Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 20/1/2021 15:00

pogue - that would essentially require Orph and ConserV to agree relative valuations of the Imutex assets and the other ConserV assets in order to get a "fair" price for its share of Imutex. It could happen, but isn't it simpler just to float the Orph assets (or reverse them into whatever Nasdaq shell CF can negotiate access to)?

If Orph does float (or reverse) the assets then Orph shareholders would still get shares in whatever company the assets end up in, I think.

[pogue] 20/1/2021 14:54

More questions than answers here's another one.
What if Conserv floats and offers ORPH shareholders shares in Conserv for their 49% of Imutex. That gives us shareholders shares in a new company which CF has said may happen.

[1gw] 20/1/2021 14:53

I think they each transfer their Imutex holding into their respective new vehicles. So neither ConserV, nor any new Orph company would hold the Imutex assets (FLU-v and AGS-v), they would hold each company's shareholding in Imutex.

This is an alternative to floating Imutex itself. The advantage of doing it this way, is that it allows each company to put other assets (PrEP and the immune modulator in the case of Orph) into the vehicle being floated (or reversed).

[warranty] 20/1/2021 14:50

I’m honestly puzzled with this. CF has stated that he wants to float Imutex but surely since Hvivo only hold 49% of it he would need Seeks permission to do it. Now Seek are floating off their 51% in ConserV so I’m unsure how both can do it without the other since both can’t float Imutex seperately? Or can they?

[pierre oreilly] 20/1/2021 14:30

imho, conserv can't 'go it alone' with fluv and the mossy virus. Imutex paid seek (conserv) #7m for the licenses and i doubt they can just takeaway imutex's rights willy nilly.

Is that what you are saying?

The positive for hvivo is that, if conserve floats, then the value conserv acheives will be something a little greater than the value of its share of imutex (since the valuable phase 2 and 3 vaccines are jvs with imutex, and the other assets in total conserv has are preclinical, therefore of very much lower value. So if conserv float at #100m, I'd say that will be mainly the value of their 51% holding in imutex, indicating a value of hvivo's share of imutex at something like #80m (to allow for license income, and a bit for their preclinical and phase 1 prospects held not inside imutex).

So if conserv floats, we'll have a good idea of the value of imutex and therefor hvivo's share of it.

I now see what others have said. Hvivo could do a similar thing to conserv - form a new company, transfer imutex assets plus other non-core assets into it, and then float it.

Anyone see it differently?

[greenelf] 20/1/2021 14:28

You don't see anything positive in anything. Archetypal poop stirrer. Pizz off.

[john henry] 20/1/2021 14:00

Imho Seek have decided to go into alone and in a different direction regarding their stake in Imutex. imho

HVIVO will continue to hold a stake in Imutex with ConserV

I dont see Seeks decision as a positive for Hvivo stake in Imutex.

ConserV ( Seek) priority centres around Coronavirus Vaccine.

[1gw] 20/1/2021 13:56

chica1 - ConserV is not the same as Orph. ConserV is Seek and it is ConserV who have announced the partnership with LLNL. As far as I am aware the coronavirus vaccine ConserV is talking about is Seek's own Coranavirus program partnered with LLNL's delivery system (NLP) - nothing to do with the vaccine candidates licensed to Imutex.

However, Imutex (Seek and Orph) do have Flu-v which according to Orph material could be repurposed as a universal Covid vaccine. The licence agreement between Seek and Imutex is for a "worldwide licence of the flu and mosquito-borne disease vaccine platforms" so that sounds to me as though repurposing flu-V for Covid would be allowed by the licence, as does the fact that Orph refer to this repurposing possibility, but I'm not absolutely sure of that.

[troutisout] 20/1/2021 13:43

Forgive me but I don't see this as anything to do with Orph, it seems they (ConserV) have split this away from SEEK to go it alone on this development.

[1gw] 20/1/2021 13:43

Pierre - my assumption is that ConserV will hold Seek's 51% of Imutex. So the valuation of ConserV if it IPOs will include the value of this 51%. If it does IPO then the prospectus may give some indication of the value (or range of values) attributed to this in the offer price - in which case we would have a straight read-across to the value of ORPH's share of Imutex. If there is no explicit valuation, then analysts just have to guesstimate how much of the IPO valuation or initial price is down to the Imutex holding.

ConserV will also benefit from the licensing agreement with Imutex. The terms of the licence include a "downstream commercialisation royalty" payable by Imutex to Seek (see linked hVivo release). So presumably Imutex has to pay Seek (via ConserV) x% of revenues from any sales of vaccine.

[chica1] 20/1/2021 13:34

Link not working..

ConserV Bioscience works on mutation-proof coronavirus shots with US labRichard StainesRichard StainesJanuary 20, 2021
UK biotech ConserV Bioscience has joined with California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to develop broad-spectrum coronavirus vaccines as concerns mount over potentially more infectious strains emerging in the UK, South Africa and Brazil.

This collaboration brings together ConserV’s expertise in identifying antigens and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) nanolipoprotein particle technology (“NLP”) delivery system.

The vaccine has been designed to provide broad-spectrum protection against coronavirus pathogens of human and animal origin, including but not limited to MERS, SARS and SARS-CoV-2.

A genomic analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, shows that the virus accumulates around two mutations a month.

The new variant identified in the UK in December shows significant mutations in the Spike protein and receptor binding domain that increase its infectivity.

The variant that originated in South Africa carries a mutation in the Spike protein that has been shown to reduce antibody recognition and could therefore affect efficacy of new vaccines.

Meanwhile the variant that originated in Brazil is thought to be more infectious and a virus closely resembling it was found in a patient reinfected with SARS-CoV-2.

The partnership aims to develop a vaccine consisting of regions of genetical material from each coronavirus that causes an immune reaction.

These will be encoded in messenger RNA (mRNA) formulated with the laboratory’s NLP technology before injection.

This will allow freeze drying of both components separately, improving storage and transport conditions compared to other mRNA vaccines – Pfizer and Moderna’s shots require ultra-cool temperatures to maintain their integrity.

Vaccine formulation was funded by the Department of Health and Social Care through an SBRI programme managed by Innovate UK.

The collaboration aims to demonstrate the immunogenicity and protective responses in pre-clinical studies with clinical studies following quickly if results are supportive.

Kimbell Duncan, CEO of ConserV Bioscience, said: “Our mission is to develop safe and effective vaccines which offer broad protection against infections from viruses that mutate frequently.

“We are pleased to be working with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to develop our broad-spectrum coronavirus vaccine candidate. We have identified regions within the proteins of the virus that are not susceptible to change and, if effective, the vaccine promises to protect against a broad spectrum of current circulating coronavirus strains and future emergent ones.”

NLPs are water-soluble molecules that are 6 to 30 billionths of a meter in size, resembling high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles, which are associated with playing a role in regulating the human body’s ‘good’ cholesterol. LLNL scientists are working to use this nanotechnology, also known as nanodiscs, as a delivery platform for tularemia and chlamydia vaccines that are under development.

[chica1] 20/1/2021 13:24

hxxps://pharmaphorum.com/news/conserv-bioscience-working-on-mutation-proof-coronavirus-shot-with-us-lab/

[chica1] 20/1/2021 13:19

Looks like we have a coronavirus vaccine in the works.

hxxps://pharmaphorum.com/news/conserv-bioscience-working-on-mutation-proof-coronavirus-shot-with-us-lab/

[nickthe saint] 20/1/2021 13:14

Just by way of an outline on the news this morning.

Utilising a converted coffee shop for the volunteers to drop into for screening has huge benefits in NOT needing to take up some of the 24 Beds in the Whitechapel facility.

Previously screening was being undertaken on one of the unused floors in Whitechapel Unit, which of course meant that during the screening process, that floor (8 beds I suspect) could not then be used for the 14 day Challenge studies. Also staff would be being pulled across from the Challenge Studies work to take bloods etc of the volunteers who were being screened.

Because the screening of volunteers is a fairly basic task (take a medical, FH, Bloods etc) at the first stage and is a much larger numbers game, moving it into dedicated unit adjacent to Whitechapel confirms the 24 beds are now fully operational. Extending a unit up into Manchester significantly increase the number of likely volunteers to recruit from as a trip to London for someone from Manchester just to have bloods taken makes no sense.

It may be that a new unit to supplement the existing 3, will be opened up in the North at some stage soon. All progress inb the right direction on the stuff that is not in dispute - ie demand for Studies Challenge and others is significantly increasing and should continue to do so.

Personally I don't see £100m revenue for 2020, but could see £120m-£150m for 2021.

Regards

NTS

[666james] 20/1/2021 13:07

Just over half a million traded and down 2%+

[pierre oreilly] 20/1/2021 13:06

The two main assets of Conserve at phase 2 and 3 are both sublicensed to Imutex. The other assets conserv list are pre clinical, except the third most developed which i think is at or just ending phase 1.

I'd say much of the value in Conserv is of almost similar value to imutex.

I'm unclear (to me, does anyone understand?) if say conserve floats at a $100m cap, how does the value of the phase 2 and 3 prospects sublicensed to imutex (the most valuable assets) get reflected in imutex (and therefore hvivo and therefore orph?

Given conserv sublicence the flu and mossy tech to imutex, i assume conserve don't own the ip (?) Who does? (i know it's not imutex. I think.)

[m5] 20/1/2021 13:02

Agree on that jh.

[john henry] 20/1/2021 12:05

Support has been around 22p so that maybe has low as Invesco are willing to sell.

Tech support is around 22.5p

[1gw] 20/1/2021 11:47

I agree that's what it looks like. I would think the other side of that is that ORPH will look for a Nasdaq solution (float, reverse) for a new entity which includes its 49% in Imutex plus its equity in PrEP Biopharm and its (100%-owned) immune modulator asset.

The question is then who goes first? Is there an advantage in being first or second? i.e. whoever goes first will establish market interest in and market value of the Imutex assets. If interest and value is high then that might set the scene for even higher value for whoever goes second. On the other hand if the first is a disappointment then it may be harder to get the second away.

[john henry] 20/1/2021 11:17

Seek are merely going through a name change and rebranding.

Seeks 51% stake in Imutex will obviously be moved into Conserve.

Hvivos stake remains at 49% in Imutex.

Conserve are going for a Nasdaq listing not Imutex

Aimho

[kenwrong] 20/1/2021 11:04

John henry the Imutex deal is going to be huge. Open orphan have a 49% stake in Imutex. Seek group is rebranding to Conserve Biosciences and Imutex are moving most of its assets into Conserve Biosciences which is going for a Nasdaq listing. That will boost the value of imutex shares.

[extrader] 20/1/2021 10:38

Hi Pierre Oreilly,

.."afaiia, lots don't pass the screening. I'd expect the required characteristics of volunteers is becoming more strict with different characteristics for different challenge studies..."

A drop in basic fitness is an issue amongst the young, with 'diseases of affluence' - eg asthma, diabetes and obesity - all on the increase, esp.given an increasingly sedentary lifestyle.

ATB

[m5] 20/1/2021 10:37

john henry20 Jan '21 - 10:23 - 10770 of 10772

That's the opportunity though.We are going to get more facilities, the third one is going to be announced shortly. CF has delivered, sure we are a little behind with Imutex, but I have no doubt that will progress and add significant value. The wearables deal will IMHO get done. Lets remember the big guys came knocking on our door!! Lets remember CF said 50% share price appreciation every 6 months and then of course there is a large chance IMHO of a takeover this year.

[pogue] 20/1/2021 10:31

Pierre
income for coming year not last year hence forward based. Regards clinic revenue
hVIVO is selling normal challenge studies £4-5 million. The current clinic in Queen Mary’s hospital has 24 beds and 8 are needed per study, studies take 2 to 4 months and the clinic is full booked for 18 months. I estimate income from this at £45 million for next year from non CV19 challenge studies.

John
based on income we know of or can guess based on what we have been told is coming, if as I said you dont believe CF leave now as the price will crater if he is lying save yourself while you can. If you want the full breakdown of where the figures came from please refer back to my long valuation post earlier in Jan/late Dec then ask me again.

[1gw] 20/1/2021 10:24

CF has guided (29th October) to £70-80m run-rate revenue from a full QM + RF, so £105m is a big ask for 2021 revenue from these 2 facilities.