Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[troutisout] 07/1/2021 11:09

Not suggesting a ramp only thread, we have enough of that from some here as well.
The discussion about a background seller is pointless, because no one knows if they are selling or not and while you discuss, people will worry and think about selling, maybe some will sell to try and buy back lower and new buyers will wait to see if the price drops lower.
More sells + lack of buys = drop in share price and more discussion that this is due to a big seller.
This is self fulfilling and the MMs will help us on the way by moving the market down and recouping stock they sold at higher prices.
Invesco will have to notify if they sell another 0.97% so approx 6.6m shares, why not start to discuss then when we have evidence they are continuing to sell, as to me the notification yesterday could easily show they had stopped at that point.

[pierre oreilly] 07/1/2021 11:08

Bear, re your other point - I also don't want this to become a ramping board, Likewise i wish it wasn't a subtle slagging board when individuals have sold and want to buy back in cheaper.

(edit, not accusing you bear)

[bearnecessities] 07/1/2021 11:05

I have no idea Pierre, just like no-one else does as you alluded too. All I said earlier is it feels like we still have selling pressure. That's all, nothing more to it and merely a point of view.

[pierre oreilly] 07/1/2021 11:02

Bear - is the selling over?

No one knows. We are dealing with old info (the rns is two days after the event). My view is, on past similar sales from invesco as i described earlier, is that invesco stop selling when the rns hits the market - it's in their interest to do so, knowledge being power and all that. One thing is certain, invesco still hold some millions of shares - they haven't had time to unload the rest invisibly between the 4th and now.

The best we can hope for is that they;ve gone under 3%, in which case we'll get an rns today or tomorrow. But if not we'll know they still hold more than 3%.

My view is also that invesco have pressures to sell irrespective of the prospects for orph, and will probably sell again once the price has doubled from here (which would be consistent with how they've operated in the past.

Not gospel, just a view.

[m5] 07/1/2021 11:00

troutisout7 Jan '21 - 10:47 - 10306 of 10307

Give over. Medium term this will bounce back and then some, but lets not ignore the facts as they present themselves at the moment. We know the reason for the weakness, its not related to the business we are doing and that is the main issue for potential and current investors.

Lets not be frightened to discuss them for fear of being called a deramper or "talking the share down" Knowing the full facts should help any potential investor make a decision and gives credibility to a BB. If people buy solely of a BB they are idiots anyway. Any price weakness I would say is an opportunity for new investors if they do a little home work, however, for the moment, we are stuck in a range between 22-28p and that is likely to continue until we get rid of Invesco.

BearNecessities7 Jan '21 - 10:51 - 10308 of 10310
100% well said.

[pierre oreilly] 07/1/2021 10:53

1gw, Just glanced at your rules etc. (not going to spend loads of time on it!). I think those rules are the notification from the institution to the company. - a notification which would have been sent on Monday. (this notification is invisible to shareholders)

The reporting rules the company has to adhere to are the lse reporting rules, and it is the company who issues an rns according to those lse rules (not the rules you quoted). (this notification, the rns, is visible to shareholders).

Maybe wrong of course, but I think that's the situation.

[bearnecessities] 07/1/2021 10:51

So we can't discuss whether we think there's still a background seller then?I hope this board doesn't turn into a ramping only board where anything mentioned against the narrative is jumped on and belittled.

[bearnecessities] 07/1/2021 10:47

Will see where this settles this week and may have to get the wallet out to add another clip.

[troutisout] 07/1/2021 10:47

This board is so good at talking the share down and making it unattractive to any new investors.
Then the same people complain about the share price stagnating/falling???

[m5] 07/1/2021 10:40

I think that is highly likely, so could be in neutral for a while, add that to the so called BN and the headline 28p its not surprising we are seeing weakness to be honest. You will also get some PI's moving on seeing the Invesco RNS, as they will not have bothered to understand the history involved. Not a lot we can do, we have been here before.

[bearnecessities] 07/1/2021 10:36

I was thinking that. Feels like we still have a good amount of selling pressure here :(

[lako42] 07/1/2021 10:32

So if that's the case there is a chance they will still be dumping.

[1gw] 07/1/2021 10:27

Many institutions only have to report at 5% and 10% thresholds (and then every 1% above that). It is to do with how the holding entity is structured: in particular if it is structured as an authorised unit trust scheme or a UCITS scheme. See 5.1.5 of the attached FCA handbook.

What's curious here though is that Invesco appear to have chosen to interpret falling below 6% as "reaching" the 5% threshold.

[m5] 07/1/2021 09:40

Well done pogue, some serious dosh made there and very quickly. I wont chase it, but if it retraces and gives me a signal I might have a dabble.

evilblues7 Jan '21 - 09:36 - 10298 of 10299

Will do.

[troutisout] 07/1/2021 09:39

MALCOMM
The first is the total and the next two are the splits between two funds, which also are reportable because they are over the reportable percentage.

Reporting is required as they go up or down a % point, when over the reportable %. They are allowed to delay reporting while they are selling until they have finished, however these rules are ignored by some and there seems to be no come back for delayed reporting and as such they can do what they want. I suspect they have been selling for a while and the end of year has led to someone having a look at the account and saying 'why haven't we reported the change in our holdings here?'

[pogue] 07/1/2021 09:37

I have been in ARB since below 10p. Did take some profits too early but loaded up again. Its a wild ride.

[evilblues] 07/1/2021 09:36

Check out Nano & it's 150% recent gain. As crypto tech goes it's hard to beat...https://nano.org/

[m5] 07/1/2021 09:31

Got told to get into argo blockchain just before the break. I feel a little bit sick.

Some serious movers out there at the moment folks.

[sh0wmethemoney] 07/1/2021 09:10

Fat fingers!

[judijudi] 07/1/2021 08:59

show,
Must have been a balls up as 2 went through at the same time 🤷‍a94;️

[sh0wmethemoney] 07/1/2021 08:56

Some got mugged of 29K at 21p in the Auction

[malcolmmm] 07/1/2021 08:47

Invesco hold ORPH in a number of their funds


Invesco Asset Management Ltd 52,485,973
Invesco UK Equity High Income Fund (UK) 32,873,778
Invesco Income Fund (UK) 19,612,195
MI Sterling Select Companies Fd 11,000,000
Hargreave Hale Limited 10,327,273

[judijudi] 07/1/2021 08:36

Roll up roll up
Buy one get one free
🤞🤞

[judijudi] 07/1/2021 08:31

slarty,
👍👌

[slartybartfaster] 07/1/2021 08:22

JJ, i could be wrong. I think i read somewhere that a notification is required per 1% threshold or once the trade had finished. We will know by the end of the week is my guess.