Orcadian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[anley] 14/12/2022 12:03

BY the way - I think the company owes SHELL so my question is what happens if ORCA can't raise fresh funds?

What would be the position of the business and the licences?

[anley] 14/12/2022 12:00

ALBO - I do not disagree BUT that is not what the market is telling us hence the share price being what it is.

The problem for me as a former banker is the political risk of the project and the tightness of capital to be tied up inside a Labour government.

ALBO - let me ask you this " Would you finance this project and tie-up a banks capital for more than 10++ years when there are few risk takers around?

[albo] 13/12/2022 09:22

Anley, you are being overly negative. Licences do tend to be extended. Orcadian has a significant amount of PROVED RESERVES. These barrells are valuable. Valuable to Orcadian and valuable to the UK in relation to it's energy transition and energy security.

Euclid, the capex cost can be cut by 75% under the ownership of a uk tax paying entity. That could bring the capex required down to less than $200m. Not bad going for 160mmbblls of 2P/2C!!!!

[euclid5] 12/12/2022 20:05

IMPO, I think a large reason for non movement in developing the Pilot asset, which is very valuable indeed, is the total Capex cost

[anley] 12/12/2022 16:55

I feel sorry for Steve Brown - floated at 44p and now under water at 20p with the possibility of the company loosing its licence by the end of 2023.

The market today seems to be thinking the same as I do by marking the price down by over 15%.

Problem is - will the directors sell out at a M/Cap of under £10m as a clean company and for it to be used as a SHELL company - excuse the word but they are owed a huge sum so could land up as the big creditor.

[euclid5] 12/12/2022 09:38

Recall the Capex on Pilot was around £1b, very costly

[sigma3333] 08/12/2022 07:37

albo
would be interesting to see how small a development could be to make oodles of cash with EPL incentives. Steve touched on a phased development. Personally with EPL in play I would go back to the drawing board re development concept. 34 wells sounds too much like hard work to me and may not give the best return.
siggy

[albo] 07/12/2022 20:24

Thanks Siggy,
Certainly some big paying names on the list that should be eager to get a new development project underway for 9% of the real cost - while the EPL lasts!

The incentive part of the EPL is quite well structured. Somebody soon will take notice of the Pilot project as a cheap way of building reserves and growing profit.... For those high production/high profit companies there is a HUGE incentive to invest in UK projects rather than overseas. Their shareholders should be lobbying them to invest and reduce tax expense for future benefits!!!

[sigma3333] 07/12/2022 15:21

Worth watching.

Windfall Tax



siggy

[albo] 07/12/2022 12:39

Anley, you've changed your mind on SQZ since the 15th Nov???

[anley] 06/12/2022 17:00

ALBO........I don't think for one minute that SQZ would be interested in ORCA - its gas to oil and with the 2023 licences being bid for SQZ will go the gas route.

The same goes for PMG where that is what I call a "private" PLC.

What ORCA would like is a bid from someone who wants to get in to oil over the next decade but with this government and Labour in power in 2025 who wants to take on political risks etc.

Sorry if you think I am being a big bad bear but most of the North Sea directors with a quote would deep down like out with a pension.

We just don't think and act like brash US oil men - go drill and raise the capital on the US markets and perhaps that market is shut off now.

[sonofthebull] 05/12/2022 14:39

They have to put there profits some where or sell up ( thats been tried )
It appears SQZ going into ORC or PMG wouldn't be a bad thing !

[albo] 05/12/2022 13:41

Anley, with the SQZ news on NE does that make them more likely to want to jump into Pilot?

[sigma3333] 29/11/2022 18:34

hxxps://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/465895/north-sea-projects/

Just a matter of time until the penny drops.

siggy

[anley] 25/11/2022 14:08

Read towards the end of his report - funding difficult and also with the current tax and political outlook it is a real gamble but one that may be worth one's while as the oil price could come under pressure in 2023.

[albo] 25/11/2022 08:59

There's an intereting write up about Orcadian today on moram.eu

[sigma3333] 22/11/2022 17:34

A Johnny Logan hit springs to mind

s:-)gy

[anley] 15/11/2022 15:30

So the authorities give a 1 year extension for ORCA licence to expire in NOV 2023.

But where will the capital come from - not the City it seems but from another company wanting to drill - SQZ or HBR and if so then everything will have to be in place before Labour get in to power and tax the North Sea to death.

Maybe Thursday will bring some news but what sort for both S Brown and shareholders?

[dudishes] 10/11/2022 15:10

Do not rate Zac (paid for ramper).

Closed £600 down.

cheers

[albo] 23/10/2022 11:23

See comment below from Zak Mir. He obviously sees a bargain at these prices!!!

The North Sea / Orcadian
As a side note to the Baron Oil rise, it may be worth being mindful of another North Sea oil and gas play, whose market cap was this week overtaken by Baron. Indeed, with recent board changes, funding news, and August’s farm-out agreement, one would have thought the stage is set for recovery at Orcadian (ORCA). This would be the case even without the latest moves by the North Sea Transition Authority pushing for more production, obviously in a green way. Of course, the draconian rules regarding green / clean production, are part of the reason that production has fallen and we have a crisis.