Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 19/1/2015 12:42

Bargain time here? Big fall on only £50k of trades.

Forecasts are 1.1p EPS for the year about to end and 1.35p EPS next year.

Plus ODX have plenty of cash - £1.5m net, against a £14.7m m/cap, and a big surplus of receivables due for collection.

And of course CD4 and everything else are in for free at this level.

I can see that the pound's strength against the euro may have a small negative effect on European earnings on translation, but this is relatively minor with the core business growing and the other factors above.

[barrywhit] 14/1/2015 13:03

We could do with a positive update.....

[rjd123] 14/1/2015 13:00

More selling and only me on the boards.

[rjd123] 13/1/2015 13:11

Bit of a drop today?

[rivaldo] 18/12/2014 11:50

Yep, particularly director buying from the FD as he's usually the poorest Board member and most reluctant to part with his money....

[barrywhit] 18/12/2014 11:33

Good to see the Director buying continuing, hopefully good news in the New Year.

[rivaldo] 01/12/2014 10:43

Even more director buying today - good to see the Sales Director weighing in at 19.12p with another £6k:



I was very happy with core H1 trading and the optimistic H2 outlook - it was better than I expected. Now a case of waiting, hopefully for just a few months, for CD4 news.

[barrywhit] 28/11/2014 16:13

rivaldo, It dropped too low on small volume, but that's what happens when targets aren't met and delays are added to forward statements....but will rise as quick on any positive news......

[rivaldo] 28/11/2014 15:47

The share price fell far too low imo, and has now recovered to a more reasonable level, though given the fundamentals and potential could still go further.

David Evans' share buying in particular is a pretty meaty amount and is a reassuring sign which has encouraged others to buy in to what is always a pretty volatile small cap share.

As stated by others above, in a couple of years time the share price should (imho) be a great deal higher than it is now, so whether you have bought at 14p or 19p will hopefully be irrelevant!

[barrywhit] 28/11/2014 14:53

All very true Hyperboreus, just wonder whether it has been tipped anywhere or it is all down to Director buying, happy to hold medium to long term and will add when funds become available, 85% is held in my SIPP......have a good week-end all...

[hyperboreus] 28/11/2014 14:46

I hope you are right barrywhit, I have enough here to be perfectly honest with you. Today just goes to show how crazy the investment game in small caps is in my opinion.

David Evans and Andrew Shepherd shell out 'relative petty cash' as far as they are concerned, I know it gives small investors confidence to have a punt themselves but what has changed since ODX announced results a couple of days ago, bog all!

Small punters are piling in now around 19p when they could have picked them up on Wednesday sub 14P, it takes all sorts as they say but I'd be very surprised if they don't fall back again unless there is some positive news in the next 3 months or so.

I'm sure the institutions that shelled out £4 million in May 13 will no doubt be watching this one closely.

I am chilled out as far as my holding in ODX is concerned, let us hope we all make a nice bob or two down the line, good luck to everyone :-)

[barrywhit] 28/11/2014 13:16

hyperboreus, you may not see 15p again let alone 12p........

[barrywhit] 28/11/2014 10:38

Another Director buy, also wouldn't be surprised if the delayed 100k wasn't also a Director Buy.......nice to see........imo

[rivaldo] 28/11/2014 08:58

Yep, a meaty £26k buy - but the best bit is that it's from the highly respected David Evans, who knows his onions in this sector. Excellent news:

[barrywhit] 28/11/2014 07:28

Good size Director buy, shows confidence in the company going forward,

[leedslad001] 26/11/2014 19:33

Still here an buying never expected to be able to get more at this price! when i invest its for 5-10 years. The lads that were in MDW will know this. All mine are in ISA's so when i do cash in its all tax free. My first sells will be at 50p in 2-3 years time. Unless they are snapped up by a big US Pharma. Good luck all and Happy Christmas as i am going back to sleep lol. :-)

[rivaldo] 26/11/2014 15:55

Cheers hyperboreus, I do indeed remember! The unexpected delays to CD4 have brought about your desired price.

Finncap's 28p target is understandable to me in valuation terms, but as you say is unlikely to be achieved for a while yet.

With a projected 1.4p EPS next year, one could justify a P/E of say 14 for the core business, i.e around 20p per share. Then add in something for the worth/potential of CD4 and the IDH collaboration, and a 28p target is easily attainable - how much that potential should be valued at is of course highly subjective. It could be much more or much less than 8p per share, but it's worth something for sure!

Hopefully the suggested good trading for H2 will therefore form a base around current share price levels, and then all we need is better news on CD4....

[hyperboreus] 26/11/2014 15:21

I admire your enthusiasm and bullishness here Rivaldo, even the Leeds fans have gone quiet, thank God, for the time being.

You will no doubt recall back in July that I stated I might be tempted to add to my holding here if the share price went sub 15p which at that time you thought was highly unlikely.

Well I haven't added yet as I think it is highly likely to fall sub 12p if the delays in CD4 continue.

Finncap 28p target seems unrealistic to me given projected 1.4 EPS for next year.

Incidentally I am still a relaxed holder of ODX, at the moment :-)

[rivaldo] 26/11/2014 13:39

Finncap today make no changes to their forecast of 1.2p EPS this year and 1.4p EPS next year, and retain their 28p target price.

[rivaldo] 26/11/2014 08:55

Costs relating to the Visitect CD4 Aids test and the allergy development programme are obviously going to be capitalised - it would be ridiculous, and against accounting standards, to expense them at this stage :o))

ODX have £2.1m of cash, with relatively small long-term borrowings to offset, so should hopefully see no or minimal dilution - given the profitable core business - through to commercialisation of the Aids test and the allergy programme.

[boros10] 26/11/2014 08:19

.....free cashflow is negative to the tune of £700k and the company capitalised £400k of development costs.

[rivaldo] 26/11/2014 07:53

Pretty good core results considering, achieving 0.5p EPS in H1 despite the problems in Germany and some supply delays.

The back orders falling into H2 for infectious diseases should mean an even brighter H2 given that food intolerance is booming. Forecasts of 1.2p EPS for the year look perfectly reasonable.

[barrywhit] 26/11/2014 07:25

Regarding outlook, David Evans, Chairman, said:

"We are optimistic about the continuing performance of our core business in the second half of this year, particularly in Food Intolerance, where we have built significant traction with new customers over recent years. We share your frustration with the inevitable delay that is occurring with Visitect(R) CD4 since the last trading update. However, we believe we have taken the right course of action with the recent programme changes to prevent similar problems occurring with the product after its market launch. Despite the setback, we continue to receive feedback from the HIV/Global Health arena that convinces us that the market opportunity and outlook for CD4 remains undiminished

[rivaldo] 25/11/2014 08:03

Encouraging to hear of "good progress" from IDH's results this morning:



"In March 2011, we granted Omega Diagnostics Group plc ("Omega") a worldwide licence to develop and distribute allergy tests on the IDS-iSYS automated instrument. Good progress has been made and Omega anticipate launching the first wave of 40 allergens in 2015 eventually increasing the range of allergens tested to 150. IDS has the option to be appointed the exclusive distributor for these allergy assays in its direct territories."

[barrywhit] 18/11/2014 11:23

Morning All,

100k sell just gone through, someone has got fed up waiting...