Orcadian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[anley] 15/3/2022 14:47

Agreed BUT DIVMAD is right - you have to have a big boy holding your hand and also who trusts this government who are still afraid of the so called NET ZERO GANG.

There has to be a NEW UK ENERGY POLICY fully debated and explained with estimated costs and this can then be put to general public.

It is good that oil has come down to $100 and gas as well as its the combination which the stupid press grab and make in to nonsense headlines and that is more often a fault of our current government.

I have since 2020 kept many press stories and this started when the big banks in the USA were worried about their loans to the major oil/gas companies in the USA and EU. You had low oil/gas prices and billions owed in loans. All this was pointed out to me by a friend who ran a tiny hedge fund in CA and the figures were huge/huge. The banks put the squeeze on and as the price rose much of that cash flow went back BUT there was nothing left for new drilling and repairs and that became the route of todays problem ++ a war.

Along came COP26 and Carney - remember him the banker who did nothing for the UK - got most of the banks to sign up to a no more lending to fossil fuel businesses around the world......and that is a big sticking point for ORCA as well as anyone else. So we are back to making sure that UK North Sea oil/gas policy is adopted BUT with banks - US/UK/EU being able to lend to speed up the development of new pools of gas and oil of with Steve Brown is part of this new story.

As for the fundamentals - energy free cash flow yields are more than double those of tech and inflation makes all of these assets real assets and that is what is in the North Sea including in and around the Norwegian coast where metals and minerals have been discovered.

Tec assets are light and gas/oil assets are worth more and if we all work out what is what we will over the next few years make a great deal of money.

Thanks for reading this as I continue to buy a few ORCA each week.

[albo] 13/3/2022 18:39

I think i remember about $900m.... But the NPV10 return is HUGE!!! Even at $70 oil. Who knows what it's like at $90 or above!!!!

[divmad] 13/3/2022 17:39

By the way, what is the projected capex to get into production at Pilot?

[divmad] 13/3/2022 15:26

You've got the mail on the head, anley. The Sunday Roast interview went on about the huge disconnect between Nov, discounted by 50% even, and MC, but it's the ability to get a farm in partner to fund development that is holding this back. Look at how i3e could only find a minnow like Europa to go in for a 25% stake in its Serenity appraisal well last week. Even at these crazy oil prices, the well funded O&G cos are still not getting involved in new developments in secure locations.

[mikeh30] 09/3/2022 18:47

When's the placing?

[anley] 09/3/2022 17:26

The problem with is stock is LIQIDITY with the MM. The MM keep a balanced book and will do so until the company places stock and creates a decent market in the shares.

The story is excellent and I wish the management well.

[aimmafia] 09/3/2022 07:53

Why are you even trying to guess things like that

[albo] 08/3/2022 13:15

The 51,283 sale would be, my guess, a holder selling £20k to put into an ISA before end of the tax year?????

[euclid5] 03/3/2022 19:06

140,000 buy yesterday

[aimmafia] 03/3/2022 13:01

Why the drop :)

[phoebus_av] 03/3/2022 09:15

Why the rise? Are you asking that with a straight face?

[aimmafia] 03/3/2022 08:56

Why the rise

[albo] 01/3/2022 17:14

A small amount of trading in this one today. If JOG can do +20% in a day then this one could easily do more. Only circa £20k in trade value. What would this do if someone wanted to buy in volume...........

[sparkglobal] 17/2/2022 16:10

Any idea why? Looks like a single buyer but couldn't find any news....

[albo] 17/2/2022 12:40

Wow. It doesn't take much to move the share price here. £15k gets splashed and the share price ticks up. Hopefully behind the scenes the cogs are turning.......

[sparkglobal] 04/2/2022 14:12

I’m not sure I am following? What policy exactly does the government have to change? FDP’s are being approved (Ithaca just got one through) and there is absolutely no indication from the government that field development won’t be supported within the existing framework. So I whilst I agree that the major challenge is raising the money from traditional investors given the ESG viewpoint, the board here has done everything they can to mitigate that risk. Ultimately they will have to partner with a company that can stump up a lot of the funding required but I simply don’t see the argument that government needs to change something for Orcadian to be successful.

[anley] 04/2/2022 13:51

Its a political problem for all E&P companies to fund their businesses. And until this government changes its policy it is almost impossible to put a "true" valuation on the business.

ORCA has a terrific plan but is a good example of how difficult this market is to raise what he wants $800m. As a shareholder I do hope he does as he has the ear of the O&GA.

[albo] 02/2/2022 20:15

Just back from work to see a nice move upwards in the share price today. About time!!! This must be in response to the Shore Capital note that ORCA tweeted about today. They have put a risked share price of over £1. THAT'S A RISKED VALUATION!!!

[sparkglobal] 19/1/2022 15:59

I suspect there will be an announcement soon on the FPSO which will determine what remaining finance would be needed. This should give them something to really build on and gives the market an opportunity to find the real value of this company.

[anley] 19/1/2022 11:21

Take it from me that there is a free float pool but some who were in at 40p want out.

There is also the question as to how the capital is to be raised now the international and domestic banks are reluctant to lend for oil development.

Private equity and funds not stuffed up with rules on eco matters will have to be found but eventually ORCA will find a deal and then we will all be on to the next phase.

[albo] 18/1/2022 23:01

Anley, i don't think your second point is "market" derived, it would be the apparent lack of free float of these shares. It looks like no-one wants to sell them so the laws of supply and demand will drive the price up!!!

[ped2323] 18/1/2022 15:32

Thanks to you both for your replies. GLA

[anley] 18/1/2022 12:42

Me to and I have recently and slowly bought in.

Not a good market and for anyone who tries will soon find he/she is bidding the price up.....