Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 16/12/2024 10:31

Brucie your link :-

[philanderer] 16/12/2024 10:21

Morning everyone.

Overcast but mild with a breeze.

kiwi, that is such a sad wildlife story.

Portfolio 100% red. No santa rally this year. A very poor China data dump has seen to that.

[brucie5] 16/12/2024 10:19

Morning Gents (and any Ladies present?)-
Dean, that's a great series of posts and exactly what I value from this sort of thread, wrt folio management. Thank you and well done on your continued outperformance. I like your 5% rule, which sounds eminently sensible.

For value minded bargain seekers, IPX might be worth a look following it's walloping on Friday. Wealth managers have had a torrid year, but may be a sector worth following in 2025; i notice CR has turned positive on LIO, for example.

Thanks to Edmonda on the IPX bb for sharing this:
the loss of the SJP mandate is a blow to top-line, but examination of the impact shows revs and adj operating profits falling by smaller proportions.
Equity Dev reduce estimates and their fundamental value/share to 600p - but that is still more than 2x last price levels.
See/hear the new research note in full:
[...]

[aleman] 16/12/2024 10:14

While overall beer drinking was slightly down between July and October, the volume of Guinness consumed from kegs was up more than fifth.

Some have pointed to so-called "Guinnfluencers" on social media for helping to bolster the black stout's popularity among women and young people.

Beer shortages in the UK are rare but normally linked to supply chain issues.

Stronger ale and stout sales have been doing fine because they are naturally brewed to higher gravity and not watered down after. Cooking bitters and light ales that used to be low gravity brewed now get brewed to high gravity and watered down to get more volume through the same equipment. The traditional yeasts, used to low alcohol levels, can struggle with the higher alcohol content so might get evolved or swapped and not taste the same, and there are quality issues when refermentation starts if not stored at fridge temperature. I'm fed up of bottles erupting with cloudy ale going down the sink so I just go for the stronger stuff now which does not go off like this and can still be as nice as back in the 80s and 90s. I've told folk to stop buying me bottled ales as so much quickly goes off. Plus the weaker run of the mill stuff mostly has a thin, metallic tang.

Overall, I'm drinking less and the big brewers are destroying the industry again like they did in the 70s when they tried shoving pasteurised keg beer down everybody's throats. This time, it's cheaper manufacturing techniques ruining weaker ales' quality AND putting more and more naff keg beer in pubs hidden behind gimmicky marketing as an alternative.

[gateside] 16/12/2024 09:42

Diageo needs to get their act together.httpS://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0ewqx53q8do.amp

[mrphil] 16/12/2024 08:45

Morning all.

Thanks for updating wllm.

Some interesting posts regarding performance there! I have tried to spread my lot out a bit more as the pot has increased over the years to try to reduce volatility. The % movements seem to be bit smaller so maybe it’s working?!

[malcolm caton] 16/12/2024 08:30

Morning.

Thankd for update wllm

[wllmherk] 16/12/2024 08:08

I wasn't fully paying attention to the new Road tax rates to be implemented next year, some of the increases are eye watering, not sure how this grows the economy?



Mild but windy this morning,

wllm :)

[skinny] 16/12/2024 07:20

Good Morning.

Very mild again @10C currently.

[philanderer] 15/12/2024 17:04

wllm thanks for updating.

A good point for QPR at Bristol City yesterday. BBC says 30% posession and just a couple of shots :-)

Thoroughly recommend 'Conclave' We went to the cinema yesterday. Top performances, story and production.

A local walk this morning on a new path The Ramblers have opened up. An offshoot stream from the local river. Looked like kingfisher territory and it definitely was. I saw a beauty flying upstream. Sandwiches sitting on a fallen tree trunk. Very mild.

[skinny] 15/12/2024 11:29

DrB - it would have been hydrogen facing shares ITM & CWR in particular.





Investment trusts generally, have underperformed for me - meaning that there are some eye watering yields currently.

[gateside] 15/12/2024 11:25

I have identified a some Global Investment Trusts and Funds that I will look at drip feeding into over the coming 12 months.
This will allow greater exposure to the Technology sector, which is only going to go from strength to strength in the years ahead.

[gateside] 15/12/2024 11:22

Morning everyone :)

Glad I had a little grumble at my portfolio's performance, as it seems to have sparked some excellent posts.

I'm sure it has not gone unnoticed that DF performs consistently well year in year out. Well done DF.
I do like his method of top slicing and redistributing to smaller holdings.

Out of my 28 holding, my ten biggest, account for 60% of my portfolio. Maybe that is too concentrated?

It's the high yielding renewable investment trusts that have hit my portfolio tis year, hopefully they will recover as UK interest rates are eventually cut more!

Large holdings in BHP and RIO which are down 24% and 16% respectively in 2024 has not helped my portfolio.

Will not make any drastic changes to my portfolio, as although the last two years have been poor, over the last 5 years it has been fairly good.

[dr biotech] 15/12/2024 11:21

What did you do right in 2020 skinny? You were out of sight..

[skinny] 15/12/2024 09:50

Good Morning.

Aleman, as per my link in post 91263 above, there is also :-

Final Standings 2019
Pos:Chg:Name::::::::Performance
1st = Blueliner::::::::+26.35% (Winner)
2nd = MrP::::::::::::::+24.05% (Runner Up)
3rd = Philanderer::::::+22.54%
4th ↑ Skinny:::::::::::+20.98%
5th ↓ DeanForrester::::+19.85%
6th = Aleman:::::::::::+13.30%
7th = Wllmherk:::::::::+10.04% (Wooden Spoon)

[aleman] 14/12/2024 22:13

Goodness, DF, that sounds much fussier than I had anticipated. And yet, who can criticise when it has worked very well in the medium term? Maybe, I and others should be congratulating you on doing well recently and investigating what elements might transfer to our own methods. Thanks for your comprehensive response.

I've managed to find some more figures but I don't think these kind of tables go back further than this in their current form.


wllmherk
1 Jan '21 - 00:51 - 64158 of 91267

Final Standings 31/12/2020

Pos:Chg:Name:::::::::Performance
1st = Skinny:::::::::::+16.37%
2nd = MrP::::::::::::::+4.70%
3rd = Aleman:::::::::::+2.70%
4th = Carpingtris::::::+1.69%
5th = Blueliner::::::::+1.48%
6th = Gateside:::::::::-2.74%
7th = Freddie Ferret:::-4.22%
8th = DeanForrester::::-6.38%
9th = Philanderer::::::-13.44%
10th = Wllmherk::::::::-19.09%

Cheers :-)
wllmherk
31 Dec '21 - 21:04 - 71406 of 91267

Final Standings 31/12/2021

Pos:Chg:Name:::::::::::Performance

1st = DeanForrester::::+20.79%
2nd = MrP::::::::::::::+19.75%
3rd = Blueliner::::::::+19.50%
4th = wllmherk:::::::::+17.82%
5th = Philanderer::::::+16.67%
6th = Gateside:::::::::+16.01%
7th = Aleman:::::::::::+15.90%
8th = Skinny:::::::::::+11.60%
9th = Carpingtris::::::+9.00%
10th = FreddieFerret:::-28.43%


wllmherk
31 Dec '22 - 15:49 - 78108 of 91257

Final Standings 30/12/2022

Pos:Chg:Name::::::::::Performance

1st = Gateside:::::::: +12.61%
2nd = Aleman:::::::::: +6.70%
3rd = DeanForrester::: +1.88%
4th = wllmherk:::::::: -0.76%
5th = Blueliner::::::: -1.07%
6th = MrP::::::::::::: -5.15%
7th = Malcolm Caton::: -6.53%
8th = Philanderer::::: -6.75%
9th = Carpingtris::::: -12.29%
10t ↑ Dr Biotech:::::: -14.08%
11t ↓ Skinny:::::::::: -14.69%

wllmherk
30 Dec '23 - 09:31 - 85006 of 91257

Final Standings 29/12/2023

Pos:Chg:Name::::::::::Performance

1st ↑ Dr Biotech::::::+8.08%
2nd ↓ DeanForrester:::+7.50%
3rd = Philanderer:::::+7.00%
4th = MrP:::::::::::::+4.52%
5th ↑ Malcolm Caton:::+2.76%
6th ↓ Blueliner:::::::+2.50%
7th = Wllmherk::::::::+1.70%
8th = Skinny::::::::::-1.41%
9th = Gateside::::::::-2.03%
10t = Carpingtris:::::-2.45%
11t = Aleman::::::::::-8.30%

[deanforester] 14/12/2024 12:40

Aleman, what I do is based on shares movement relative to the market. Some always do better and some worse. I have 35 holdings, and so set a limit of 1.5 times the median holding weight as a weight limit. In the past, with smaller portolios, I have use twice the median and 10%. My first trimming was in 1997, when LLOY got to about 16% by weight and the then Zeneca was also over 10%, so both were trimmed back.

As a further measure to avoid over concentration, I set a limit of 5% on both contribution to dividend income and share of portfolio cost. AS usually top up by 20%, this means that any share with those factors exceeding 4.2% are disqualified for being topped up. When I trim, it is normally by 25%, which normally allows at least two shares to be topped up.

I have a ranking system for topping up, which takes the yield as one factor, where 1 is the highest, and portfolio weight ranked inversely, so 1 is the loewest weight. Add them together and rank the sum. Here is the working for that ranking:

Holding Weight Yld W+Y RankADM 21 18 39 21AV. 27 7 34 15AZN 17 31 48 30BA. 24 30 54 32BATS 23 3 26 7BHP 26 12 38 20BLND 16 9 25 5BP. 18 10 28 9BT.A 11 14 25 6DGE 4 28 32 14GSK 8 20 28 10HLN 14 33 47 29IGG 30 17 47 28IMB 35 6 41 24IMI 33 35 68 35KGF 28 16 44 26LGEN 9 1 10 2LLOY 19 15 34 17NG. 31 11 42 25PHP 6 5 11 3PSON 32 32 64 34RIO 22 8 30 13RKT 13 22 35 18S32 5 34 39 23SGRO 3 23 26 8SHEL 15 21 36 19SMDS 20 26 46 27SSE 10 24 34 16TATE 1 29 30 12TSCO 34 25 59 33TW. 25 4 29 11UKW 7 2 9 1ULVR 12 27 39 22UU. 29 19 48 31VOD 2 13 15 4





Although UKW ranks top, it is ruled out because its share of income is over 5%, as you will see from this top-up table:

Top-up Income Cost Rank EPIC Rank EPIC % Income Rank Epic % Cost1 UKW 1 UKW 5.59% 1 VOD 5.18%2 LGEN 2 IMB 5.41% 2 PHP 4.54%3 PHP 3 BATS 4.97% 3 LLOY 4.52%4 VOD 4 TW. 4.90% 4 BLND 4.36%5 BLND 5 LGEN 4.77% 5 BT.A 4.28%6 BT.A 6 AV. 4.62% 6 IGG 4.08%7 BATS 7 RIO 4.33% 7 UKW 3.66%8 SGRO 8 NG. 3.99% 8 BP. 3.63%9 BP. 9 PHP 3.69% 9 GSK 3.61%10 GSK 10 BLND 3.59% 10 AV. 3.56%11 TW. 11 BP. 3.57% 11 TW. 3.56%12 TATE 12 BHP 3.52% 12 BATS 3.52%13 RIO 13 IGG 3.26% 13 KGF 3.38%14 DGE 14 LLOY 3.20% 14 LGEN 3.37%15 AV. 15 KGF 3.08% 15 BHP 2.99%16 SSE 16 UU. 3.04% 16 IMB 2.99%17 LLOY 17 BT.A 2.92% 17 TSCO 2.95%18 RKT 18 ADM 2.86% 18 RKT 2.91%19 SHEL 19 TSCO 2.46% 19 S32 2.79%20 BHP 20 SHEL 2.43% 20 UU. 2.77%





The disqualifications mean that currently SGRO and BP. rank first and second for topping up.

I hope that is clear enough.

DF

[deanforester] 14/12/2024 12:25

Aologies for a late report. We had a slight hiatus yesterday, when we forgot Mrs DF's appointment with her farrier, and so time got eaten up. A snooze after shoppong this morning has not helped either.

3/7 on the quiz.

I'm down -0.014% on the day today (FTSE100 -0.138%), down -0.24% on the week (FTSE100 -0.10%), but up +9.02% YTD (FTSE100 +7.33% and HIX +6.68%).

Worst falls: RIO -2.00%, UKW -1.40% and BA. -1.28%.

Best rises: DGE +2.35%, SMDS +1.48% and AV. +1.10%.

DGE seems to be having a pre-Christmas surge. Miners unhappy again.

The front passed through about 8am this morning, leaving a bit of blue sky for a while, but mostly cloudy.

Enjoy the weekend.

DF

[aleman] 14/12/2024 11:18

D.F. doing consistently well in recent years is interesting. I believe he religiously uses a mechanical weighting allocation to trim and add to (larger cap?) stocks after modest movements. Possibly this method might perform well in a sideways market, whereas such as I only tend to buy and sell the lot after larger moves. Perhaps you might care to elaborate on your technique, DF?

The sun is out and the house is heeating itself for a change! What a lovely change.