Orosur Mining Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 12/3/2015 15:30

A more insightful interview than many we hear.
Had never heard of Lorelles util yesterday and I thought I heard that production will start in a few days but line quality not all that good.

[proactivest] 12/3/2015 08:41

Video interview with CEO Ignacio Salazar



Ignacio Salazar, the chief executive of Orosur Mining (LON:OMI), says the AIM-listed miner is now slightly ahead of its original production and cost plans at its San Gregorio mine in Uruguay.
Orosur produced 13,760 ounces of gold in the three months to February at a cash cost of US$876 per ounce, 11% lower than the previous quarter. Total production so far this year is now 40,298 oz, which it said has put it on course to meet the top end of its 50,000-55,000 oz guidance range.

[cerrito] 11/3/2015 10:50

Agree that steady as she goes
Another figure they forgot to mention was the price they got for the gold.
I was surprised that the $3m investment in new tailings dam will only last for 18 months ie in v rough figures depreciation of $2mpa but I guess this is consistent with total depreciation charges in each of the last 2 FY's of $19m.

[wigwammer] 11/3/2015 10:19

IS - I doubt they will pay a div at current pog, and it is true about the decommissioning provision. Given the facility has a replacement value of $70-80m I doubt anyone will be keen to mothball it soon however. I also suspect that if the pog sinks lower they will rationalise costs and capex to build funds for potential hibernation. I have seen little/nothing to suggest this isn't possible.Agustusgloop - I agree, I doubt cash gen was high, due in particular to the tailings capex taken. The co do also say (but you fail to mention):"Orosur expects its Q4 2015 results to exceed those in the previous quarters of 2015 due to an increase in ore mined and higher grade from Arenal both driving up production and reducing costs, the commissioning of the Laureles open pit mine and the ceasing of expenditures related to commissioning the new tailings dam."

[augustusgloop] 11/3/2015 09:51

Ironstorm,

I don't believe that their quoted all in sustaining costs are reliable.
They are less than $200 per ounce above stated cash costs.

Unless they have changed the way that they calculate cash costs then we can take the cash costs over the last few years - add $200 and get the all in cost.

This comes to about $1,000 per ounce - over the period of producing 400,000 oz.

So they should have generated a total of 400,000 * $300 of funds available to shareholders. = $120,000,000
Instead they raised money!

-------------

Something clearly wrong

[augustusgloop] 11/3/2015 09:34

IronStorm 11 Mar'15 - 08:31 - 13763 of 13766 1 0

All in line which has to mean a healthy increase in cash balances and more to come from the last quarter.

--------------------

I wouldn't bet on that

They have a history of mentioning cash balances when they improve and a history of forgetting to do so when they don't.

This time no mention.

[ironstorm] 11/3/2015 09:31

Hahahah - you are most welcome.

One other comment, on here recently, has focused on whether we should rely on cash cost - especially as there would be clean up costs which would soak up any profit and also new investment to keep the pit going.

On the first of these I believe Simon Caukwell through discussions with the company uncovered the £5m+ provision in the accounts for de-commissioning - so in part that issue goes away.

On the AISC against cash cost it seems we can generate over £10m in cash from the current operations which should be sufficient to keep the company upright and able to invest in new production such as Arenal Deeps. As well as prospect at our other sites.

Indeed if this was husbanded prudently then I see no reason why a divi should not be forthcoming (I live in hope).

All of this without the massive spike in POG discussed occasionally on this site.

Finally the achievement of target production and cash costs targets is something of an anomaly at this end of the market - I would have thought the market would value it. Clearly not as much as I do!

[wigwammer] 11/3/2015 09:27

Yes, bit too much conspiracy theory at work here - either the fed is at it if you're a bull, or the omi bod is at it if you're a bear.In October 2012 omi laid out a plan to pay a div of one third of FCF, assuming pog above $1500.6 months later, pog below $1500. 12 months later, pog = $1200.Therefore, no div.It's not a conspiracy, and the co should be examined just like any other.

[edmundshaw] 11/3/2015 09:00

Thank you, IronStorm, for a post about OMI.

[ironstorm] 11/3/2015 08:31

Well another steady as she goes production update.

All in line which has to mean a healthy increase in cash balances and more to come from the last quarter.

Even with Gold where it is am hoping the market notices cashflow not much less than Market Cap.

[richgit] 10/3/2015 23:05

2011 ,
the world's largest physical gold ETF, holds about 1,267.8 metric tons of gold, all of which is stored with HSBC in London.



The inference of further HSBC news,is that they are covering up a potential Gold Default-and how convenient that Gold has so coincidentally fallen in price
whilst they close their London Gold vaults.

This is something else-they cannot do again,so they are gradually running out of road for these manipulations,as they must be getting desperate to get their hands on Physical Gold, without which to supply Physical Buyers at Paper set prices...the whole scam would blow up.

Maguire suggested the Physical buying at $1200 was ferocious,and maybe too
ferocious for supply .

If this is all the underlying truth they get a shorter term reprieve,yet
those receiving default $Dollars will simply buy their Gold again with someone
trustworthy.

Nobody should trust any of these Gangster Banks to hold their Gold,as I noted
that HSBC did something similar yet in the US 2009.



.

[richgit] 10/3/2015 12:50

wigwammer

I will leave that to others

I don't post to promote OMI,I post to remind others why we choose Gold and
a percentage game of Gold stocks battered beyond all belief that being valued at the exact extreme opposite to Baltimore in the FTSE 100,could do a fraction of what Baltimore did in its fictional value to cuckoo land and multiply many times for real reasons - and not fictional ones.
.


I don`t see any true "Bears" just those that may have their £100 per point lunch money spreadbet short and good luck to them,as they know the T+ traders will close at a loss because their timing was wrong (again).

I reckon the "bears" ie BigT, Elban and all His usernames and members of the team, are merely trying to evaluate when they go long and appear on here with their new usernames ramping this to the moon, and that`s why they cannot keep their eyes off this BB.

I know what you know, maybe a little more, and less than Simon C.

Let`s wait to see what Management say,and for Myself I hopefully haven`t
finished buying OMI, so any bargain of definingly positive news would be welcome.

[wigwammer] 10/3/2015 10:20

The bear is rattled.No one mentioned "a bit of inflation".Re your points on omi - numbers, facts, information?

[augustusgloop] 10/3/2015 10:06

wigwammer 10 Mar'15 - 06:58 - 13755 of 13758 0 0

It's a funny board where:

1) the resident bull is a troll
2) inflation is bad for gold
3) consensus has "value = 0" on a debt free, cash generative, big asset co with probably every capacity to idle assets and wait

--------------

Wow - how much misunderstanding can you have in one post?

High inflation and deflation are both good for gold - because gold represents stability in turbulent times.
So in a period of threatened deflation - a bit of inflation will be BAD for gold - because it moves the economy towards normality = higher interest rates = higher real cost of holding a non-producing asset (gold).

OMI is not cash generative - that's an illusion.
All the cash that they generate needs to be put back into CAPEX - look at the history here.
They do not have a big asset.
No small miner can just idle the asset.
The cost of closing would probably wipe out all their cash - then there's the cost of running on care and maintance and the Director's salaries + sundry overheads.

[wigwammer] 10/3/2015 09:46

Richgit. We get the idea. Lots of growth in fiat money, not much growth in gold supply, gold goes up.But it isn't happening. Judging by 2008, even if the events you describe were to come to pass, gold and other metals initially fall aggressively WITH the market as investors seek cash. The point is - stock valuations are in many cases, such as here, already below prior lows. The market is aware of the bad stuff. Would that make a lot of difference in a panic? Unlikely - but there may be worse places to be.Certainly, the unleveraged plays are likely to have a better chance of surviving. A large part of the AIC is visibly lower, and they aren't under pressure to raise cash. Hence, why I'm interested in omi.As an omi holder, you would be better off investigating and reporting the ability of the company to idle assets in the event of a further pog deterioration, than repeat the same gold bull stories we have heard on repeat for the last 10 years.I suspect the bears here don't really know how much cash this co could accumulate over the short term if push came to shove (I'm not talking about sustainable cash) or what the annualised cost of hibernating the assets would be. At the very least, discussion of such may add colour to the board.

[richgit] 10/3/2015 09:11

wigwammer.


If you have been in this game long enough,you will be very aware that what finally creates the bargains many fear to buy- are hapless T+traders that do not follow events and think they can guess a bottom on a 20day guess for stocks that have overall fallen for 3 years !!!.

Who do you think can afford to dump a stock like OMI ?

Usually the last T+ trader forced to take a loss,and that continues,whilst sometimes some long mops up their loss- which does not push the price higher,until the next true long buys stock when there isn't any on a plate .

Only guessing when many holders of the stock that are underwater will rush
to buy more can make a T+ come good,and not some other numbnut waiting to close
His/Her 7500 trades before others.

It is the price of Gold, and when it becomes completely obvious the Gold Cartel
have lost the plot and OMI provides more positive news, is when most holders that are underwater will buy more stock to hold.... and not on a T+20 punt.

I will buy more stock Myself,yet only when the time is right and the T+ have given up as We can buy all the way to 30p with no sweat,when the time is right

This is a stock that "could" multiply many times when the Market understands what is going to happen to Gold and why Gold will go far beyond $2000 in time.


OMI just have to muddle through the next few months,as I remind all we do not
need $2000 Gold or the potential $10000 Gold,as now $1300 will light the Market
up and $1400 will fire it up, yet it has to be when those levels will hold and
are beyond all the naked shorts in paper having any control.




Meanwhile we wait as the conspirators want us to ignore Bank Bailins,negative interest rates,the insolvency of the US,and all the trashed paper flooding
the World.
They want us to buy Gold Apple watches(lol)unaffordable property -and take on more and more debt to keep them in Power.

[richgit] 10/3/2015 08:43

jwe.

There is no false or invented conspiracy(I truly wish there were).

Even Greenspan states the US is insolvent,and that people should turn to Gold.


Look at the Austria situation where a non-risk rated Bank faces a bailin,and the ripples hit 9 other Banks and spreads to Germany- this Is no invented example of what else could happen,that they said "Could not" with that Bank and are saying with far far Bigger Banks.

Why is " Paper Gold" being hit whilst Gold heads into deficits ?

A case of go figure as Draghi floods more devaluing Euros ,and they all have to desperately try and hold (buy) the Markets up to make things appear there are no concerns !!



This looks like the last act of desperation whilst paper Gold can still have
some dictating to Physical, yet eventually We have Physical Gold dictating to paper.

There is something going on,and it certainly isn`t any surplus of paid for
Physical Gold as most in Euroland,Japan and many other parts of the World watch
Gold outperforming their Paper Currency and negative interest rates.

The flight to Gold by those that have any money to protect,is only being contained by keeping House prices and the Markets up,and most certainly not
negative interest rates and the pure ignorance of "Bailins"

The Fed are sat in their Fortress with a Million tonnes of snow waiting for an
avalanche,above them ,so they are trapped in what they do next as they fear the obscene amount in margin falling and triggering that avalanche

Will they trigger it by continuing to say "Interest rate increases" or by
the admittance they cannot afford any interest rate increase on those $Trillions ?

Watch the yo-yoing from the delinquent Fed speakers as they play the "May do"
"May not"


I wish it was different- We will all do,as some of us wait to glean news about
what is going on with HSBC and the GLD Gold.

One more unforeseen event and the Fraudulent Paper Gold Market is finished
in its ability to control Physical,and the percentages are that event is on its way this Summer.



We wait.

[wigwammer] 10/3/2015 06:58

It's a funny board where:1) the resident bull is a troll2) inflation is bad for gold3) consensus has "value = 0" on a debt free, cash generative, big asset co with probably every capacity to idle assets and wait

[jwe] 09/3/2015 17:14

Forget all Richgit`s conspiracy nonsense.What would concern me is the POG is weak at a point in time when the EU starting QE & ultra low inflation abounds.Once global QE finally stops & inflation picks up again the likely outcome for the POG is down

[bigtbigt] 09/3/2015 12:53

wigwammer - get used to it. He's the resident nutter, and he refuses to go away despite us asking him to for years. Most now have him filtered.

Please do not feed the troll.

[wigwammer] 09/3/2015 10:09

Jeez.. Conspiracy theory is dull.Please post about the stock, not weirdo theories.

[richgit] 09/3/2015 09:53

What becomes interesting to sit back and just watch,is that the shorts in
paper Gold have to suck in sufficient longs to later manipulate with some other
contrived nonsense so they can escape.
So they could be very vulnerable to any surprise event like the Swiss news or any other Black Swan.

If those longs don't appear in any mass (or if the World avoids this manipulated scam Comex) then maybe the shorts will have to kill each other off in fear of Physical Gold unless the Central Planners are saving Spains.Greece`s
Portugal`s,France`s hocked Gold for debt -to sell into Physical.

That would be the last assets from the West going -going- gone !!!


Meanwhile we will get news about the Physical exchanges which could start
their increasing liquidity dictating to paper and making life uncomfortable
for the shorts from those Hedge funds sucked in by JP Morgan et al,that are vulnerable.

The HSBC news will no doubt be buried if it is true,yet the consequences
will simmer like a smoking Daisycutter.

IMHO

OMI and many many others just have to patiently wait now, as We watch to see
if the Fed starts to back off from the interest rate increases that could destroy the Markets and the whole Fairy Tale.

Of course they could yet announce an almost nothing rate increase which may
be worse than- nothing.

The scenario going forward of Physical dictating to and attracting all looking
for a safe haven should mean Gold cannot do wrong whatever the situation

Deflation,inflation,Market collapse,trashed Paper,Bank bailins,War...what have I missed ?

[wigwammer] 09/3/2015 07:50

"If they stop producing, they will be insolvent within a few months."Of course they have overheads. They may also have a positive cash balance and an ability to rationalise the overheads.If these guys are as mercenary as suggested, surely they've worked out that a smaller income (rationalisation) is better than none at all (insolvency).What cash balance are you assuming and what overheads, and where are you getting the info please?

[augustusgloop] 09/3/2015 00:54

wigwammer

"If the pog goes down, don't they just idle the assets and wait for the pog to rise again?"

No - they have overheads.
If they stop producing, they will be insolvent within a few months.