Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 31/10/2016 09:08

Hardman forecast 1.14p EPS this year and 1.25p EPS next year. With the various "blue sky" opportunities now at or approaching commercialisation they're almost in the current price for free.

ODX' only loan commitments relate to finance leases on PPE etc. If some further funding were required to accelerate growth or fund working capital, presumably ODX could presumably arrange loan/overdraft facilities given the relative security of their income streams and reasonable Balance Sheet.

[longshanks] 31/10/2016 08:11

Interesting to note that they highlight a deepening discount to NAV.I agree - it does sound like a small fund raise will be made: working capital is insufficient to support any upturn in sales.The last placing was at 17p. Given the growth potential I would anticipate them raising another £2m at the same price - with the BoD being significant participants.I doubt they will open it to the wider shareholder base: so if interested, i suggest you notify them of your interest through finnCap.

[p1nkfish] 31/10/2016 07:27

"Cash generation in the forecast period (2017-2018) has been boosted by the weakeness in sterling." By about 1.1M.

Funding round possible to accelerate growth. Have some cash handy in case they need to raise.

Hardman report today.

[p1nkfish] 29/10/2016 02:02

I might just be a pollyanna on this but the chart doesn't look too bad to me. Not like it is making new lows. The future could be very bright here.

[p1nkfish] 28/10/2016 13:41

Small fish in a big pond, space to grow into or get gobbled up.
Either way there is profit potential.

[longshanks] 28/10/2016 11:19

An interesting report to read.

Whilst it talks of there being 5 companies dominating the market...the truth is that it is only really one at the moment (Thermo Fisher) with approx 70% of the market: these four others (Omega included) account for 3% of the market in total.

In the annual report - the company noted that with Allersys they had developed 41 immunoassays for a development spend of £5.5m. A notable achievement and illustrates the relative high barrier there is in this market for new entrants.

The offering from Thermo Fisher is slick and impressive. It is clear that they will maintain a significant market lead for some time given their extensive portfolio of immunoassays. However, the current 41 allergens offered with Allersys is sufficient to meet the needs of most labs and with a clear road map to provide 120 immunoassays - I suspect they will be able to generate growing sales volumes.

Elsewhere ODX have an excellent reputation in food allergy testing: Food Print has FDA approval for sale in the US and is seeing rapid growth. Food Detective allows an "at home" diagnosis hasn't got FDA clearance but is seeing good growth elsewhere.

[rivaldo] 28/10/2016 09:31

Nice mention for ODX in rather larger company...



"Allergy diagnostics market to reach $3.8bn by 2024
By Juliet Preston
Post a comment / Oct 23, 2016 at 7:57 PM

Allergies remain big business for biotechs, a new Transparency Market Research report confirms, with data indicating the global market for allergy diagnostics will close to triple from $1.3 billion in 2015 to $3.8 billion in 2024.

Just five companies dominated 73 percent of the 2015 market: Thermo Fisher Scientific, Quest Diagnostics., BioMerieux, Omega Diagnostics Group, and Stallergenes Greer. according to a news release announcing the report.

etc"

[longshanks] 27/10/2016 10:14

Probably worth checking out ODX's twitter feed too.



Given the number of retweets they make about the work and thoughts of the International AIDS society, I don't think we can expect too much bad news on the CD4 development front.

[longshanks] 27/10/2016 09:23

CD4 isn't aimed for use in Europe - it is principally aimed for use in sub-saharan Africa.

35°C is a common threshold for usage of RDT's and is based on reasonable expectations that the kit can be kept at temperatures near that of blood.

Your objective here seem vexatious Buywell but there is no-one to buy your far-fetched claims. If you want to buy (well) - buy now. I doubt you will get in any cheaper.

I am not an expert chartist - and indeed think technical analysis is a grey art and often quite misleading. That said though, it appears to me that we are closing in on a very nice pennant with all this good news story brewing up in the background.

Looks ripe for a strong move north in the near future.


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[p1nkfish] 27/10/2016 07:01

We'll have to disagree there and you have been very careful with the chart section you have picked. Very poor interpretation.

[buywell3] 27/10/2016 00:38

The chart of ODX is not good , so putting positive spin on this at the moment is not justified


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The market agrees thus far with my take since the update

Plus CD4 has only been tested to 35 degrees C

This upper temp needs to be at least 45 degrees C and better still 50 degrees C

Much of the EU goes over 35 degrees C in the summer months , so that temp is not enough to go to market.

There remains an awkward technical problem to solve in my opinion and the CD4 update was downbeat as some here have commented upon.

If this means a major re-jig of the technology resulting in a specific RNS delaying CD4 yet again , then the way the chart is set up , previous lows could see a visit.

I note Chris Mills has reduced

[p1nkfish] 27/10/2016 00:37

It's still in a gentle up trend from start of 2012 (or q3, 2015) and depending on interpretation can run to about 22p as the top of the channel or 28/29p if it only follows previous patterns. The right news and this would go north of 30p.

Run towards 30-35M market cap wouldn't be a big surprise.

[p1nkfish] 27/10/2016 00:25

Sneller will have a tidy cash return from crx before year end.
A small amount of it might be recycled here with a bit of luck.
He's a veteran of micro and small cap disruptive growth and it's good to see him on the register here.

[longshanks] 26/10/2016 16:52

I am lost for words: you have no rational argument to assert anything that you have said or hypothesised over the last few days.The trading update was actually very positive on several fronts:1. Allersys is now actively being commercialised with an initial sale already agreed2. CD4 has successfully completed all tests in U.K. Hospitals. They are optimising the manufacturing process prior to shipping batches of kit out for field trials. This process is methodical and perhaps slower than many would like but we are inching closer to having a product that meets a large unmet need.3. Allergy/auto-immune sales in Germany are no longer in decline. Income is ahead both in Euros and Sterling.4. Food intolerance sales are motoring ahead in all regions. They have recently won a large new customer in North America that could see sales driven higher even faster.5. The Pune manufacturing site has completed certification and will shortly be issued with a license and will imminently start production of malaria and pregnancy test kits.The only negative area was in infectious diseases where, whilst ahead 1% due to currency benefits, they saw increased competition eroding margins in some markets.Share prices are fickle - esp. in low cap AIM stocks. Prices ebb and flow with demand: currently there are few buyers but I am sure that will change.

[buywell3] 26/10/2016 05:05

Like I said flat lining for the last 5 years

And now currency gets used as an excuse for under performance

The latest update has convinced nobody as the fall-back in share price clearly shows

[longshanks] 25/10/2016 08:01

IMO your research is flawed. The agreement was changed into an exclusive distribution agreement for certain regions at a time when it suited IDH to do so. Sales in those regions have not yet commenced - so there is no link to IDH's current performance with that of ODX.Whether IDH maintain that license is questionable but that question is not itself really of any significant concern to ODX. ODX (and Scottish Enterprise grant funds) are continuing to invest heavily in this product line so I doubt the investment to date is earmarked for a write-off.We should get an indication of initial sales volumes/agreements at the next trading statement; you would be a fool to be short when that occurs IMO.

[buywell3] 25/10/2016 03:48

If you look back you will see that ODX changed the conditions of the licensing agreement with IDH

Which says to me they have some IDH concerns

If IDH hit trouble then one would imagine the licensing agreement would also

In other words are ODX exposed to the current IDH downtrend which will be a 3yr one within a few months

[longshanks] 24/10/2016 13:35

Just as an aside: the company agreed an exclusive distribution license with IDH back in April 2013 for the Allersys application with iSYS.It is worth noting that the beta-testing sites (probable one of which is the location of the recent announced sale) were cited to be in Italy and Spain; regions not covered by the IDH exclusive distribution license.The development of this allergen assay has taken far longer than originally anticipated. Now that we are in the commercialisation stage, and with good existing sales channels I would hope to see a steady take-up of the system from this point on. That itself suggests to me that some corporate activity could be imminent: rather than finalise the licensing agreement, perhaps IDH may be tempted to make a cash offer to buy Allersys from ODX (development team included).

[longshanks] 24/10/2016 09:29

LolI would short it if I were you buywell...or perhaps you have.ODX and IDH are collaborating on a product line to compete with a dominant market player in automated allergic assays. Given the direction IDH are taking towards assays with smaller more niche markets, there is a possibility that the iSYS platform won't become as big an earner as originally intended, but there are other assay platforms out there and the likelihood is that most are currently tied to a single monopoly supplier of validated allergens. Allersys also is attracting significant grant awards and one must therefore suspect that whilst the relationship with IDH poses a risk, the risk has been properly assessed and deemed worthy of increased investment.Anyway Buywell - welcome to the party, but on a personal level I suggest you don't become too exposed to a short position. There is a lot of positive news flow anticipated in the next 6-12 months and whilst the price is struggling to gain traction at present, I am confident this will change.

[p1nkfish] 24/10/2016 06:43

IDH have had problems since mid 2011 approx.

[buywell3] 24/10/2016 00:47

This company has a licensing agreement with IDH

IDH just issued a profit warning and the chart shows the company is doing very badly

What percentage of business in millions GDP is Omega doing with IDH ?

IDH chart



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ODX earnings per share are now less than they were 5 years ago

Turnover has only gone up 12% in the last 5 years

The company is treading water at best

[p1nkfish] 21/10/2016 22:39

Perhaps they don't want the attention yet until potential jumps over to results.
If so I very much respect that and it can be a sign of confidence.

They know they don't have to manage the share price and it will take care of itself in time and be based on genuine strong fundamentals, not just potential and hope.

No need to attract speculators.

[dibs61] 21/10/2016 16:40

barrywhit - good points, I agree. Was also a bit surprised that the allergen success was modestly hidden away in a comment embedded within the trading update RNS. As you say it warranted an RNS of its own and really press home the positive message. It seems to have got lost in a few subsequent small bored PI sales!

[davr0s] 21/10/2016 11:16

Oh I can be very patient but not when the share can't get any traction - no point being patient and losing money. Learnt that the hard way. Good luck to holders and if it meets my buying criteria again I'll be back