Optos Share Discussion Threads

[zastas] 26/9/2013 13:05

Brown, Balls,and Millie's crash of GBP versus every other real currency is a major factor for the inflation of import prices, and the inevitable loss of purchasing power for the average Brit.

In 2008 1 USD cost us less than 50 pence at some point, now about 66, a 30% rise in 5 years, annual inflation of about 5-6%. Add to that £200 of tax and Millie's personally introduced and increased green levies per average £1200 bill. It's just so shameful of them not being able to be man enough to admit to it, and then learn from it.

I too sold SSE but straight 1300 puts today.

[stavros28] 26/9/2013 08:04

UK power prices are the lowest in Europe, whats required is quality employment good conditions of service and decent levels of pay.

Stavros

[harvester] 25/9/2013 22:19

Red Ed gave a helping hand today by scaring utility investors with his crazy price fixing ideas .
Took advantage of it today by placing a few options for SSE as follows:
STO 1x Jun 1400P/1800C @ 60
STO 2x Jun 1400P @ 52
STO 2x Jun 1400P/1300P @ 34
May sell CNA puts tomorrow if the price is right .

Politically Ed's campaign to protect working class living standards is quite astute since obviously peoples household finances are being squeezed by rising prices and stagnant wages . Hence this could be a vote winner for him.
On the other hand, threatening power station investments when there is already inadequate capacity is a big gamble. My guess is that he will have to retract later .
What other price fixes will he suggest next ? Rent controls ?

[harvester] 23/9/2013 22:03

well done , ALP . Benign expiry here too .

December will be the big one for me but looks already very promising . Option value(cost of closing open positions) for my fxcm account is down to 3.5K . Astonishingly low , considering all the open positions I hold . Usually a bad omen if things look too good .
Who dares to open October ftse option shorts ?
I may soon open some June stock positions; otherwise my option portfolio would shrink towards nothing after December .

[alphorn] 20/9/2013 17:25

Expiry should be fine with full premium for BP, IAG, UU puts and Tesco naked calls.
The chances of higher economic growth is IMO lower than downside risks at present so may make some adjustments next week.

[zastas] 20/9/2013 13:11

Seems absurd. But mine has also been high, despite super-low volatility of late. All Sept puts expired today, but cash margin was and is too for the Dec running at 4-5x the time value left. Perhaps clearing is expecting fireworks at some time soonish.

[straddle] 20/9/2013 12:59

Earlier this week my only positions were 1x Sep FTSE 6850C and 1x Sep FTSE 6900C. With FTSE @ approx 6580 each position had a liquidation value of 0.5, total liquidation value £10. The margin requirement (Berkeley Futures) was £2,800 !!!!!!! They claimed high margin requirement just before expiry because of high gamma and delta, but 280x premium ??????

[alphorn] 19/9/2013 09:19

The Fed's decision has IMO just deferred the problem and has given an opportunity to write more naked calls.
Opened several new positions but on the beach so have not posted.

[harvester] 19/9/2013 08:45

Stav: I hope you placed the ftse put short before todays surge to get a good premium.
I won't follow you on that one . Memories of 1987 crash in October !

[stavros28] 19/9/2013 08:07

Harv
FTSE Oct 6850 calls sto @18.5 been on 4 ages Dow setting up a 3 gap play will pull back after this cpl day surge, then move off again.

[harvester] 18/9/2013 20:42

well , the FED oracle has spoken . They want to keep the US housing market buoyant. UK house prices also hitting new peaks .
Are we heading for another crash ? As somebody here said before: not a question of if but when .

[harvester] 18/9/2013 08:55

crontab: only just saw your question . Too late now to give forecasts for today except watch the Fed announcement later today .

Stav: Do you remember the bear market 1973/74 then ? Made a profit during the dotcom crash ?
Let's hear what you are trading now then !

[stavros28] 18/9/2013 08:03

Just years of experience, calm down gents , you can`t trade in that frame of mind. lol

[crontab] 17/9/2013 20:59

"Stavros28 16 Sep'13 - 09:39 - 21970 of 21971 0 0

Its a bad habit u need to kick it."

Wow, pay attention, headteacher's just arrived. Or is it your dad come to give you a lecture?
What a cheek!

What are you expecting tomorrow chaps?
Thinking here any dip will be short-lived. The equity shorts and $ longs are lined up, ready for another screwing. Well, that's my theory, anyway.

[harvester] 17/9/2013 20:49

Stav: you are way off the mark with your remarks.
I am not in the habit of doubling up and not in the gambling league like Leeson . Leeson was upping his stake repeatedly when his positions were already under-water. I moved my 1x short call from a fairly safe position of sep 6750 to the even safer one of 2x Sep 6775 . Is that riskier than the positions you hold??

Yesterday : Rolled 2x ULVR sep 2500 P to Dec 2400P @ +34 .
The move was a bit too early since the share price jumped today above 2500 after a long period ITM .

Tomorrow could bring fire works if the FED does something unexpected. I don't think they will . Modest tapering already priced in by the market I reckon .

Barc shares will go ex tomorrow and the rights will start trading . Will be an interesting day tomorrow for Barc traders after todays heavy falls .

[praipus] 16/9/2013 10:58

Pleasure. Re: Telab me too.

[stavros28] 16/9/2013 10:01

Open interest in Oil was at record levels Praipus that has to play out in the short/long term. History does repeat but the wallpaper is different.
I watched the discussion you posted on Antifragility , Taleb does make me think and I like his grounded approach/thought process.
Thanks for posting the AntiF clip.

Stavros

[stavros28] 16/9/2013 09:39

Its a bad habit u need to kick it.

[harvester] 10/9/2013 10:19

Stav: all depends on what you are doubling. Doubling 4p to 8p *1000 is manageable !

[stavros28] 10/9/2013 08:02

Harv every trader who has gone under has doubled up Leeson , Neidhoffer, and the best of them all Jesse Livermore.

[harvester] 09/9/2013 23:22

Prof: I paid 6.5 this morning to close my short 1x .
At least you have now secured a profit unless extreme events occur.
I am not yet convinced that my short 2x 6775C are safe . Luckily I started with ultra-small position, so have enough fire power left to double up again to move it out of danger. Doubling up when position moves against you is normally a very risky tactic .

[profitaker] 09/9/2013 09:15

Sold my 6750 Calls for 5, can't see that being hit now.

[harvester] 09/9/2013 08:48

Trivial position adjustment:
BTC 1x Sep 6750C; STO 2x Sep 6775C @ +1.5 overall, being
£5 cash positive after commission. Guarding against late market surge before expiry . Leaves me with -1x sep 6850P; -2x sep 6775C strangle position . With the syria situation looming neither puts nor calls are sure winners at this moment .
I would prefer not to rool into October.

[harvester] 07/9/2013 17:08

Youna: yes, it would be a financially nuclear event.
It would be interesting to speculate how such event could unfold and if there are any safety bunkers to shelter in if it was to happen .
It is very hard to work out the likely sequence of events but I presume that at some point a lightningly fast chain reaction would be set off which would be unstoppable unless they could find some way to nip it in the bud.
The start point presumably would be a rise in interest rates to attract new buyers to the enormous treasury bond sales. That might happen despit massive FED intervention . Presumably also, the dollar would loose its lustre to put it mildly though currency traders would find it difficult to find a trustworthy substitute . Then as the dominoes fall paper-based assets such as shares , derivatives (options!!) would suffer. Access to money in bank accounts would probably be restricted as it was in Argentinia during their crisis . Holding physical gold bullion might be prohibited or restricted and short-selling restricted (as it was for financial shares in the 2008 crisis ). Property ownership at least of your owner-occupied home may provide a partial safety net . In anextreme financial crisis there would also be huge political risks from riots . I am not at all sure if the above speculative scenario sketch would come true but whatever happens , there would be few places to hide your savings . Many more soup kitchens would be needed but there might not be many charities able to provide the soups.
Does anyone else here have a crystal ball to the future and what it might bring if the US financial steam-roller hits the buffers ??? If so , lets hear it !

[younasm] 06/9/2013 22:36

Harv, when the US defaults (notice I did not write IF), the financial crisis will something to be remembered many generations to come. WW III would be convenient way out of this...... at the least survivors might prosper.

The only reason US is not allowed to default - everyone owns a piece of the debt.