Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[bobsworth] 06/1/2021 07:07

Open Orphan PLC Contract renewal with top-3 pharmaceutical clientSource: UK Regulatory (RNS & others)TIDMORPHRNS Number : 6842KOpen Orphan PLC06 January 2021

[pierre oreilly] 05/1/2021 18:29

Hanging onto gains, and even rising into the finish. I have my theories, but it means mentioning the T word, which annoys lots here for some reason.

Anyways, my theory is the price dipped at the end of day due to so many Ts sniffing around. Buy in the morning, sell before close, tell the mrs you've had a great day and made fifty quid. I think, or i surmmise, that many tra oops, many Ts have sold at the end of day friday and haven't had chance to get back in cheaper, so are now going to be left behind. Would explain the end of day increase as opposed to the usual end of day decrease after a day's rise. Several mill buys and sells yesterday. Would actual investors who know orph sell at a time like this? It's a five bagger for me, and seems a much better hold now than it ever has done. If I see more big unusual trades trying to mislead us in their reporting as we have seen a couple of times recently and it looks like insts buying for their own book, then I'll buy more. That would look to me like the start of a several month self-fulfilling rise as more insts buy like lemmings, the mkt cap rises to ranges more insts cover, orph moves into the bigger sectors and indexes due to rising mkt cap and press reports become more frequent.

As several others have posted recently, even the most cautious bofp calc produces multiples of the current cap as fair value. Try it and see.

[pogue] 05/1/2021 17:35

Good find Pierre. I watched it all was the same notes as the presentation I went to I still have them. CF was presenting that night though and was much more convincing lol.

[pierre oreilly] 05/1/2021 17:03

Here's maurice treacy discussing the genomic database and its potential val;ue from a year ago. From 12 mins in, or watch the lot for some good background info from the early days of orph and hvivo. Eye opening possible value .... but hasn't been mentioned much lately. I wonder if c could give us an update on this at the next presentation.

[jeanesy] 05/1/2021 16:52

Maybe we will get some news in the morning . There is plenty to come imo.

[gregb] 05/1/2021 16:48

48p gives us a mcap of just over 320 mil so definitely achievable.

[m5] 05/1/2021 16:42

We really are into a big flag pattern on the daily here. If we can break and hold 32p with volume my target is 48p. Just my opinion, no advice, DYOR etc, etc, I do like the price action at the moment and the finishes we are seeing.

[lfdkmp] 05/1/2021 16:42

In the not too distant future we are going to look back on these early January days as the start of the "next phase". ...and it is going to be significant.

Transformational is today an over-used word, but......

[marvelman] 05/1/2021 16:34

Amazing. I could buy and sell in volume at 27.5 when the bid was only 27. Feels like something more than a cup of tea is brewing now.

[m5] 05/1/2021 16:26

This now has my interest. LOL!!!

Nice so we are just about on potential resistance. Clear and hold that on an end of day basis and its on to 32p. Looking good. Bit of news now to push us through would be rather nice.

[jambam] 05/1/2021 16:24

hello hello...:)

[1gw] 05/1/2021 16:21

27.3 to sell. Could be an interesting close.

[m5] 05/1/2021 16:19

L2 just flipped around and I know it can be deceiving but strong price action into the close. I wonder..........

[sh0wmethemoney] 05/1/2021 16:01

Profuse, yes the data company that was on prior to OO, had a revenue of just £2 million but a market cap higher than we were at the time, I think they were valued at £177m.

[m5] 05/1/2021 15:35

Trader_35 Jan '21 - 15:12 - 10146 of 10147

Nice reminder.Whist we know a lot that is happening with this share, that is no doubt a substantial amount going on that is beneath the surface.

[pogue] 05/1/2021 15:19

Good find Trader_3 I am feeling a little bit excited now :0)
Based on other database companies with no income being valued not far below ORPH just now this all gets us to silly numbers, lets hope that happens.

[trader_3] 05/1/2021 15:12

pogue5 Jan '21 - 12:30 - 10138

More than a pipe dream according to CF and rather a key strategic decision for ORPH, over the coming months (in addition to everything else), as per below:

International Data Management & Technology Monetisation

Cathal Friel:

‘Open Orphan see’s itself very much as a data management technology company…WeR17;re very focused on data management and technology…. Hvivo has (30 years worth of) the worlds largest data base of infectious disease progression…Big tech companies, big wearable are very interested in that data…I think going forward…weR17;re going to be very much a data management company…itR17;s time now to build a world beating company’

Source: ORPH conference call Oct '20 (courtesy of Balman from the previously expired link)

[pogue] 05/1/2021 14:46

That's them scary what some sectors pay out, just got to move the database part of the business into that sector and we could be laughing. Another totally unrelated sector just now is new green energy stocks some of the valuations make Tesla look conservative. Meanwhile here its 2 to 3 times revenues lol

[m5] 05/1/2021 14:19

Sensyne health, market cap 142m. Revenue last FY 2.0m, huge losses. I don't quite get that valuation, but we certainly have substantial value.

[pogue] 05/1/2021 14:07

That was what I thought when he said it to be honest. I think it was the same night that there was a presentation on before from a medical company that sold access to NHS database and was valued at a silly amount when it had very little earnings. Maybe have to split the company to get that valuation going though.

[sh0wmethemoney] 05/1/2021 13:19

And data companies valued at higher valuation multiples than CRO companies. 🤞

[m5] 05/1/2021 13:03

Agreed pogue.

[pogue] 05/1/2021 12:59

I would agree with £1 of value but say that 25p of that will be the asset disposals hence my previous estimate for share price of 75p at end of year.

[m5] 05/1/2021 12:44

Agreed, many unknows. My target price is £1.00 right now, that gives a market cap of around 700m.

[pogue] 05/1/2021 12:30

Wearables is such a big unknown. I hope he screws the FAANGs hard for the data. If you want a hint CF did say we would be more a data driven company this year in one of his presentations. It was a throwaway remark and maybe just a pipedream but if its true then that means challenge studies are going to be eclipsed in income from the databases. Scary thought and one I try not to think on too hard lol