Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[mazzstar] 15/12/2016 16:25

Blimey, Adam Reynolds says Opti will be left owning 40% of Skinbiotix post demerger. I must say that interview was a shocker.

[deeppockets] 15/12/2016 16:00

Perhaps people bought for the short term hoping for news before Xmas and now selling - a traders market!

[elrico] 15/12/2016 15:58

Adam Renolds gave a greater insight to the business model to anyone unfamiliar with OPTI. He spelled out the low cost model, which in time will have real visible earning, a low fixed cost base where the key strategy is royalty payments and license payments, which will in time become very transparent making future valuations very easy to project with each commercial deal.

Both SOH & AR intimated business for 2016 had been concluded - I took this as NO more commercial deals are expected to be signed off in 2016. AR did seem to put a damper of "multi commercial" deals being signed. This seemed to fly in the face of what SOH stated in the last RNs. It was difficult to gauge if AR was talking in terms of time frame or in terms of "multi commercial" contracts being signed.

I was intrigued to learn OPTI could retain 40% of Skinbiotix post demerger, this is 5% more than I expected. Very encouraging.

I am not going to concern myself with the share price movement over the holidays, except to say, January sales may be put on hold in favour of accumulating OPTI.

[neftanikoff] 15/12/2016 15:37

That's most likely the interview damage and just after you said it was holding up reasonably well. i say damage in the sense that it probably points to there being no more news this year.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 15:33

20k dumped at 63p. Has turned very weak after hitting resistance at 67p (50 ema)

[elrico] 15/12/2016 15:08

Bloody warrants holders flipping....line em up :-)

[neftanikoff] 15/12/2016 15:04

re 17398 and 17399, sort of conflicting views within a short space of time, by the same poster.

I've listened to the interview between AR and TW and can say there is nothing new there which, which as it is may well have counted for the drop with the impatient selling on no news before the new year.
Basically, he says OPTI is already revenue producing (not much )and this Asian MN should be named in Jan/Feb, the nomad has seen the contract and is happy with it. There will be more deals with MN following. All these will be royalty based with initial payments. The cost base is and will continue to be low since the science is all University spawn and there is no intention of manufacturing /producing, thereby there will be no need for costly plant/building/staff costs. Opti's science will be in the actual tablets/bars /shakes etc., So while OPTI is loss making atm, with these Royalty payments coming in every month and with a low fixed cost base, the profits presumably will start showing. Not a bad business model, i guess. And of course the demerger of the skin bit was mentioned, of which opti has about i think 70%, the new company will list on aim, i cant remember when he said.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 14:55

Some reasonable info someuwin, however market is not listening or interested.Peeps buying in on RNS now 5% down.

[someuwin] 15/12/2016 14:53

Some good info in that AR interview.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 14:49

LOL as predicted, looks like a peep dumping 5k lots. 5 just gone through.

[maxwellsdemon] 15/12/2016 14:49

Gut feelings: How the microbiome may affect mental illness and interact with treatment
Date:
December 7, 2016
Source:
American College of Neuropsychopharmacology
Summary:
All of us who have experienced a 'nervous stomach' under periods of stress suspect that there is a link between our gut and our mood. Now researchers have received strong scientific support for exactly this link.


.............This link was most convincingly demonstrated when changes in the diversity of microorganisms living in the gastrointestinal system were measured while rats were subjected to chronic stress over a 7-week period. Not only did the number of microorganisms decrease as stress became more chronic, behavioral changes suggested that the rats also began experiencing loss of pleasure and "despair-like" behavior. Moreover, when these microorganisms were transferred from the stressed rats to a new group of animals that had not been stressed, Dr. Emily Jutkiewicz found that these new animals also began to demonstrate these same behavioral changes after 5 days, suggesting a potential causal mechanism.

Treatment implications were examined in a series of human studies that demonstrated similar reductions in the microbiome in participants suffering from both major depression and bipolar disorder. These changes were associated with increased anxiety and sleep problems, and with increased complaints of general health problems. Referring to these associations in bipolar subjects, Dr. Simon Evans concluded that, "The data support the hypothesis that targeting the microbiome may be an effective treatment paradigm for bipolar disorder."

[john henry] 15/12/2016 14:19

IMHO the share price will not hold. Complete lack of any interest from the market.Peeps still exiting with no buyers.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 14:13

SP holding reasonable well considering more sellers than buyers.

[elrico] 15/12/2016 14:00

JJ - I intimated as such earlier, with a caveat there is a lot happening because OPTI have stated previously they have a lot of enquiries each week. But the late stage stuff, I agree, probably next year.

[judijudi] 15/12/2016 13:35

Reading that last bit I doubt there wll be any more news this side of the New Year

[parob] 15/12/2016 12:32

Transcript of recent interview:



OptiBiotix Health PLC Q&A: Joint Product Agreement with Multinational
Posted by: Amilia Stone 15th December 2016

Optibiotix Health PLC (LON:OPTI) Chief Executive Officer Stephen O’Hara caught up with DirectorsTalk to discuss their joint product agreement with a multinational and other potential commercial progress.

Q1: Now Stephen, you’ve announced today a pretty exciting RNS, can you tell me a bit more about the agreement with this multinational?
A1: Yes, sure, it is pretty exciting. So if we go back to the end of November, Optibiotix announced a scientific commercial update which discussed a number of commercial partners across all its technology platforms and this announcement is as a result of ongoing discussions with one of those partners and it creates an opportunity to take Optibiotix’s SlimBiome technology into the Asian market with a major corporate whose name will be well-known to investors. The agreement allows the development of food and over the counter products containing the SlimBiome technology for the Asian market which I’m sure everyone would appreciate is a very large market with both India and China ranked second and third in having the highest number of overweight people in the world. So this agreement is a very exciting agreement and is a great opportunity to take our technology to a major market with a well-known international brand and is really good news for shareholders.

Q2: Why can’t you tell investors the name of the multinational?
A2: This is always very difficult, I’d love to be able to tell the investors the name of the corporate because they’d be excited by it but there’s a number of reasons why this tends to happen, it’s not that uncommon with large corporates for a number of reasons.
he first point is that this is a product development agreement, we’re creating new products for the Asian market and, as you might expect, any company who’s launching new products into a market they’ll want to maintain commercial advantage informing competitors of the launch plans for new products reduces that advantage.
Secondarily, corporates spend many years and millions of dollars building up their brand name and creating brand recognition and when the name eventually comes out people will certainly recognise the name. They don’t really want to see other companies like Optibiotix leveraging their brand name for their commercial gain. Just to put this in context, we have an agreement, it’s covered by confidentiality clauses and if we did break those clauses for whatever reason and that could lead to termination of the agreement. Commercially we’re in discussions with the same company for other products so we’re also discussing our cholesterol supplement and our sugars so it’s our commercial interest to respect confidentiality with this agreement.
In addition, as a company Optibiotix has built up a very good reputation with our partners and the industry in general and we wouldn’t want to risk reputational damage by releasing confidential information so whilst it would be great to tell shareholders I’m afraid in this case, certainly for the time being, we can’t release the name of the corporate.

Q3: Can you give us an update on other potential commercial progress for OptiBiotix Health PLC?
A3: Yes, there’s a lot going on and as we announced previously we’re in late-stage discussions with quite a number of partners across all our platforms and there continues to be a lot of interest in our technology across all our platforms. I created deals for companies over many many years and this is a really exciting area, we‘ve got lots of companies interested across all our technology platforms, that’s fairly unusual and a number of these discussions have been going on for many months.
Typically they go through a process where there’s interest then they extend it to due diligence of our science which goes to the technical stage, you then have a due diligence on the technical property and often the partners, particularly if they’re global partners and they have opportunity across a number of different continents and countries, the partners want to assess the opportunity in each of those countries. So that can take often 6-7 months to actually go through this particular process so we’ve lots of discussions taking place and we’d hope that a number of these agreements would conclude in the new year.
For now we’ve got a great agreement with a great company and it’s a good end to 2016 and we hope to have a very successful 2017.

[diamond fibre] 15/12/2016 11:57

Monkey, I will give you odds of 10_1 that we are above 60p on January 1st, You fancy a grand?

[elrico] 15/12/2016 11:03

The takeover is obviously an option at these levels, especially when you consider where the IP derisking is and the respective markets. It is something I have given some thought to, given SOH stated strategy of spin-off companies and Skinbiotix being the first. SOH thinking may be that OPTI vulnerable in it present state - He clearly thinks its a better way of unlocking value, so spinning the company into 4 protect OPTI's IP from a predator looking to obtain our science on the cheap is a strategy to protect IP and unlock value. I don't want this at this stage, I would much prefer OPTI prove its commercial strategy, which will underpin our real worth for any future TO. Obviously, acquisitors don't think this way because they know the later the TO the more money they have to put on the table.

[judijudi] 15/12/2016 11:02

I doubt very much this will be taken over anytime soon

[woodaldo] 15/12/2016 10:52

Interesting hypothesis someuwin, however if there are other MN's ready (possibly 5 others) to sign I doubt SOH would be giving OPTI away cheap. A few more announcements and the product on the shelves and this mcap will be a long and distant memory and his negotiating hand would be that much stronger.

[rafboy] 15/12/2016 09:50

An interesting thought someuwin. I believe SOH sold his previous company but I think he feels OPTI has a long way to go still so perhaps any MN taking a decent sized stake is more likely. I would certainly think that any MN would want to preserve their advantage in some way. That along with a potential disposal as well as other deals will make 2017 a very interesting year for OPTI.

[someuwin] 15/12/2016 09:38

We don't know the identity of this new JV partner. It may be T*t*, it might not be - it doesn't really matter. What matters is that it is a super major player with a multi-billion turnover with many recognisable brands.

We know they are going to be launching products containing Slimbiome next year into China & India plus other asian countries?

We also know this partner is in discussions to produce products using OPTI's Sugar and Cholesterol ip too.

Now if I were making a big investment (in time & money) to launch multiple products based on a small UK company's IP, I would want to be certain of safeguarding the supply of the base ingredients.

So imo, they will either have to make a full takeover bid or (more likely) take a strategic stake in OPTI and install one of their bods on the board.

"...Discussions are ongoing and it is hoped a further announcement can be made in due course."

Watch this space.

[parob] 15/12/2016 09:32

On Twitter yesterday evening:

Bhavik Patel ‏@BhavikAnilPatel 11h11 hours ago

It was a pleasure to host and share research ideas with @OptiBiotix. Looking forward to a sustained partnership #microbiota #probiotics

Bhavik is a “Reader in Clinical and Bioanalytical Chemistry at the School of Pharmacy and Biomolecular Sciences at the University of Brighton.”

[elrico] 15/12/2016 08:47

Owenmo - IMO anyone selling now is either protecting profits from early entry, a forced seller that took a gamble news would be much earlier than we now know or Christmas funds required. There are many possibilities, impatience is a key one and fear of conspiracy theories...we are an AIM company, so it's to be expected.

2017 will be a year we get a real tangible glimpse of potential and 2018 will be a year where we see hard evidence of financial wealth our IP bank is capable of.