Oncimmune Share Discussion Threads

[brummy_git] 26/11/2022 07:18

There are 2 golden rules when investing in nascent healthcare stocks.

Find out here what they are & potentially how to profit from these secular tailwinds.

www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_vrci-llai-onc-activity-7002167778723950592-M7p9?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

[waterloo01] 25/11/2022 11:55

Jul 1, 2019

[dros1] 25/11/2022 11:52

where is the RNS ?

[dros1] 25/11/2022 11:52

hxxps://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/biodesix-acquires-oncimmune-s-u-s-lab-for-rule-lung-nodule-cancer-blood-test

[dros1] 03/11/2022 14:51

looks like a placing coming hear

[brummy_git] 05/10/2022 07:42

Marvellous long term future ahead for Oncimmune, a global leader in all things auto-antibody & immunodiagnostics.

Find out here why from CEO Adam Hill & Chairman Alistair Macdonald.

www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_video-qa-with-oncimmune-ceo-dr-adam-m-activity-6983329490898714625-lwvh?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

[40 fathoms] 05/10/2022 07:40

hTtps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/q-a-with-oncimmune-ceo-dr-adam-m-hill-and-chairman-alistair-macdonald-27d116b

Link to a company update/interview published today and crucially the CEO reiterated that they do not anticipate a need to come to market to fund organic growth.

[40 fathoms] 24/9/2022 03:31

@rambutan2

Yes, I think you are right this is a key pharagraph, but once again I think it suffers from their communication style which would benefit from being more explicit. I also think there is a mistake in the announcement, the cash margin requirement is a covenant to demonstrate (tested on quarterly basis) they have at least 9 months forward cash flow on hand, it is not at a rate of 9%.

I would have presented more like this

Gross Cash

31 May 2021 - 8.63 million
30 Nov 2021 - 2.79 million
31 May 2022 - 2.53 million

Net Debt

31 May 2021 - 0.53 million
30 Nov 2021 - 5.93 million
In Dec 2021 - Company drew down an additional 2.5 million from facility to finance expansion of US BD team
31 May 2022 - 8.16 million

I am afraid my hackles are always raised when I see the levels of interest and fees that IPF and their ilk are able to charge but when you think about it rationally I would rather pay them that and some warrants than be diluted and paying similar levels of cash to a broker.

The headroom is there to sign and convert contracts in to cashflow, this year is now all about execution. The RNS flow on new contract announcements over the next 6 months (which is seasonally the strong period) will be the key leading indicator and if we get positive and early RNS flow we should see the share price move up very substantially.

[rambutan2] 23/9/2022 13:48

I noted this:

Gross cash balance at the period end was GBP2.53M (31 May 2021: GBP8.63M; 30 November 2021: GBP2.97M) and net debt at the period end was GBP8.16M (31 May 2021: GBP0.83M; 30 November 2021: GBP5.39M), after investment, including capacity growth. The Company drew down an additional EUR3.0M (c. GBP2.50M) in December 2021 under the IPF facility to fund the acceleration in the ImmunoINSIGHTS business, including the expansion of the US-based commercial team.

In August 2022, the Group's renewed its debt banking facility with IPF Partners. The new terms provide for a 12-month deferral of all principal repayments until June 2023, no further issue of warrants, no change in the fixed existing cash margin rate of 9%, and the continued repayment of interest as from September 2022. The new facility terms are expected to provide the Group with a cash headroom to continue to grow the commercial pipeline and convert that pipeline into signed contracts, revenue, and cash. An arrangement fee of EUR EUR1.5M has been agreed which is payable at final maturity of the debt, with up to 50% (EUR EUR0.75M) of this fee able to be offset against any warrants already issued to IPF Partners.

[40 fathoms] 23/9/2022 00:16

Having reread the Interims I think there are a couple of important things to note.

Firstly they are forecasting to do more revenue in the first half from Immunoinsights GBP4.8 million than the whole business did last year. Even assuming no growth in the pipeline and 50% conversion rate this year and when added to the commercial backlog and also increased revenue from CDT lung GBP 12.5 million of revenue for 2023 does not look like a stretch.

At 80% gross margin and with the highlighted decrease in R&D and certain operational costs we will be very strongly cashflow positive. There is upside in both the conversion of the pipeline and also new prospects added in to the top of the funnel.

Seems to me the shareprice decline is an overreaction caused by a few factors including market sentiment, confusion around the change of the financial year (I saw comment about a miss on revenue, They had always said, possibly not explicitly enough, the forecast was for the 15th months and not the 12 months but others seem to have seen it differently) and I think they are still not up to scratch with the clarity of their message to the market ( all the information is there but you have to dig it out which can lead to misunderstanding and the management message getting lost).

[40 fathoms] 21/9/2022 08:33

The RNS has not been written in a way that makes it easy to understand, so it will be good to hear what Adam has to say and he can explain exactly what the outlook is.

But from a first reading it looks very much like the company will be decently cashflow positive in this financial year. If that is indeed the case buying now will be well rewarded. I think todays sellers have their eyes in the rearview mirror.

Quick maths suggests at this stage we are looking at revenue for this financial year of @ GBP12.5 million. Of which about 9.5 million will drop from the gross to net line. From that need to take out SG&A and we can strip out from this year numbers the one offs that were highlighted and also the significant reduction in the R&D that is flagged and then add a bit back for inflation you should be looking at positive operating cash flow of @ 4 to 5 million.

[eva_1989] 21/9/2022 07:17

Was waiting patiently for the drop

Think sub 50p coming and then will buy more

Added few now

[40 fathoms] 16/9/2022 00:32

hTtps://www.netguru.com/featured/oncimmune-healthcare

I have not seen this before and I could not find the app in any of the app stores so perhaps it has not been released yet.

Interesting but not game changing in and of itself but does suggest a management team that are focused on both the big picture and the nuts and bolts of the existing business.

[mikeh30] 05/5/2022 16:36

Couple of instis unloading. Reckon Genostics have gone against their agreement and are unloading. Plus there's always cash raise concerns. Like this company but it's been drifting for a year

[trotterstrading] 05/5/2022 14:29

Yeah it's rubbish!

[pinkie] 05/5/2022 06:20

Can any cast some light on the recent performance?

[40 fathoms] 09/4/2022 11:04

hTtps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBT_eNO8g18

For anyone who wants to get to grips with how the ImmunoINSIGHTS business works in practice and specifically in Immuno-oncology the link above provides a very good overview. It is presented by Oncimmune's Hans-Dieter Zucht and was posted last month.

[40 fathoms] 19/3/2022 03:37

A recent spotlight on ONC from Luminex who are a key partner for us given their XMAP technology.

hTtps://www.luminexcorp.com/blog/luminex-licensed-technologies-partner-spotlight-oncimmune/

[trotterstrading] 07/3/2022 18:21

Outstanding growth expected in H2! Cheap IMHO

[40 fathoms] 07/3/2022 12:05

Yet another contract. They have been a bit unlucky with the market back drop against which they have been announcing this string of contract awards.

[w t tutte] 06/3/2022 13:56

You probably don’t want JW to get it. Look how he got POLX …… you don’t hear him go on too much about the 100x potential on that one any more. In fact podcast suggests he has been trimming that position down.

[itsyou] 06/3/2022 10:15

Brummy_git,

Thanks for that and the one 2 one earlier in the week.

It's a hidden gem, but probably due to investors not understanding the tech, or the RNS content.

Even Justin in the last interview, with his FDA comme3nt, highlights a need for the company to do a plain non tech version of the RNS and what their tech does. Maybe some PR also to attract a wider audience before it gets snapped up on the cheap!

[brummy_git] 04/3/2022 15:44

Justin Waite & I of Vox Markets discussed Oncimmune here today (starts 49:00).

www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/stocks-to-follow-on-vox-markets-4th-march-2022-ef5d2a0