moving average this morning at 15.5p. On four occasions since April this has provided solid support. On one occasion in late May it did penetrate the 20 day but stopped at the 50 sma.

I think we could be close to a low imho.

p.s. ECB rate announcement today at 12.30pm.

[hazl] 21/7/2016 09:16

get ready for the next leg up,in my opinion....

[richgit] 20/7/2016 14:44

Maybe Italy will Puke up its Gold,if it hasn`t already.

Let`s see if some Magic answers appear for their Bank problems.

No doubt some will sell every last asset into this central planner engineered mirage,and then just continue to lie until all can see their nose expansions.

[2sporrans] 20/7/2016 04:09

Indeed so.
From the horse's mouth:
"Orosur’s Q4 and FY 2016 results will be announced on or around August 16th 2016"

[abc125] 19/7/2016 18:26

I think they've previously stated they won't be putting out production updates. So I guess we will have to wait until mid August.

[2sporrans] 19/7/2016 16:25

Q4 production results, to end May should be known now.
Will Orosur hold off release until go with the Full Year Fiscal job in August?

With the POG stabilising, possible release or 'leak' of production figures, dip in the OMI share price and toppy look to global equities, is this an opportunity to top up?
Hope so as repurchased a 20k share slice sold 18.3 [last POG surge] for 17.2.

[hazl] 19/7/2016 11:48

gold on the rise

[gaaston] 19/7/2016 11:24

Yep ~ Joe Bloggs and co are now well into buying physical gold, so say the bullion houses.

[richgit] 16/7/2016 15:49

Must be one of the worst planned Coups in History.

It all suspiciously falls right into Emperor Erdogan` lap.

[tom111] 15/7/2016 23:21

yes chaos in Turkey shots fired air port planes diverted

[blueball] 15/7/2016 22:11

Military coup in Turkey watch gold rise to $1400 next week.

[hazl] 15/7/2016 16:18

SOUND FAMILIAR POST ABOVE?