Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[bubbabubbabubba] 05/9/2023 10:45

https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/opg-power-generation-pvt-ltd/1075opgpl26/975032/corp-announcements/ Scroll to bottom

[tim000] 05/9/2023 09:21

I can’t post a link at the moment, but if you go to the Investors section of the OPG website, very near the bottom is a heading for OPG Power Generation. Clicking on that will take you to the Annual Report. Of course this is just the thermal generator subsidiary, not the consolidated results of the whole group, for which we must wait until the end of this month. Furthermore, these results had already been published in late May, they now include all the details of full audited results.

[the original goldbug] 05/9/2023 08:50

Link please gentlemen. 🙏🏻

[tim000] 05/9/2023 06:27

It’s also on the OPG website.

[bubbabubbabubba] 04/9/2023 18:45

They released annual report on bse

[tim000] 03/9/2023 09:32

India’s current shortfall of generating capacity is a direct result of its politicians being fed BS by governments in the West about climate change pseudo science, and the need to phase out fossil fuels. Populations in the West are increasingly rebelling against the resultant sharp decline in their living standards. It will be interesting to see whether India now changes course and puts less emphasis on renewables for long-term energy security.

[tim000] 03/9/2023 09:02

August was possibly the driest August for over a century. 31st August saw a new record peak for electricity demand of 236GW, rising to nearly 240GW on 1st September (which was 20% higher than peak usage during the whole of September 2022). Power prices on the IEX exchange have risen to R10 per unit, reflecting generating shortages of over 10GW due partly to a slump in renewables output. The share of thermal power is reported to have risen by 5pp to cover this shortfall. It appears much of the increase in power demand is at night time, when renewable energy is not available, requiring thermal gencos to plug the gap. Thermal power producers using domestic coal have been ordered to increase coal imports and maintain imports at 4% of consumption until next March.

[tim000] 01/9/2023 19:48

My posts have highlighted the enormous efforts the Indian authorities are going to to keep generating costs as low as possible, for the benefit of gencos, households and the competitiveness of industry. Contrast that with European governments which are doing the exact opposite. Germany is even destroying its own manufacturing base! The medium term outlook for OPG thus looks very profitable, but no doubt it will take time for the share price to reflect this.

[tim000] 01/9/2023 12:18

Tata Power is up 25% in the past six months as the outlook for gencos improves. OPG is flat over the same period. Positive newsflow for FY23 and H1 FY24 hopefully will start a rerating.

[tim000] 01/9/2023 10:28

Hindubusinessline: “Government aims to supply 112mnt coal via coastal shipping by 2030”. At present the bulk of thermal coal transported by coastal shipping is from MCL mines through Odisha’s Paradip and Dhamra ports to southern India, incl Tamil Nadu. Volumes via this route increased 50% in FY2023 to 42mnt. “Opting for a road to sea to road route could potentially save R760-1300/t in logistics costs for end users located in southern India”. It’s likely that when OPG says it’s looking to increase procurement of domestic coal, this is its route to minimise costs.

[tim000] 31/8/2023 11:58

For the 3 months Aug-Oct, CIL is auctioning a record 6.55mnt of non coking coal under the SHAKTI scheme, ie for gencos without power purchase agreements, with procurement on short term contract of 3-12 months.

[tim000] 31/8/2023 09:33

Economic Times: Indian peak power demand reached an all-time record of 234GW during 17 August, with only slightly lower levels in the preceding week. Contributory factors were low rainfall and high humidity. Use of cooling appliances and irrigation thus spiked. Spot electricity prices on the Indian electricity exchange jumped from R5 to R9.2 per unit between 1st and 18th August.

[tim000] 30/8/2023 06:56

Government mandate for gencos importing coal to maximise output has been extended to October, in the face of record electricity demand in August. The Hindu businessline reports electricity consumption up 21% yoy in August.

[tim000] 28/8/2023 18:41

[Edited/corrected] It seems that OPG is issuing a new, BSE listed, 50 crore (ca £5 mn) NCD, with the same maturity date (Aug 2026) as the existing 75 crore NCD. We will have to wait to hear what the proceeds will be used for, but in view of the company’s strategy of deleveraging, my best guess would be to repay some of its existing bank term loans.
The bond ISIN number is INE0D8F07048

[tim000] 28/8/2023 14:02

“India considers tax breaks for electric vehicles.” EVs account for just 1% of annual vehicle sales currently, but the government is targeting a market share of 30% by 2030. That implies rapid long term growth in electricity demand. Government policies that stimulate electricity demand necessitate a very profitable generation industry.

[tim000] 28/8/2023 07:22

Looks like you’re right, Bubba, the new NCD might not be listed and hence no sign of Q2 results yet.

[tim000] 28/8/2023 07:12

ICI4 price virtually unchanged this week.

[the original goldbug] 28/8/2023 06:03

They have had no margins for a number of years. Even the politicians and bureaucrats in Delhi can see the writing on the wall.

[tim000] 26/8/2023 11:41

Adani Power reported a 250% increase in EBITDA (partly due to late payment fines paid by customers) and an 8pp increase in PLF, from 52% to 60%, between 2023 Q1 and Q2, presumably due to lower coal prices and the government mandate to maximise output starting in March.

[tim000] 26/8/2023 10:35

Given few new thermal power plants are planned, the extra coal production will at least partly substitute for imports, meaning gencos such as OPG will in future switch to much cheaper domestic output. At a time when nearly all industries are suffering margin pressure due to cost inflation, Indian thermal power generators must be almost unique in seeing government policies which aim to slash input costs over the next few years.

[tim000] 26/8/2023 10:14

Coalmint: CIL targets coal production of 1 billion tonnes by FY 2026, a 40% increase compared with FY 2023. 84% of production currently goes to the power sector, which in turn is responsible for 71% of power generation.

[tim000] 25/8/2023 07:02

India’s GDP is estimated to grow by over 8 % in the year to 2023 Q3, and by over 6.5% in fiscal 2024. Household demand for electricity seems to be growing strongly in the face of rising incomes and growing demand for air conditioning given the climate. Construction of new generating capacity seems to be sluggish, with delays in bringing new projects online (Tangedco is criticised for this). So PLFs should be increasing, consistent with government mandates for gencos to maximise output in fiscal H1. So the outlook for OPG looks strong, if investors are willing to wait. Long term dividend yield at current share price should easily be in double figures.

[tim000] 25/8/2023 06:44

Hopefully in time, as management has stated. Coal prices are not homogeneous, they vary from market to market and according to product characteristics, eg calorific value. Australian coal commands a premium, Indian coal a discount due to government policy to keep the price low for local gencos. The key for OPG is the extent to which it has been successful in switching to cheap local coal supplies, especially longer term contracts at FSA rates.

[dave4545] 24/8/2023 21:23

Did you see Bisi interims from £20 mil+ profits to virtually nothing due to price drops after freak year due to the war,

If that is anything to go by then OPG should do the opposite which is huge profits from losses.

[tim000] 24/8/2023 08:42

An article published today in the New Indian Express (“TangedcoR17;s power purchase cost up by Rs 2000 crore every financial year”) quotes a source stating that the current cost of thermal power generation is ca R5 per unit, while Tangedco purchases each unit from gencos at ca R9. Assuming Tangedco’s wholesale pricing to industry is indicative of OPG’s charges, Tangedco’s published tariffs are currently R7.65 per unit.