Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 05/1/2017 09:27

Morning, all. -1.4C low here for the school run. Not much sign of hoar frost, though. The air is very dry again, which is good as I can already feel the warmth of the sun even though it is very low down.

A quick check of house volumes for Yorkshire shows sales have slowed a bit further. October volumes are about 35-36% down on the same month last year. Yorkshire seems to be close to average as the effect spreads out from London. Some London regions are down over 50%. Past experience says such massive falls should have a huge effect on the economy and yet we are not seeing much as yet. Strange.



Interestingly, NW London shows one of the worst falls of just over 50% and its October volume figure is almost identical to October 2008 - the bottom of the last recession. Central London is hardly representative but that is down 1/3rd in volume from 2008 and is down over 59% in the last year. How can London not be in recession?



The conflicting economic indicators in recent months are just bizarre.

[skinny] 05/1/2017 08:53

Good Morning.

Another bright, frosty start here.

One of my New Year S/Bs - CIU has a good update this morning.

[mrphil] 05/1/2017 08:10

Morning all. Quick look in before taking the granddaughter swimming.

Chilly -1.7C start with a clear blue sky, perfect winter weather!

It was either BDEV or CLLN to add last week and I chose the latter - wrong decision?

[mrphil] 04/1/2017 22:39

I'm sure our local out of town shopping village is only successful due to the high number of eateries, and I'm not convinced the shops themselves are that successful.

[aleman] 04/1/2017 20:23

freddie - online sales were up around 20% for Black Friday/Cyber Monday which eased as Christmas neared. After Christmas, online sales were up about 6%. (Various sources that deal with online payments - not necessarily fully representative) Online sold well but does bricks and mortar discounting undermine online margins? Probably not too much as many surfers won't even check out physical shops.

Within online sales, it is worth noting that some retailers have unsatisfactory mobile device offerings/platforms and pretty much all the online growth came from mobile. Some retailers are still trying to sort out "desktop" website offerings while the real growth has moved to mobile. Christmas is unusual in that many want to surf for Christmas presents in private (bus/train/lunchbreak?) rather than in the family home. This big mobile surge in December may not apply all year round but will be a growing theme. Then there is the problem of economic and consumer-friendly delivery and return. There are lots of offerings in that space. Some will win and some won't.

I can guess that a few retailers like ASOS and BooHoo know where things are going but many bricks and mortar chains are falling behind and it may be too late for some. Shops are closing all over the place and councils are much of the problem by refusing to cut rent and rates, STILL increasing parking charges to make up for shortfalls caused by shop closures, and trying to stop other food and leisure going into what they deem are retail areas. Councils are driving retailers and other potential tenants out in some cases, as they try maintain old ideas of what city centres and shopping areas should look like.

Should every town centre now be a tourist destination, with more food and galleries and specialist shops while chain store sales go online? Where do budget shops fit in? Should they move to suburbs? They're needed but can put off leisure spenders in city centres. Are shop unit the right size and in the right places? Can councils adapt to revenue changes? Everything is changing and it's unclear what the overall spend is doing. I'm fascinated by the social consequences as well as the economic ones.

I still tend to think consumer are under pressure and moving downmarket. That's why B&M shares rose 9.5% on their strong update. Next fell 14%.

[blueliner] 04/1/2017 19:05

+0.23% folio today. [FTSE250 +0.06%]

Highest value risers : IGR +6%, GVC +1.5%, MCS +5.3%, BT.A +2.5%, RTC +4.7%.

Worst value fallers : TCAP -3.2%, BLT -1.4%, BEZ -1.2%.

MNC, a founder member of the Folio 95% club, have consolidated every 50 shares for 1 share, which has mean't recalculating every transaction [9 in total] on the ADVFN portfolio otherwise I was showing a £17000 profit on the day. if only :)

[deanforester] 04/1/2017 18:03

I'm down -0.076% on teh day today (FTSE100 +0.165%).

Worst falls: MKS -7.60% (-6.1%), KGF -2.83% (-0.5%) and RB. -1.98% (-0.5%).

Best rises: TW. +5.15% (+3.8%), BT.A +3.72% (+2.5%) and VOD +2.93% (+1.6%).

Those changes are from 31 Dec close. Don't know why Bloomberg are doing that. ADVFN's figures are in brackets, and their biggest fallers are MKS, PSON and BLT. Biggest risers are TW., BT.A and INDV.

That late spike seems very odd. There has to be a reason for it.

Pub lunch at the Jack & Jill was very pleasant.

DF

[mrphil] 04/1/2017 17:56

Certainly makes sense Freddie, with the added issue of the pressure on the BTL market where smaller landlords must be starting to throw the towel in. Having said that, I still see property as a reasonable long term investment and don't see a house price slump any time soon. Despite thousands of new homes going up around here to supposedly ease the pressure on demand, prices are still rising and the new houses are being occupied long before the cement has dried!

Just checked my HL account and I am pleased to say a couple of dividends and increases in the managed funds have put a small overall gain on the SIPP so far this year!

[freddie ferret] 04/1/2017 17:38

First a comment on the FTSE 100, as in recent trading days the move upward came right at the end of the todays trading day. I believe institutions want it this way.

There has been talk by the BBC and others that the recent rally is a result of £ devaluation, I do not entirely buy this, but it will be true to some extent.

The real operative factor to this rally apart from year end manipulation by the institutions IMHO, is that of housing market changes.

For a long time now the top end of the central London housing market has been rolled over and has been falling. This, as is normal has been speading out into the rest of the country. Some areas are experiencing a wave of money coming out of London as people cash in for larger lower priced houses out in the sticks.

The truth is written on the wall for the savy investor, for the time being there are only limited capital gains opportunities to be had in residential property in the UK.

So where does the money go? Into over seas property? Into overseas equities?
Well both of these have been effected by the £ fall, you simply do not buy as much S Korean equity now as you did before the referendum.

So I see our post referendum equities rally as coming from weight of money. People are switching from high priced residential property investments to equities. People who are looking for a pension investment are once again looking at the UK equity market as a good home having seen houses and flats move to far and the rental yields on them fall to low.

I do not know how far this rally will continue, I actually think it will be permanent as we are moving up into a new trading range. In the short term I would like to see a trading range 7300-7800 with no retrace to the 6000s.

Aleman has pointed out the quiet Christmas trading this year in bricks and mortar stores, the question is was online trading equally quiet, some indications from Amazon would be interesting.

Long term investment money staying at home, but not going into housing will be good for the economy.
We will see what Donald has to say after the 20th, and we have the fun of France and Italy yet to come.

[mrphil] 04/1/2017 17:37

Afternoon all.

Not so good for me today with the pot just the wrong side of break even and the SIPP actually losing -0.15% due to SSE, UU. & NG.

Back was worse than ever this morning and I really struggled with the stairs, but after the second lot of Ibuprofen I became mobile again and managed to get a few jobs done from my list. The cough is still causing trouble and is not helping the back!

[skinny] 04/1/2017 17:00

"Administrators blamed the firm's "adverse financial position" for its demise and said the "majority" of staff - up to 150 people - had already been made redundant."

Whatever that means!

My SIPP finished up 0.16%.

A bit of drizzle earlier @5°C.

[aleman] 04/1/2017 16:58

Strange how the FTSE 100 stuck to 7175 all day, given the big movements of constituent indices - such as the 3.4% fall in General Retailers and 2.4% rise in Fixed-line Telecoms. Then we had another small spike right at the close to get a new record high. I managed +0.2%, myself.

Outdoor lunch was never on the cards because the breeze picked up and it got cooler as cloud built up around lunch. The 6.7C high was around 11am. The cloud is starting to break now and it feels like a frost might be on the cards as it's already half way there.

[aleman] 04/1/2017 14:12

If retail sales are weak, where did all this money go - and what happens when debt stops growing at this unsustainable level?



Bad company or slowing economy?

[aleman] 04/1/2017 13:40

General Retailers index now down 2.6% today, after 1.9% yesterday. The Next update seems to be sinking in with other retail stocks. The next question is, can the UK as a whole do okay if UK retail is doing badly?

[aleman] 04/1/2017 13:18

Getting differing reports on the weekly US Mortgage Index so I went looking for omre information on how significant the volume fall was. I still don't know - but was struck that the average amount applied for has fallen from $269.2k to $230.5k in 3 months. That seems a very sharp fall but there could be some kind of seasonality in it, perhaps.



Edit - the MMI is the lowest in its 7 year history. Presumably that means a very quiet market.



The conflicting economic news coming out in recent weeks is mad. The $ hits a 14-year high on economic optimism as the US mortgage market hits a 7-year low in activity?

[aleman] 04/1/2017 11:22

Chilly in some spots down south last night, DF.



Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 01/04/2017 at 11:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount
1 Cairngorm (United Kingdom) 03065 -6.4°C
2 Aonach Mor (United Kingdom) 03041 -4.7°C
3 Cairnwell (United Kingdom) 03072 -4.4°C
4 Great Dun Fell (United Kingdom) 03227 -2.7°C
5 Pembrey Sands (United Kingdom) 03605 -2.3°C
6 Yeovilton (United Kingdom) 03853 -2.3°C
7 Bealach Na Ba No2 (United Kingdom) 03039 -1.8°C
8 Chivenor (United Kingdom) 03707 -1.1°C
9 Bournemouth Airport (United Kingdom) 03862 -0.8°C
10 Brize Norton (United Kingdom) 03649 -0.5°C
11 Plymouth (United Kingdom) 03827 -0.4°C
12 Hereford/Credenhill (United Kingdom) 03522 -0.3°C
13 Shobdon (United Kingdom) 03520 -0.3°C
14 Spadeadam (United Kingdom) 03224 -0.2°C
15 Glen Ogle (United Kingdom) 03148 0.1°C
Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet


A mild 4.2C low up here. It's glorious this morning. It's only 6C but the sunshine feels very warm in the drier air. I opened an internal door to let the heat out of this room into the rest of the house and I've dropped to vest only. I put some bread out for the birds and it almost feels like we could eat outside at lunch if the breeze will just ease. I have a couple of tomatoes ripened again after the recent sunnier weather and a few weeds have sprouted from the dormant plant beds in the last couple of days. I hope it continues. It's all very cheering after the gloomy grey of October and December, although the chilly November was nice too. And the weathermen warned us about it being chillier this week! They should stop staring at computer models and get out more.

[skinny] 04/1/2017 09:30

Good Morning.

GBP Construction PMI 54.2 52.6 52.8

[aleman] 04/1/2017 08:49

Next shares down over 10%. The stockmarket must not have read newpapers over Christmas, then.



B&M shares are up 7%. Maybe it's the fashion equivalent of Aldi and Lidl undermining Tescos and Morrisons. Mainstream Brits are getting poorer and moving downmarket while dodgy inflation (and knock on effect on GDP) figures obscure the wealth reduction.

Middle ground restaurants in the US seem to be suffering similar as more stay at home or eat fast food.



These are recessionary trends. What is producing the GDP growth if consumers are moving down-market, car sales are easing and housing is slowing?

[shadowside] 04/1/2017 08:44

Aleman, In the words of John Maynard Keynes

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

So true

[aleman] 04/1/2017 08:31

The General Retailers index is only down 0.3% so far. It was down 1.9% yesterday but that's still not a huge reaction. Perhaps the stockmarket just sees it as being only a NEXT problem or a fashiom retailers problem. I suspect credit is tightening/getting more expensive due to rising default rates but the markets are clearly not as pessimistic as me (yet).

[aleman] 04/1/2017 07:40

Next sales were towards the bottom of its guidance range, with Q4 sales down marginally against a weak Q4 last year. New guidance indicates 2017 will be down on 2016. Some retail shares will likely fall again today on expectations of an even tougher year to come.

Cambrian Motor report margin pressure on new car sales.

Budget retailer B&M looks to have traded well.