Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[elrico] 20/9/2017 15:29

Thanks for the very encouraging feedback -Trotters, Deeppockets, Kipper....sorry if I missed anyone.

Ref - financials, breakeven/profit timeline. If I am not mistaken, SOH has maintained OPTI will be profitable by YE 2018, this has been his forecast almost 12 months old now - This would have been before TATA/SlimBiome, TATA/LPGOS, HLH and PharmBiota and of course SACCO. I know SOH wants to offer revenue guidance but won't just yet while revenue streams are building. It is frustrating, but logically it makes sense for SOH not to stick his neck on the line and risk his credibility. We are afterall embarking on new markets, new products with new science, thus very difficult to gauge sales revenues at such an early stage. It would be very easy for SOH to ramp the share price up with revenues estimations, something we have all probably suffered before with unscrupulous CEO's at one time or another on AIM.

I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest H1 2018 OPTI move into profit in a small way, say 6 figures and then significant pace in H2 and into 2019. Remember, our PLC costs will reduce not rise as and when OPTI demerges SweetBiotix or any other division. However, it does appear SOH is open to a B2B sale or PLC listing; either way, costs should reduce and they are already ridiculously low for a PLC that has just moved from R&D to commercial. It would seem some R&D will be passed on to partners, thus protect the cash further.

Another interesting point - It seems to me Boots in particular are making space for a new range of "health and wellness" range, which will include OPTI products expected mid 2018. Christina says Boots and H&B have been bought recently, not brought on board as I implied in error! She said that makes it more difficult to get in front of them., this comes from Christina, so credible. This all fits in with what SOH has told us about scaling up production capacity for SlimBiome.

I'm remain unconvinced FINNCAP are earning their fee's. The DE sales are a case in point. If DE is bent of selling further, lets hope FINNCAP can find a home for them. Very pleased SOH is not willing to pander to II interest at PI's expense.

[trotterstrading] 20/9/2017 08:56

Interestingly SBTX are presenting at 3 conferences in Sept and Oct!

[trotterstrading] 20/9/2017 08:53

Placing DE shares with II's is Fincaps job. SoH said FinCap could easily get II's onboard but he doesn't want to do a 'placing', which is what II's want (e.g. Big chunks at juicy discount). That said FinCap are working with DE and II's to see what they can do with his residual holding. Personally I think it very refreshing we have a CEO who will ONLY do a placing in circumstances where he is certain he can create value for SH's - ergo SBTX

[2350220] 20/9/2017 08:51

Thanks for the various replies Deep, Trotters and Parob.
John

[riskybusiness1] 20/9/2017 08:49

From that interview I got the impression Bened could be a future acquisition target hence reason behind the MOU type deal.

[fathenry] 20/9/2017 08:45

wot abot evans shares, talking with broker but no gtees?

[trotterstrading] 20/9/2017 08:45

Per spoke about the maturity of the Asia market, particularly Japan where probiotics are well established with a very long history, Taiwan also large with incredible growth in Probiotics forecast for the next few years, 25%+ he used the example of our MoU partner generating $2m in sales in just 2 years with no human trials, which bodes extremely well for OPTI's human trial backed products!You really get the feeling we are at the launch pad, the rocket is being fuelled and we are preparing for take off. SoH has gone on record as being cash flow positive in 2018. SoH is a very conservative chap, so my guess is during H1 next year

[trotterstrading] 20/9/2017 08:20

Extremely bullish after chatting with SoH and Per, it's staggering how much OPTI have going on right now, hard to keep track of all the avenues they are active in tbh (and I've been here from the start!). Per was full of praise for SoH, said he's easily the best CEO he's worked for in terms of vision and business savvy (note SoH was chatting elsewhere at the time). He emphasised how laser focussed he is on value creation (e.g. every idea Per/Christina present to SoH, he insists on demonstrating shareholder value, sounds obvious doesn't it, but Per said it's a first for him!)

[parob] 20/9/2017 07:19

Cheers for all the feedback from last night guys.



15/9

Cognitive Health: Mind the Gap

The brain health market is poised for further growth thanks to an ageing population and consumer acceptance of taking supplements to combat neurological decline.

As more science and research comes to light on the ability of specific nutrients to positively impact cognitive health, mainstream products with these ingredients will enter the marketplace. Large food manufacturers are likely waiting for the science behind these ingredients to develop before they enter the category, but with the opportunity this segment offers, it will only be a matter of time before we see an explosion of new products on retail shelves.

------

Would be great to make an acquisition in the cognitive space.

And our partnership with Bened could turn into a real money-spinner.

[kipper1960] 19/9/2017 22:25

SOH was not forthcoming with any new, hard information, as expected. However, he did say wanted to add to the team and was actively recruiting to new commercial director, - someone with experience running a £500m company. Read into that what you will

[trotterstrading] 19/9/2017 22:01

> U.K. Launch of LP LDL planned, hopefully this year (most likely through Amazon first)>Fincap 'dealing with' II's for DE shares (no guarantees but they are working on it)>New Sales director for sugars within 3-6 months >looking for a New Chairman (with experience of £600m co's)>SBTX doing 'very well', they are making a lot of progress which has not been announced to the market, when I asked why, SoH said they use a different company for comms, they believe in less frequent more substantive news. So next news could be a biggie (reading between the lines)> I pressed SoH on the SBTX divie, I put it to him he's waiting for substantive news from SBTX before finalising the distribution. He didn't confirm or deny, but smiled and repeated previous statements about the importance of SBTX value creation (and no detrimental impact on OPTI) >OPTI team in Vegas for 5 days, with multiple appointments lined up already.> Cereal ingredients Inc are a leader in their field & highly regarded - Per used to work with them in previous a role > dotting the ii's and crossing the TT's of the MoU to corroborate the sales numbers.>could be further action in cognitive health if the right opportunity presents itself

[marnewton] 19/9/2017 21:51

Hi tightfist,

The 'skin-spin' wasn't flawed, it made complete sense. I have no issues with it - apart from the in specie share issue, which I never could get my head around - I know that's what you meant;¬) The mechanics of it will be complex and probably ludicrously expensive, if not impossible. My hopes rallied briefly when TW seemed to think it possible, having more access to SOH than the rest of us, but those hopes have faded again.

We'll have to agree to differ on the rest, I don't see the problem with a joint venture followed by an acquisition...though wonder the wisdom of selling anything but peripheral non-core products.

And in any case, further spin-offs, if any, should be miles down the road and not at this very early stage in our evolution. I've said that from day one. They've got enough to be getting on with without distractions.

But then, I'm just a humble chartist;¬)

Cheers,

Martin


EDIT: Instead of divestment, SOH has also talked about creating divisions within the parent company - that's the way to go, for now.

[trotterstrading] 19/9/2017 21:35

He won't be draw on forecasts until he thinks they will have enough data to make them credible, that's his position and he's sticking to it. He mentioned EKF as an example of how the market can punish companies if they're forecasts are not credible, only caught the end of the convo, not familiar with the story myself

[deeppockets] 19/9/2017 21:15

John, you could see he was tempted to say something but he smiled and repeated 2018. I think he wanted to say early 2018 but knew he shouldn't as he hates people taking things he has said and turning it round! When they start revenue graph will be like a hockey stick. He wouldn't be hiring a Commercial Director for Sweetbiotix if there wasn't enough demand. Also hiring a Chairman to take company to next level.

[2350220] 19/9/2017 20:58

Hello all,
I asked the question I mentioned to you earlier, and I wasn't all that enamoured with SoH's answer.
I asked: Are we getting enough revenues in to fund our existing burn rate, and if not, when do you envisage that point being, roughly?
SoH's answer was simply
"In 2018".
I said that that's a whole 12 months window, so are we talking early, middle or late 2018? Again I reiterated Roughly.
He shrugged me off with the same answer 2018.

I've got most of my available resources tied up here, so I was a bit downhearted with the reply I'm afraid.

Sill long, but not as warm hearted as I was before the presentation.

IF anyone else who was there can give a different account, that would be good.
John

[colinzeal] 19/9/2017 17:51

lmfao...you can tell SoH is struggling to keep a straight face when that guys says "Optibiotix".

[marnewton] 19/9/2017 16:58

To suggest that the growth in value of 'skin' from purchase to listing would be reflected in future listings is, at best, a non sequitur. Apples and pears.

And I still don't get the logic of a series of divestments. Why, for instance, would big partners find OPTI's structure too complicated to "acquire assets".

If anything I vote for a listing on NASDAQ...as one entity.

M


EDIT: I should say, apart from my quibbles, it was a good interview!

[onedayrodders] 19/9/2017 16:15

"And as a bonus we are told that it has got FDA clearance for both Slimbiome and for LP-LDL® allowing access to the US market which is great news."

somebody queried earlier that registration not approval but FDA Clearance and access to the US looks like approval to me

[2350220] 19/9/2017 16:10

Finished my visit to the Plaza expo at Olympia and went to have a quick snoop at the RAF Club.
Very flash place.
Guess is better put the shirt on that I brought with me, rather than this old T-shirt!!
John

[parob] 19/9/2017 16:08

New SOH interview just out on PI:

OptiBiotix 'gaining real commercial traction' - CEO Stephen O'Hara

15:36 19 Sep 2017

Stephen O'Hara, chief executive of OptiBiotix Health plc (LON:OPTI), tells Proactive they're to launch an improved version of their weight loss product Slimbiome at a major US trade fair at the end of the month.

Optibiotix already has US product registration for Slimbiome, which is a patented combination of natural ingredients, and will launch the new version at the Supply Side West trade show where it will be exhibited with Cereal Ingredients Inc, a potential joint development partner.

In a wide-ranging discussion O'Hara also brought Proactive up to speed on developments with LPLDL - another of their innovations that is gaining market traction.

OptiBiotix struck a profit-sharing deal with Italian firm Sacco to manufacture and supply the cholesterol-reducing compound and the first sales of the product were made to HLH BioPharma Vertriebs.

[devonlad] 19/9/2017 15:57

I reckon he now has less than a million left, should go up when he has cleared imho!

[marnewton] 19/9/2017 15:45

marnewton
14 Sep '17 - 10:40 - 27062 of 27228    2   0   Edit

IMO, bad gateway, it's more than a little premature to be talking H & S patterns.

I see what you're seeing, but, in any case, the identification of such patterns should be reserved for TRUE TOPS, not the no man's land we currently occupy.

----------

Further...

Imagine, if you will, a Dow Theory series of higher highs/higher lows, a classic bull run to a top. Then the top rolls over to give a lower high (with accompanying volume fingerprint) - that is a true H & S pattern. Not this.

That doesn't mean we won't go lower. Though I'm hoping the 50 day SMA will hold. It's doing pretty well so far, despite the sells.


M

[primal123] 19/9/2017 15:39

Thanks Scotty. Another 100k sell and one yesterday. It will be great once Evans has finished and I hope it is soon!