Novae Share Discussion Threads

[vikcom] 09/10/2006 20:12

not too surprised to see this go up a bit. at the moment this is one of the few good value buys around.

[jancarl1] 09/10/2006 15:12

Moving nicely today after some (or all) of the stock overhang was cleared last friday. However 30p is going to prove a high hurdle to pass. We need some more good news here.

[jancarl1] 05/10/2006 10:40

Sector (insurance non-life)is moving ahead quite substantially as we are nearing the end of the hurricane season. Will make new highs soon. Unfortunately NVA from a chart perspective appears to be almost completely uncorrelated since July 06. 30% upside to catch the latest sector move since then.

[slainegardener] 03/10/2006 18:30

Thanks JanCarl. I value the information you provide to this board.

[jancarl1] 03/10/2006 06:23

think of it as a probability distribution curve with long tails along the time axis with highest probablitiies mid to end September rapidly declining before and after. Therefore the risk of a major hurricane season for this year will have passed in two weeks time.

[slainegardener] 28/9/2006 12:34

I thought the hurricane season finished at the end of November.

[18bt] 18/9/2006 11:28

They have a lot of disappointments to make good on: I would have thought that it may take another set of results to start some buyers coming back. Looks good for the medium term against the sector.

[jancarl1] 17/9/2006 16:27

Some additional thoughts on share price potential: NVA current PE and P/book at 5.6 and 0.9 respectively. Sector pricing (Averaging AML, BRE, CGL, HSX, KIN, WUN, AUW) more like PE 8 and P/book 1.2 (high/low PE 8.8/6.4; high/low P/book 1,9; 1.1). Therefore on the low end fair value should be 31-33, on the average 36-40. Hence an upside potential of 45% against sector average. Plus the sector as such will look dirt cheap once the hurricane season is over, i.e. in 4 weeks.

[jancarl1] 15/9/2006 12:33

PTGInt,

what are you disappointed about?
2.5p of earnings an 30p NAV seems fair enough for me, as 18BT stated: increasing confidence. Now it is all down to the next 4 weeks of the ongoing hurricane season. Forecasts so far remain confident of no major desasters, since water temperature in Mexican gulf is 2 degrees lower than last year. If nothing major happens 5p seem to be achievable in 2006, which given the current share price is quite substantial.
I must say however that I would have loved to learn more about NICLs progress to date. Therefore I share a bit of your disappointment.

[ptgint] 15/9/2006 09:52

I expect (and hope so !) 188T but still feel disappointed with the results. Any share price recovery is going to be slow imo.

[18bt] 15/9/2006 06:20

Results free of any major horrors and increasing confidence that the £20m of unused exceptionals for the run-off will be sufficient. Is this company now ready to turn the corner and stand at a slight premium to net assets of 31p?

[18bt] 14/9/2006 18:28

Results tomorrow I believe. Most of the other LLoyd's results have been positive. As well as trading, progress on the UK insurance company will be interesting.

[jancarl1] 07/8/2006 13:06

geoffrey,

announcement in my view was nothing to write home about. I was dissapointed about the 3% increase in rates. 5 mln consumption of provisions seems still to high. Obviously no big news on the new venture apart from its initiation.

On the positive side, forecasts are more or less confirmed. Therefore I would have to agree with vikcom. Do not expect to see serious share price movements before the end of the hurricane season, i.e. end of November. By then some or all of the following will have occured:

1. No Katrina or Andrew, but 5-10 smaller events (below cat. 5)
2. New Business on track to deliver Business Plan (60mln new business in 06)
3. Further interest rate increases boost investment income
4. Consumption of provisions in single digit areas in q3 and q4

Since I put a high probability on these events to occur I would expect a share price of around 40p by year end and probably 50-60p by next march. However, given that we have just entered the traditionally volatile hurricane season, there is a good probability of the share price hitting 22-23p in the course. I will continue to hold my lot but abstain from checking share price more frequently than once per month. Not for the faint hearted.

All Imho

Best regards

Jan-Carl

[geoffrey] 31/7/2006 09:46

ursus & vikcom and others - How do you interpret today`s announcement? It sounds suitably cautious, below premium expectations, but cautious risk taking should at least be profitable? The old SVB info looks OK to me. Would welcome more expert comments!

[vikcom] 29/7/2006 20:14

the valuation is very tempting. if the company turn things round as they suggest, this could be a very good buy. the next results should be good, but the recovery may not be confirmed until the the full year results are similar.

if the hurricane season is not too bad this could be a winner, but only for the brave.

[ursus] 29/7/2006 13:50

hte market seems to doubt the business model for the new money....

[geoffrey] 29/7/2006 11:04

We are still below the 30p Rights Issue price which thankfully was underwritten. Surprised there are no postings on this BB since23/6 - when can we expect comment or news?!

[azalea] 23/6/2006 12:11

The underwriters may well sell shares that they are left holding at a discount, but NVA still gets its money.

I do not hold but have been drawn by the directors purchases since July 05 and list of major shareholders.

[jancarl1] 17/6/2006 11:01

To my understanding the rights issue was fully underwritten. Therefore the risk of placing the shares remains with the underwriter, not the company. Business plans should thus be solidly funded. The only drag being the hurricane season ahead of us. However, odds of another Katrina or Andrew are 1:19, i.e. another 19 years to go unless climate change proves to be more dynamic. I remain fairly confident.

[mrwhits1] 16/6/2006 08:14

just out of interest what will happen to the rights issue, as they only have a 15% uptake, and have said they will try to get the institutions to buy, does this mean the nav will go down if they buy at a cheaper price, or they just get a discount and the rights are still priced at 30p so no change to nav?

[slainegardener] 15/6/2006 12:29

Well I think this is just too cheap to ignore and have bought a little more. The forcast pe is the lowest i've seen in the sector!

[effortless cool] 09/6/2006 05:57

I was addressing the welshman - sorry for the confusion! - but what's the point of starting a new thread and not picking the chart options?

Under the circumstances you deserve a reply. The experts are probably right that there will be more severe hurricanes than usual this year. They can't tell us anything about the lottery of whether and where they make landfall, however, which is what will drive the losses.

[slainegardener] 08/6/2006 21:14

I was just making a comment you snob. Why dont you make one? Or is this thread just for certain city types. Stick your dipstick where the sun dont shine and open your mouth to a decent debate. I am always willing to learn!

[slainegardener] 08/6/2006 12:16

Trading below NAV now so on that score it offers good value. I guess the start of the hurricane season is a drag on the share price I read somewhere that the weather experts are predicting another terrible hurricane season. Experts are usually wrong IMHO. The contrarian in me says this is good value. Bought some more today at just over 28p. Fingers crossed. This is the riskiest share I hold by far.